RU848789

Yep and we had 6" on 2/12/24 and 11.25" on 2/17/24 (the CNJ mesoscale deathband snow)

I've never seen a chaser/journalist actually standing in anything more than about 100 mph winds - if you have footage of someone actually standing in verified 150 mph winds, show it. Hurricanes usually have moderately greater winds over water before landfall than actually measured on land, due to frictional effects. I'm not downplaying anything.

150 mph winds are 150 mph winds, regardless of "source," plus the radial inflow and vertical winds in both types of storms (vertical motion exists in both kinds of storms) are far lower than the tangential/horizontal winds and I'm certain standing in 150 mph winds from either source will lead to injury or death. However, it is true that the rate of change of the wind speed in a tornado is usually greater than in a hurricane due to the shear/torque component of tornadoes and that can exacerbate damage, but the far bigger component is the actual horizontal wind speed. Also, Cat 5 hurricanes have a lot more mesoscale vortices than weaker hurricanes and these produce more turbulence/localized shear and can behave more like tornadoes.

Landfall... Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

No, 30 mile wide path of Cat 4/5 winds right now; 60 miles wide is hurricane force, but the EF3 (or even EF4) "tornado" winds are only ~15 miles out from the center.

Wind is wind. Have you seen the swath of destruction from Andrew? I also accounted a bit for winds on land being less than over water at the surface (due to boundary layer frictional effects) by saying EF3 (136-165 mph) for most, not the 185 mph sustained winds over water right now. Plus, winds will be even greater above 500'.

There's likely going to essentially be a 30 mile wide path (where the Cat 4/5 winds are - very compact system) across the island which is essentially being hit by an EF3 tornado (136-165 mph winds) with near total destruction of many structures and many to most trees downed. Those tin shacks will all be gone along with anyone who stayed in one, sadly. The EF3 damage description is: "Severe damage; entire stories of well-built homes destroyed, large buildings severely damaged, trains overturned." And some areas, especially at elevations above 500' (large parts of Jamaica in the path of the storm) will experience an EF-4 level tornado. The one saving grace if there is one, is that the storm is so compact, so at least the winds won't be a major issue more than about 30-40 miles from the storm's center, as hurricane force winds only extend 30 miles from the center (except maybe for areas over 500-1000 feet where winds will be maybe 20-30% greater than at sea level). But as the experts have said many times, the torrential flooding rains and mudslides will be an issue nearly everywhere on the island and the 9-13' storm surge is catastrophic right now for most of the south coast. Also, the track is going to be over a sparsely populated area - just imagine the devastation if this hit 50-60 miles east in Kingston, the nation's capital with ~600K people.

Appears to be - there's a paper on it with regard to what happened in Irma... https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982642835418722602

The 5 pm and 8 pm NHC cones are identical, as they usually are, as I don't recall them ever updating those maps for the intermediate advisories. Files too large to paste here, which surprises me. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/MELISSA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line

Thought this tweet from Ryan Maue was interesting, contrasting how Dorian (2019) had Dvorak numbers of T 6.5 vs. T 8.0 for Melissa, while Dorian had 160-knot winds from observations, while Melissa is "only" at 145-knots.. Basically, one can't just go by satellite data, as real observations don't always line up. Hopefully, future recon flights won't be restricted due to turbulence (assuming they can be made safely). Still haven't figured out how to have tweets show up in preview mode. https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1982844394022789254

The view of a peaceful starry night, inside the maelstrom of Melissa.

Interesting. I didn't realize the Sandy record surge/tides at Barnegat and on LBI in general (6-8'), were significantly lower than the record tides from Seaside north to Sandy Hook (8-12') and in Raritan Bay (up to 15'), which were 3-5' greater than previous records, as opposed to the 1' or so above records for LBI. I always thought that LBI would've had just as high of tides, since Sandy came ashore in Brigantine putting LBI on the stronger, north side with NE/E winds. I get why AC and south had significantly lower tides from Sandy, being on the south side of landfall. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nj.gov/dep/wms/download/suro_hurricanesandy_njwatermonitoring_meeting.pdf

Surprised nobody posted the 0Z Euro - just a slight increase in QPF vs. the last run, lol. The rumors of this storm's death have been greatly exaggerated to paraphrase Mark Twain.

