RU848789

Did you see the 6Z GFS? Has a general 1-3" snowfall for most of EPA/NJ/SENY (including Philly/NYC) on 1/6 and then has a monster snowstorm with a foot or more for the region on 1/10. Kind of fits your two thread idea.

Zoomed in, since this is the NYC forum - I'll take two of these, please, lol. Still almost 8 days out, so no surprise the Ops aren't aligned, but at least the major ensembles are fairly aligned for decent snowfall through day 10+. I check about twice a day for a few minutes, since the uncertainty is still way too high for Op run consistency or reliability. As many have noted, the biggest story could end up being brutal cold in the SE US, which could lead to major crop damage in Florida and temps near 32F as far south as Miami (last freeze there was in 1989).

Buckle up folks, social media is about to go wild, but as amazing as this pattern looks, we all know that 11-day forecasts are highly uncertain and there are things that could go wrong to wreck the virtual snow we're looking at now. As others have said, I'll be very interested, but I'm not going to start getting really excited about anything until I see some general consensus within 6-7 days, i.e., the timeframe when numerical weather prediction, which is inherently chaotic, starts to become more certain - that's why the NWS, who knows a thing or two about forecasting, doesn't issue forecasts beyond 7 days.

Four below average winters in a row, including 2 duds (3 for most, but we got 24.6" last winter with almost half of that from the Norlun Trough Mega Death Band from Heaven), will make me post Day 11 GFS Op runs. Wow.

A little snow...

Still have over 2" on most of our property... so pretty to look at and walk in. Had a very nice Christmas with our son and his fiancee. Presents, all kinds of apps, burgers and dogs (top line butcher meats), an ice cream sundae orgy and now watching the Princess Bride. Happy Holidays all!https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

Already back down to the mid-30s in most locations and should be below 32F in an hour or two and very little melting goes on at these temps at night, so whatever you had at aunset should be what you have at 7 am tomorrow.

I was talking more about deciduous trees - the dark wood absorbs a lot of UV radiation and the trees then become a heat source at ground level and help melt snow on the ground. Of course on the north side of any tree that provide shade, melting will be less otg than when open to the sun. The other thing that thick evergreen rows can do is catch most of the snow, so it doesn't accumulate much underneath and then that area melts first and spreads. One thing I think many don't get is that melting is not simply a "top down" process where the top (or bottom if the ground is warm - not an issue for this event), but is often more influenced by a "boundary" process, where the melting is driven by areas that first melt near warmer boundaries, like paved surfaces or tree trunks or grass under evergreens, and then that boundary just continues horizontally as new areas of grass become exposed to the sun.

Here are a couple of pics from about sunset. The first shows that without traffic today's snow (no snow was left on paved surfaces from Saturday since there wasn't much accumulation on them to begin with) held on pretty well on streets and sidewalks and the 2nd shows 0.9" on the sidewalk across the street from me vs 1.1" that fell. And the next pic shows we still have about 2.8" out of the 4.4" that fell since Sat (loss due to melting and compaction). Yes there are some south facing yards with bare spots next to paved surfaces and trees, but most yards have 1-2" of snow (my yard is more shady than most, hence the 2.8").

Of course most paved spots that had some traffic and sunny spots near trees (which absorb heat well and "spread" that to the ground) will be bare, but the sidewalk across the street from me is 100% covered (it was undisturbed) and my entire property, except the very back where there are a bunch of trees, has 1.5-2.5", as we've lost maybe 1/2" to compaction/melting. Also, any undisturbed open field in the sun in town has 2+" on it, as melting is far slower when there is no exposed pavement or no trees to initiate melting at the boundaries.

Disagree. While most/all of the snow on paved surfaces will likely be gone, we're only talking 6-7 hours above 32F (and only maybe 1-2 hours above 36F), with temps back down to 32F by 6-7 pm and the sun just came out partly here around 1 pm, so there's only ~3 hours of meaningful sun left today, at the lowest sun angle of the year...so I'm expecting at least some of the new snow to survive (1/3 to half left?). I will be checking later today.

Nice! Please tell me you measured, lol...

Technically, according to Walt Drag, former NWS-Philly/Boston met, who posts in the NYC forum (lives in Wantage) anything greater than 1/2" rounds up to 1" for the purposes of that 7 am measurement. Guaranteed to have that here with 2-3" OTG now.

Ended up with 1.1" of new snow, so another overperformer. Roads are very slippery with no melting during this event, which was mostly at 26-27F. This gives me about 2.5" in the front yard, which gets more sun, and 3" in the backyard, which is shadier, so a white Christmas (more than 1/2" OTG at 7 am Christmas morning, technically) is a guarantee.1.1" + 3.3" the other day and 0.3" in a few small dustings earlier this winter = 4.7", which is about normal for December (NYC's mean snowfall is 4.9", while New Brunswick's is 4.7") and we're unlikely to get more this month.

Ended up with 1.1" of new snow, so another overperformer. Roads are very slippery with no melting during this event, which was mostly at 26-27F. This gives me about 2.5" in the front yard, which gets more sun, and 3" in the backyard, which is shadier, so a white Christmas (more than 1/2" OTG at 7 am Christmas morning, technically) is a guarantee. 1.1" + 3.3" the other day and 0.3" in a few small dustings earlier this winter = 4.7", which is about normal for December (NYC's mean snowfall is 4.9", while New Brunswick's is 4.7") and we're unlikely to get more this month.

Central Park probably reported a trace at 7 am and will report 0.1" of snow after melting/compaction at 1 pm, lol.

We got 1" - woohoo! Probably will get another 1/4" before it's over in 15-20 minutes.

3/4" of snow in 1 hour is a pretty nice rate - beautiful, fluffy dendrites, so I'm guessing we're at at least 15:1 ratios (snow to liquid; typical is 10:1). Almost certainly will make 1" now and that's probably about it. Temp actually dropped to 26F. Nice view of the pond across the street in the falling snow...

We got 1" - woohoo! Probably will get another 1/4" before it's over in 15-20 minutes.

The HRRR can suck it, lol.

3/4" of snow in 1 hour is a pretty nice rate - beautiful, fluffy dendrites, so I'm guessing we're at at least 15:1 ratios (snow to liquid; typical is 10:1). Almost certainly will make 1" now and that's probably about it. Temp actually dropped to 26F.

It's gorgeous and it's right across the street from me. That view was worth a lot to me when we were looking at buying homes in Metuchen and it has more than paid off over the last 30 years. Latest pic from our living room...

Up to 1/2" in 45 minutes, so 1" is within reach. Absolutely gorgeous out there. Snow on top of snow without a single flake melting (27F still) on Christmas Eve, so we will have a White Christmas here with 2-2.5" OTG in most locations here. The only thing better would be way more snow, but can't be too greedy these days.

Up to 1/2" in 45 minutes, so 1" is within reach. Absolutely gorgeous out there. Snow on top of snow without a single flake melting (27F still) on Christmas Eve, so we will have a White Christmas here with 2-2.5" OTG in most locations here. The only thing better would be way more snow, but can't be too greedy these days.

The latest from the NDFD...