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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    We tend to be a little drier in Nov and Dec
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really getting cold after this Wave #3. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/10m_wnd_2m_temp/gfs_namer_237_10m_wnd_2m_temp.gif Colder than 12z run
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think I posted before that Nov has historically low correlation between ENSO and the N. Pacific pattern, that it starts picking up +correlation in the month of December With the subsurface on fire, it's no surprise to see this strong N. Pacific low signal on the LR GEFS https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ as December starts correlating better in the N. Pacific
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The El Nino is really spiking up right now, both on the surface and in the subsurface, passing +2.0 in Nino 3.4. LR GEFS shows a healthy N. Pacific low: https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ But it also has some ridging in the NE from +NAO, that will need to be sorted out in future model runs (NAO region has been volatile at that range).
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/pmel-theme/pacific-ocean-tao You can click on "Data", then "Data Display" then "Assorted Plots"
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The ridge gets stuck in the GOA, instead of the WC. Looking at the NAO, AO, and EPO I would guess we have more of a chance at snow.. Canadian low keeps us warm.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. one storm cut up into the SE in 2009, and one storm didn't this year? I think the pattern is above average precip right now generally.. this goes back to when -NAO's were active last Dec and March (anomaly).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    The event is rapidly strengthening on TAO/Triton. CPC's update usually lags by a week or two.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are always blessed to have the Ravens to watch.. 25 years of good interesting football. League is kind of weak this year. I'm always surprised that Lamar Jackson is underrated.. preseason 1/20 odds to win the SB, now 1/10 I still think is low, they are probably 1-3/4, maybe higher than that even with Andrews hurt.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a warm pocket by the dateline that in relative terms is greater than the eastern regions anomaly right now.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino is rapidly shifting to west-based, and there are no negative anomalies below the western ENSO region. December is the 1st month where there are strong correlated effects in the N. Pacific from the NPH to PNA... we should be golden for a mostly +PNA Winter I think.. The subsurface is different from "Strong Nino's" that had cold water in the western subsurface.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    The subsurface is also rapidly warming, the highest it's been in the event so far. Also to note is there are no negative anomalies in the western ENSO subsurface (a lot of stronger Nino's in the past had cold water below Nino 3.4-4 at this time of the year).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good -NAO here. The pattern isn't half bad. +pna building
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the El Nino is becoming west-based.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I do like that energy dropping into the SW in the LR, for the first few days of December. It implies a bigger storm system moving across the country. Ensembles are split, but some want to develop a -PNA at the time, which I would be weary of because ENSO subsurface is + and strengthening, which actually correlates to +pna, but the slight signal for -pna is on LR models right now.. NAO has been fluctuating back and forth on models too, but if we get the -NAO scenario like the LR 18z gfs ensembles have, that piece of energy moving to us Dec 3-5 could be something to watch. We only average 2-3" of snow in December across the region. Some Winter's every piece works out like 02-03, this will be the first test I think. I know we have images of Pacific warm air in our minds from the last few Winters...
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, yeah.. but it's a variable. No one realizes how big of a bust last Winter was because it was a La Nina.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas dropping from 3.6 to 2.9 lately.. Under 3.0 implies a +NAO Winter.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Fwiw, Natural Gas is trading at 2.9, down from 3.6, which implies a +NAO Winter. Greenland 500mb correlates at +80dm DJF with NG. https://ibb.co/c6X7MyN
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter)
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z GFS gives us some flakes early next week
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pacific changes from unfavorable to favorable for cold 11/20 AO goes negative 11/24 Models try to give NAO negative as a 3rd wave 11/30, but I'd watch for fluctuations, as the last few weeks has had a lot of NAO changes at that range. Then there is signal for wave dropping into the SW 12/1-2, possibly timing with -NAO lifting out around 12/3-5, but that's far away..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically, when strong Nino's don't act like Nino's and produce -PNA's we get strong -NAO patterns in the Wintertime, but let's see what happens. Nov correlation to El Nino and N. Pacific pattern is less than 0.1, since 1948.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Usually -EPO's verify a little bit cooler anyway.. The Pacific high is a bit south of the classic -EPO position, but the models have been in heavy run-to-run flux and we are in an El Nino..
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +PNA is not ending up over the NPH (North Pacific High) position at all so far.. that (+NPH) is usually what happens in east-based Nino events.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems like everytime we are dry since 2002, we get very wet periods soon thereafter. I said back in the Summer I wanted a dry Fall..
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