We can agree on this.

Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources.

Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet. Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts. He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult. The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question.

borders? Tabloid would be a step up for that rag.

Forgot to report back. For what it's worth, while much of the 95 corridor and SE of there from Wilmington to NYC got hammered, our son's wedding location about 5 miles south of Philly escaped with zero rain from 3-5 pm, so we could've had the outdoor ceremony, in hindsight. However, I still think we made the right call moving the ceremony indoors as there was 1/2" of rain and severe t-storms with lightning and very gusty winds and a few downed trees just 3-4 miles east and south of our location between 3-4 pm (we could see the dark skies and hear the thunder) and there could not have been any way to predict that those storms would just miss us - if they had hit our location it would have been a mess and pretty dangerous. We only got some light/moderate showers in the early evening. Plus, it was way more comfortable indoors and the wedding was a smashing success on all fronts, with a beautiful ceremony, some great food and drink, and 2+ hours of awesome dance music. Luckily for us, our son and his now wife are big fans of punk/alt/ska/indie music from the 70s to today (and some great Motown/classic rock/great pop too), so we all got to dance to songs like Temptation by New Order, Last Night by the Strokes, Sound System by Operation Ivy, Let's Stay Together by Al Green, and I'm a Believer by the Monkees to name a few.

A little ominous...SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion stating that severe weather watches are likely for our area for this afternoon/evening. Mesoscale Discussion 2042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061556Z - 061730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely. DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this destabilizing environment. Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen. One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in order to cover these threats. https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1964357439077200126

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm. Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity. Thanks, as always, for your expertise.

Most of the 0Z and 6Z models have 0.2-0.5" of rain from 2-8 pm today for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region (when we're both interested for the RU game and my son's wedding), but many have lollipops of 1" or more, so as usual it all depends on where the heavy downpours hit - won't be everywhere, but they'll likely be fairly widespread. Most of the models also have 1/2" or more after 8 pm. Below is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 am Sunday.

NWS has up to 1", but obviously this can vary depending on strength/location of storms. We're almost certainly going to move our son's wedding ceremony (4-5 pm roughly) indoors in SNJ (about 5 miles south of center city Philly), since we have to make that decision essentially now. NWS graphic below. The one thing that makes me wonder, though, is the HRRR is consistently not showing any rain in this area before about 6 pm, but the HRRR is often wrong. The rest of the models from 6Z are all showing some showers between 2-5 pm and after that too.

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback). Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol. As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons. Any insights appreciated, thanks.

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception. Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid. Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip. Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now. TIA.

Wow, tsunami warnings are up for most of the "Ring of Fire" around the Pacific, from a magnitude 8.8 earthquake about an hour ago off the coast of Kamchatka, Russia. It is feared that this could generate tsunami waves of up to 10 feet in parts of nearby Japan and Russia and perhaps several feet in places like Hawaii and elsewhere - even the US West Coast and Alaska are under tsunami alerts. This was a very powerful earthquake and, unfortunately, tsunami predictions aren't particularly accurate. Back in 2004, people in Indonesia certainly didn't expect the 150 foot tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands from a 9.2 magnitude earthquake; similarly in 2011, parts of Japan didn't expect tsunami waves of 50-100+ feet from a 9.0 earthquake (including at the Fukushima nuclear reactor, where 50' waves inundated and destroyed the facility, leading to partial reactor meltdowns and release of radioactivity). Hopefully people at risk are taking this seriously. https://www.ksl.com/.../87-magnitude-earthquake-in...