Stormchaserchuck1

End of last nights 0z EPS

My last big storm was 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018.

There is still a lot of cold water in the ENSO subsurface. Here is a time sensitive map: Last year at this time, strong cold anomalies had already taken over the subsurface at this time.

Really running with the AO. Here's another one:

While I do expect it to get warm.. and this lingering cold layer is also fuel for thunderstorms, there is also a growing drought in the SW, US. In the Spring, you want to see troughs in the SW, US, that spurs on activity in the Midwest. That's a little different this year with a growing drought and kind of persistent ridging over the SW, US. It may be a more active season further east from the typical areas.. although a lot of N. America is dry right now, a pattern that started last year.

Good catch. +Mountain Torque over Asia correlated with +PNA earlier in the Winter

We still have a lot of negative water in the ENSO subsurface Last year at this time it was already moving full Nina in the subsurface

Natural Gas down almost 7% today. GEFS now has a strong Aleutian High Days 11+. +250dm reading on the mean for hr262-384.

Natural Gas opening -5.3%, definitely gives credence to the warm March idea. However, Natural Gas did rise +60% this Winter. When I released my Winter forecast, it was $2.60. Now it's $4.00. That's a +$1.40 increase on $2.60. So the Winter was colder than expectations, as energy prices reflect this.

Good info, thanks for posting. I can tell how the ice looks different from now.

Indexes really turn rough. There is some left over EC trough from the +PNA, then it just goes all-south Days 14+. It can change though.

It was a west-based Nina though. 1=1. You can't throw it out unless something else that is happen doesn't match. In this case I'm using ENSO, because the La Nina has come relatively late, and the SOI is running positive, etc.. Winter trend though has been for +PNA, so we'll see how that goes.

That Pacific pattern is evolving about the same though.. give it a day or two and the trough will lift out.

We actually have a good West-based La Nina going I went back to 1998, and found 14 analogs to the West-based La Nina event. Here is what they showed for the following March US Temps: 500mb... the important part is the N. pacific pattern: Matches the current LR GEFS over the Pacific.. 384hr

EPO region doesn't have as much ridging. I'm basing this more on the 06z GFS ensembles, and that's really the first run with a substantial difference, so maybe it will mean more if it holds later on today..

I've seen some very cold airmasses bust high on snow totals.. not lately though.

Yeah. 6z GEFS is developing a monster Aleutian high at Days 14-15, but it did that 2-3 weeks ago and it didn't verify, so let's see if the trend of the Winter continues (for a better Pacific pattern)..

Surprised LWX is keeping WWA's up for Baltimore and DC.. Hrr and RAP have been consistently showing nothing all night, maybe flurries.

Yeah, they just backed way off of it. It looks like a 2-3 day -EPO period. +PNA/-EPO has been correlating with +NAO since 2013 at a 0.40 correlation, I wish I would have kept that thought in Winter forecast, because that's what we're seeing! The Atlantic side neutralize a weakly favorable Pacific, as the MJO passes through favorable phases.. +QBO/Weak Nina are keeping 10mb cold, and that is making it really hard for any -AO/-NAO to sustain this Winter.

Models got rid of the -EPO dominated pattern. How fast things can change.. +NAO looks like the biggest constant of the next 15 days. By Days 14-15 they are trying to develop a strong Aleutian ridge, but that hasn't held already this Winter so let's see how we progress, but it's not a real cold pattern looking ahead after the next few days..

Really nice -EPO on 0z GEFS Feb 26 - March 5. -EPO/+NAO has the following correlation in the Mid Atlantic: Temps: -0.2/1 Precip: +0.3/1

Odds of a persistently cold Winter like this are honestly something like 1/10.

When looking at medium/long term guidance... realize that the H5 anomaly for our biggest storms, or 8"+ storms, has just as strong of an anomaly over the eastern Pacific, 50/50 low region, and west-based -NAO (extending toward the Hudson Bay)... I was pointing out that we only had 1/3 areas for this storm, and just having a trough under a block without Pacific or Atlantic help leads to more margin of error as you progress toward the event. Those 3 other N. Hemisphere anomalies are a big deal for us getting a major snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Keep it in mind. We could have done it for this storm, but it was more of a threading the needle situation.

lol I see a lot of -PNA in our future Actually maybe this is the kind of pattern that will stick around next Winter. Lately they have been coming in pairs..

lol 1/50 chance.. run this through 50 times at it goes 8"+ once? Maybe not, but I have seen -AO come north at the last minute. Maybe a 0.5% chance.