Stormchaserchuck1

98-99 was also very warm across the CONUS Dec-July [97-98], which matches that this year is #1 in that regard..

October has a slight opposite correlation to the Winter's NAO (and it's the only month of the year where this is true), so it may be a backwards way of doing things, but if we are looking at a +NAO Winter, I'd watch for a -NAO October, or maybe before.. -NAO in October could connect up with a -PNA, or even if it's not a strong NAO signal, I think the -PNA would be amplified by the tendency.. These -wind bursts may strengthen the central-ENSO-subsurface which is already in Moderate La Nina range, just further amplifying the -PNA signal in the coming months..

I did it before and published my work on easternuswx, but I don't have those filed saved anymore. Here is what you are looking at though, if you want to do an analysis yourself (it would take a few hours). The +SSTA area I give 1.00 weight to, and the -SSTA area I give 0.65 weight to. It looks something like this: Because the northern area has more volatility. I made the total dataset, SSTs and NAO even, by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. Here is what 8-5-2024 looks like:

Latest daily AAO: -4.2561 -4.6111 -4.2231 -4.0094 -4.0707 It looks like it's suppose to stay <-3 until Aug 15th: Based around the Winter solstice (Dec 21), here is the Dec-Jan correlation to July-Aug AAO.. there is a signal there, not coincidentally at the North Pole Makes me like the +NAO vs -AO/-EPO Winter potential

Western ENSO subsurface around 120E is holding +2 to +3 anomalies.. 1 strong Kelvin wave could wipe out that central-ENSO-subsurface cold pool (which is -5c to -6 currently!) in the Fall. It will be interesting to see what happens.. Right now I am leaning toward a warm progression in ENSO after about November. This La Nina looks like it's likely peaking here as subsurface effects in the next few months. I could be wrong though, it's not always a linear movement.

It's going to be hard to sustain a La Nina next year if the SOI never goes strongly positive for this event.. From 2020-2023, we had 37 consecutive months of +SOI! Then the Strong El Nino hit last year, and it seems to have changed the SOI phase a bit.

PDO will continue to be <-2 likely through the Fall.. hard to get that wild card -EPO for the Winter that I've been talking about when PDO is so negative.. we would need to see a new N. Pacific pattern start in Sept-Oct imo to carry through that "less extreme version of 13-14" possibility for the Winter. But I think +NAO probabilities does heighten that chance a little (neutral or neg EPO/WPO for the Winter). I like the 21-22 analog as the mix between the two versions of forecast possibly.

Hey @40/70 Benchmark (Ray?), I just looked at this yesterday. The reading for May - Aug 5 right now (63% of the way through) is about +0.50, making it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO -0.04 to +1.04. Meaning, we have just as good of a chance of seeing a strong Winter NAO of +1 over 4-months, as Neutral. The August 5th reading is +1.00, so it's looking like the index will continue to increase at least through this month, and possibly going into the final month, September. I would guess right now it finishes May-Sept around +0.70, making it a 50% chance that the DJFM NAO is +0.16 to +1.24! (Since inception, that 0.54 SD, is 9 wins, 9 loses, right at the original assessment in 2005.) Also remember, that means there are equal chances of the NAO going >+1.24 as < +0.16.

Yeah, the American part of the measurements looks like +PNA. I think it's useful to give more weight to the Pacific though as the leading area, since you can have all kinds of patterns (AO, NAO) alter the N. American temps, or even local topographical effects. I find using the Pacific more useful when integrated with ENSO, PDO, etc.. but yeah the shortened wavelengths of July really shortened up and gave American a more +PNA look.

Looks like -PNA/+NAO Euro seasonal actually did very good about the hot Summer in the NE this year from this range. They were pretty far off about a cooler Winter last year in the east.. it has a heavy ENSO bias

Weird..

Wonder if you've seen the CPC's DJF forecast. Looks pretty good for you.

