Stormchaserchuck1

Pattern is moistening up now.. I've noticed that everytime we have an oncoming drought in the eastern 1/2 of the country, it gets wet real fast, since 2002 really.

+35 SOI today. +26 yesterday. It's been positive every day since February 24th.. today marks the 40th consecutive day in a row. It's been making runs like this, and makes me thing that we continue to work with a long term -ENSO state. From 2020-2023, the SOI was positive 31 months in a row! ^Even during the Strong El Nino, the SOI was not that negative relatively, and matched the lack of big +PNA pattern that year.

Here's a good image showing how the subsurface has been leading the surface for some time.. even before 2 years ago, it was working with a good lead time like this.. I would have to go through those long ENSO threads to find the older data, but I'm pretty sure it's been like this for 3-4 years.

13-17 isn't low.. the long term average for 100 years was 9 Named Storms/year.. and with the activity over the last 30 years, it has increased to 10 Named Storms/year. I'd say a wild card is if the NAO goes positive this Summer.. we are at a Solar max and it has +0.2 correlation with +NAO. +NAO keeps high pressure across the basin, leading to less activity. Last year there was a clear difference when the NAO was positive vs negative.. It was the least active in parts of Aug-Sept period since 1993 when the NAO was positive, then when it switched to negative late season we had all those strong storms.

I'd actually say a strongly +NAO this Summer (last year we had 9 different daily -500mb periods over Greenland) may lead to a similar result as last Winter with the -EPO. Pacific is kind of in a state right now of Hadley Cell expansion, so look for low pressures and cooler SSTAs from Japan to north of Hawaii. I'll also be watching North Atlantic SSTA's May-September, as it has proven to have high predictability for the following Winter's NAO. Since I incepted a method based on that in 2005, it has gotten the + or negative state right 14-5, and within an estimated 0.54 standard deviation, it has gone 10-9 (Dec-Mar) in real-time/forecasted time.

This early Spring warmup continues to look impressive.. PNA is lowest since October. -PNA/+NAO Richmond forecasted highs: 4-3: 83F 4-4: 86F 4-5: 85F 4-6: 87F Washington DC is currently forecasted 86F for 4-6! I was kind of wrong to say that 90 potential was gone so soon. Gawx posted something last night, that if Atlanta hits 90F, it will be the earliest by 18 days! (they are forecasted 87, 90, 90) For this period of warmth, I looked at what was happening over the NW (Portland hit 82F), and how when the west coast warmth was initialized, models were giving more +EPO pattern. That usually leads to temps overperforming +days.

Nino 1+2 finished March >+1. That actually rolls forward to a strong +PDO signal by the following Fall (although the signal could be because of blossoming El Nino events)

Cold will sometimes produce. Snowfall can be too localized for grand general analogs. Did you have any snow in March? Does Boston still have its <4" streak going?

ENSO subsurface continues to be cold in the central region, which at the very least favors ENSO Neutral this season. Last year I did research on the trend regarding different Hurricane season factors. Here's how ENSO subsurface has been leading surface events: Here's my post from last year which is a 1 year old, but you can still see the long term trends.. I think we had 18 Named Storms last year, 11 Hurricanes. In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states: El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023: If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: Since those AMO graphs, we had record +AMO last Summer, now it's cooled down to be cooler than the last 2 seasons, but still above the 30-year average. We are still on the general AMO trends. The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately: - 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms - The average in the last 5 years is 20.5 Named Storms/year - 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes - The average is 8.7 Hurricanes/year for the last 9 years With ENSO Neutral and slightly warm Atlantic SSTs, I'd put the over/under on this season at ~16 Named Storms, just based on long term trends. Remember, the rest of the globe has not been nearly as active as the Atlantic.

Well it's from +PNA. PDO-neutral is still not +PNA favorability, but we have seen a new trend of stronger +PNA episodes over the Winter which brought the PDO up. Rolled forward, it doesn't give a +PNA signal for the following Winter (+12 months) Per the CPC, it was the strongest +PNA Winter non-El Nino since 1950 as Gawx has researched. ^That is a +NOI signal though (high pressure off the west coast), which is a slight La Nina indicator Winter +PNA rolled forward is surprisingly a slight La Nina indicator for the following year, based on 63 years of data (It probably has to do with El Nino's typically switching)

-3c in the central-ENSO-subsurface.. it's not budging. The trends of surface warming through Feb and early March matched oncoming El Nino episodes, but that subsurface is still in Weak Nina range.. all last year it was around -3 to -4. Imo, that's more important than surface SSTs.

I found this interesting, a +NAO in March has a slightly cooler temp correlation in April (usually they all go in the same direction).

Thanks for doing it Roger. April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 1.0

Not going to hit 90 in that allotted time, but DC has had 3 straight days of 82+ here in March, making it the 4th warmest March on record. With the NAO being positive almost all of the time in the Winter (March will probably be >+1.00), the Pacific is what is needed for cold, but when the Pacific favorability shuts down, it torches.. DC hit 84F today.. a few days ago, it was expected to make it into the mid 70s today.

Looks like they want to repeat 2024-2025.. I wonder if back to back years have ever been so similar (except for ENSO)

Atlantic SSTA's are right near the 30-year average, cooler than the last few years. But the year-to-year makes a difference, as the subsurface does play a role in tropical systems. Because the last 2 years were record breaking warm, there is probably warmer subsurface water in the Atlantic relative to current SSTs. There is also a cold pool right off of Africa, that has a lite correlation with a cooler Atlantic during peak season, but the anomaly is weak right now so it's not a real good roll-forward.

CPC is actually going really aggressive on -NAO based cold from/after Stratosphere warming.

Stratosphere warming is finally correlating with -NAO on models.

SOI has been positive every day for more than a month now. SOI Dashboard | LongPaddock | Queensland Government SOI led this time last year, that the La Nina would not go strong. It seems to be having the same effect over the last few weeks.. It's also been positive 7 months in a row, including March. 2020-2023 it was positive 37 months in a row.

I saw this too.. My observation has been for the last 5+ years, we bust warmer a lot after the coldest day of the year passes (Jan 27th).. going into the early Spring

Thanks.. it's fitting the average time lag about perfectly this time (+15 days in April vs +45-60 days in Oct/Nov!) I wonder if models have a bias at all regarding SSW's and following -NAO's..

Even since Winter 18-19, we've been getting this huge -PNA/+NAO pattern.. it's actually -AAM I love this next image, because it covers a 300-month consecutive period over 25 years.. this is the 12-month total May-Apr 1999 to 2024.. When 20% of the dataset is hit like this over a consecutive period, there is a >95% chance that the max anomaly would be over the Poles.. but we have been in a La Nina base state generally since the 97-98 Super El Nino

We've been getting -NAO's in the Summer.. This is what it's been.. expansion of the Hadley Cell in the Northern Hemisphere, amped is a -PNA/+WPO pattern in the Pacific, and +NAO in the Atlantic

-NAO on models from the Stratosphere warming.. +15 days is about perfect time lag for this time of year

CPC continues doing this stuff every day since early-February.. will be interesting to see if it verifies.