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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    You need to read my post more closely - I said "at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there" with the 12ZGFS/6ZEuro/12ZICON showing that for the megalopolis along 95 and the 12ZCMC showing that about 50-75 miles SE of 95 (i.e., mostly off-shore, but still "not that far SE of there").
  2. RU848789
    Almost every model is showing at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis or not that far SE of there meaning a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event is not the almost pipe dream that a bomb is and most of us would be happy with a few more inches of snow. I'm loving looking out my window right now at 1.2" of snow, which should mostly still be there come Saturday.
  3. RU848789
    12Z ICON looks similar to 6Z giving our area a general 1-3" snowfall on the northern fringe of the snow shield, with more for the mid-Atlantic. Totally different setup, though, with a Miller A vs. the SWFE we had yesterday, so more room for positive/negative changes, IMO. Would gladly take another 1-3" though. The 12Z NAM looked quite similar to the ICON at 84 hours, at least at the surface - and to me all of the models look pretty similar at the surface through 0Z Saturday with the low on the FL Panhandle and then they diverge.
  4. RU848789
    Don't know if you or others would know the answer to this, but has anyone ever gone back and run some big storms with very checkered modeling history, like 12/26/2010 (which looked dead 36 hours before the event and then boom! as most around here would know), using today's models, which we know are more accurate, in general, to see if they would've done better than the 2010 models did? I know the model improvements over the years are not all due to the physical models themselves, but are also due to the improvements in the richness of the data inputs, so today's models with 2010 or 1980 data inputs might not be as good, but I would love to know the answer to how today's models would do vs. older models for storms of the past.
  5. RU848789
    To summarize, at 0Z, GFS is a significant snowstorm for most of our area, especially the coast, while the Euro gives an inch or two towards the coast, but is essentially out to sea again (similar to the past few runs) and the CMC and UK are also out to sea well to our SE, with all four models giving decent snowfalls to the deep south then some to SC/NC/SoVA before heading up the coast (GFS) or out to sea (Euro, CMC, UK); the ICON does give our area a few inches. This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, lol. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come. Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876453467453083696
  6. RU848789
    I'd be very happy with a less amped storm that still dumped 4-8" of snow on most of the area...
  7. RU848789
    Looking good so far...
  8. RU848789
    Bummer for the SEPA/SNJ folks near Philly, who got a lot less than forecast and not much more than most of us in CNJ and even NNJ.
  9. RU848789
    Damn, thought you guys would get more - sounds like Philly and adjacent SNJ only getting 2" or so...
  10. RU848789
    That last little band over us did the trick, moving us up to 1.2" for the storm and the radar truly looks done for us; temp up to 28F. That brings us to 5.8" for the winter, which is close to average for this point of the season. And great to hear so many people are getting 1" or so even in NENJ/NYC/LI, which is a nice surprise. So pretty out there.
  11. RU848789
    That last little band over us did the trick, moving us up to 1.2" for the storm and the radar truly looks done for us; temp up to 28F. That brings us to 5.8" for the winter, which is close to average for this point of the season. And great to hear so many people are getting 1" or so even in NENJ/NYC/LI, which is a nice surprise. So pretty out there.
  12. RU848789
    I had 1.1" at about the same time, but with the little band that could the past 30 minutes, I'd bet we got another 0.1", so about to go measure again for what should be the actual last time for this one, lol.
  13. RU848789
    Measured around 1:05 pm, thinking we were done, but 2 minutes later the snow picked up again and is still going decently, so might pick up another 0.1". It truly looks dry behind what we have now. My house is about 1/2 mile NW of where 287 and the NJTPK meet, so whenever someone says "north and west of 95" or "north of 287" I'm both, lol.
  14. RU848789
    As of about 1:05 pm, we're up to 1.1" and down to very light snow, with not much more on the radar to our west, so this might be it, unless we get a rogue band over the next hour or two. Not too far off my 1.5" prediction yesterday and more than I thought we were going to get around 9 am this morning when we got off to a slow start. Just enough snow for a few kids to sled on, although they left just before I got the latest pic below.
  15. RU848789
    As of about 1:05 pm, we're up to 1.1" and down to very light snow, with not much more on the radar to our west, so this might be it, unless we get a rogue band over the next hour or two. Not too far off my 1.5" prediction yesterday and more than I thought we were going to get around 9 am this morning when we got off to a slow start. Just enough snow for a few kids to sled on, although they left just before I got the latest pic below.
  16. RU848789
    1.6" reported in Basking Ridge - surprised they have more than us in Metuchen, but it did look like they had better bands, which is always a bit of a crapshoot. Back to moderate snow again and for the next 10-15 min I think - could be about it, but might get us to 1".
  17. RU848789
    As of noon, we're up to 0.8" as that last ~40 minutes was pretty good snowfall, but we're back to very light snow. Could maybe squeeze out another 0.2" to get to 1", but not sure. Still gorgeous, though, as per the pic, which also shows the two roads I mentioned above, one brined and one not.
  18. RU848789
    As of noon, we're up to 0.8" as that last ~40 minutes was pretty good snowfall, but we're back to very light snow. Could maybe squeeze out another 0.2" to get to 1", but not sure. Still gorgeous, though, as per the pic, which also shows the two roads I mentioned above, one brined and one not.
  19. RU848789
    And at least the CMC isn't a whiff anymore...
  20. RU848789
    Please sir, may I have some more?
  21. RU848789
    Best snow of the storm the past 15 minutes - coming down moderately - not too much longer though on the radar...
  22. RU848789
    In a bit of a lull now with very light, fine, pixie dust flakes falling, but radar looks nice approaching us from the SW, so should pick up soon. We're up to 0.4" as of 10:50 am (2 hrs) and it's still 26F. And brining works by the way for light snows like this: the street we live on, which was brined, is just wet, but the street that feeds into it is 100% snow covered.
  23. RU848789
    In a bit of a lull now with very light, fine, pixie dust flakes falling, but radar looks nice approaching us from the SW, so should pick up soon. We're up to 0.4" as of 10:50 am (2 hrs) and it's still 26F. And brining works by the way for light snows like this: the street we live on, which was brined, is just wet, but the street that feeds into it is 100% snow covered.
  24. RU848789
    Grew up in Whitman Square - WTHS Class of 80. Hope you get to at least 3" down there. When I was a kid it always seemed like south and east of Philly - us - did much worse than north and west of Philly (usually due to mixing/changeover), but this could be your chance, lol.
  25. RU848789
    Yeah, I have friends in Mays Landing and Northfield who are getting heavy snow with a few inches OTG already.
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