Yeah the July number.. I think that means it peaks at >+20 in the next few months. QBO phases aren't always as strong as that.. This makes the ENSO state more sensitive, as a Stronger La Nina will connect in the stratosphere with -10mb conditions in the cold season, likely leading to a +AO. Having a La Nina/+QBO or El Nino/-QBO is about 75% for 10mb anomaly Nov-Mar, which is a pretty high correlation. Having a stronger QBO tightens that up a bit. but a weak La Nina or the subsurface moderating could weaken the signal

My thing with a +NAO is, it has been connecting with a N. Pacific ridge in the northern latitudes, more since 2013 and even more since 2019. If that RNA ridge expands over Alaska, you can get some good precip combos in the interior NE as storms run inland (+nao) and hit some pretty strong temp gradients (-epo). 21-22 is one example of the N. Pacific ridge extending north.

Yeah it's pretty high up there on the probability of happening. Here is the final Dec - July map: So the analogs fit.. I think it was 25 of the 30 that continued the same direction very consistently through the following March (out of 75). The central-ENSO subsurface is still posting -6c readings, meaning that water temps there are 12c vs what we saw this time a year ago of 21-22c! There is a -PNA effect in the N. Pacific pattern with those cold subsurface waters.. 30mb QBO came in +12.53 for August.. so that is heading toward another strong phase in the Fall and Winter... that is my hesitation on a cold Dec, I think -QBO and La Nina favors cold Decembers but not +qbo. The stronger/faster Polar Vortex at 10mb, has a pretty direct effect to the surface around the Winter solstice. Also, we set some precedents in Dec 2021 when the -PNA hit 600dm. That longer term -PNA phase that is still progressing during that month. Because of above normal precip probability, I still like the Great Lakes and interior NE for snow, but now way down here.. -PNA/+NAO is the worst pattern probably besides +EPO. If those storms cut up through the Ohio Valley like I think, we could see a lot of days in the 60s. Of course, there is still the wild card/potential variable that the EPO flips to negative.. I'd give the chance of that happening for the Winter at 15% (13-14 analog) and 20% of a less extreme version of 13-14, which is actually high considering the alternative. I don't think that we'll have another +WPO Winter (5 of the last 6 Winters have been +WPO).

I agree with you. This could ramp up quickly into a Hurricane. Models remain too far NE with the position of the low pressure, which is also moving a little more W right now than modeled. The only negative is that western tip of Cuba has pretty high elevation. Let's see how far west it can go.

Storms are actually dying over me.. a little bit of thunder, that's it.

2 days around 100 after all. Don't underestimate the power of a +EPO to bust temps higher. This pattern changes in the next few days.. Models that had +EPO sticking until Aug 10th completely busted in this regard.

Yeah, I am about to get crushed. This will be the 2nd decent thunderstorm of the year lol It seems like for the last 20 years NE MD has done much better rain-wise than SW of DC.

A little bit of a model bust.. looks way south of Cuba, models had it scraping the northern edge.

Maybe that line in the Ohio will hold together and give us a small derecho in the morning? 4 days of rain in the forecast, and not even many clouds in verification.. The global precipitable water was record highest in the Winter and early Spring, so this dry streak really came out of nowhere.. we aren't even breaking the cap unless there is a strong frontal boundary..

DCA: +1.4NYC: +1.5BOS: +1.2ORD: +0.1ATL: +0.9IAH: +1.1DEN: +0.8PHX: +2.2SEA: +2.0

You can see where tropical conditions are becoming more favorable in the Pacific as the MJO wave progresses east

It's interesting that the roll-forwards for warm CONUS Dec - June, and Dec - July, had August as a break month along with December.. This beats even CPC, who was very bullish on much above average temperatures a short time ago. Something to consider.. the roll forwards were very warm every month through March 2025, with Dec and August being only neutral. August looks like it will fit that pattern with a -EPO developing for some of the time. Doesn't mean Sept-Oct will be cool.

I think so.. I think they had above average for July. I can't believe this is day 3 of no precip here after all the rain on models.. I've never seen so much cap hold as this Summer so far..