RU848789

Nice increase on the EPS ensembles over the last 48 hours (thru the same end time). We're finally starting to see some snowstorms pop up and disappear, but that's better than nada we've had for awhile.

When almost every Op model and every ensemble mean for the past few days has been showing well below normal snowfall over the next 15 days for the 95 corridor (and even inland), despite what looks to be a more favorable pattern after the coming 4-5 day warm-up this week, it's hard to not be a bit concerned that the first 3 weeks in January will be well below normal in snowfall. Hopefully that changes soon.

Damn, missed it - we got 1/4" overnight. Was awake and watching TV most of the time it was snowing (12-3 am per the radar), but never looked outside or on-line, lol. With 1.0" the past 2 mornings, we're up to 11.2" for the season.

Ice? Was able to broom this light powdery snow off very easily.

Ended around 7:00 am with 0.75" otg at 26F as the temp dropped from 32F at the start - pretty amazing little squall line. Brings me to 11.0" on the season, which is a fantastic start. First is a pic at the height of the initial squall, followed by a pic after it was all over; will try to post a clip too...

Started at 5:45 am was light for a minute or two, then boom the wind kicked in and the snow got moderate to heavy for the next 10 min, then we had a 5 minute lull then another heavy band until about 6:30 am; lighter now, but not over looking at the radar; 0.6" so far. Gorgeous. Pics to come.

Squall warning up - looks like fun...

Snowing lightly now

Radar looks great, but it's virga, as no flakes yet...I'm at the intersection of 287 and the NJTPK, under 10-20 dBZ

NWS bumped up snowfall totals...

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means for snowfall through 1/13, 12Z, generally dropped a decent amount in the last 24 hours (except for the GEPS north of NYC and not because any snow was forecast to fall over the last 24 hrs), presumably reflecting the pattern not being quite as good for cold and snow as it was 24 hours ago. On today's 12Z ensembles through 1/13, 12Z, Edison, NJ (25 miles SW of CPK, whose numbers look wonky on these graphics) dropped from 4.0" to 2.0" on the EPS, it fell from 3.5" to 2.8" on the GEPS and it fell from 3.5" to 2.3" on the GEFS. Picking one more point, White Plains dropped from 4.5" to 2.8 on the EPS, it jumped from 3.7" to 4.8" on the GEPS (the only increase) and it fell from 4.3" to 3.0" on the GEFS. Given how far out these go, I'm not even going to attempt to explain any of this - just noting a modest to significant decrease for most of the 95 corridor at least over the last 24 hours.

At least half of that is 1/1, although I'd be happy with a fresh coating each day...

Figured that, was just musing. And yes, I had 2.4" here in Metuchen and I thought @Rtd208had ~3" in Carteret, NE of me by about 8 miles, which would make sense.

Nice work and forecast as I discussed the other day - by itself I can see the B+, but compared to 95% of the other forecasts out there, I think i should be an A. I know you're using the NY DMA map, but I've always thought that should've included Warren Co. NJ, also, like the CSA map does, as there's no reason any counties in CNJ/NNJ shouldn't be part of the NYC area, IMO. I'm not a fan of having the PA counties in the NYC metro as I think they're generally more Philly-oriented (except maybe Pike) and I think Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield are debatable for NYC, but I'm sure it would be too much work to change what you have and the NYC DMA map is correct - it's just particularly odd it doesn't include Warren. Also, if your 2.4" measurement in NW Middlesex Co (Piscataway) is mine in Metuchen, it should be in north central Middlesex on the map (if it's Piscataway, that's fine).

At the 30,000 foot level, the EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means are far more similar (for 95, inland and even through interior PA, NY, New England) out to 360 hrs than they are different, indicating pretty good agreement on the general idea of a snowy period with most of this falling after 1/5 (all have <1" for most of the 95 corridor from DC thru NYC and even inland a bit through then and).

Yeah, I tried about 30 seconds of getting that bottom layer of frozen cement up and promptly decided to just shovel off all the loose snow/sleet and then I spent 5 minutes putting salt down, went and did a bunch of errands, and when I came back the cement was melted in spots making removal easy.

Again! Since my last measurement of 2.1" I had some errands to run and then I went to Oak Ridge Park and shoveled all the disc golf tee pads (29!), as I'm part of the club there and I enjoy being out in the snow shoveling and walking around. It was snowing the whole time and they went from 2.5" to 2.7" when I was done around 1:00 pm. So I got home and measured again and we got about 0.3" more snow as everything was covered again - bonus! Wife said it was snowing the whole time I was gone and the radar showed the snow - guessing that IVT some were talking about materialized. Anyway I think the final number is now 2.4" which brings my season total up to 10.1". It's just beautiful out there and despite the bust for our area and most in NJ, I'm pretty happy with the result as it feels like deep winter out there - 28F at midday with snow falling - sweet!

Again! Crazy. Since my last measurment of 2.1" I had some errands to run and then I went to Oak Ridge Park and shoveled all the disc golf tee pads (29!), as I'm part of the club there and I enjoy being out in the snow shoveling and walking around. It was snowing the whole time and they went from 2.5" to 2.7" when I was done around 1:00 pm. So I got home and measured again and we got about 0.3" more snow as everything was covered again - bonus! Wife said it was snowing the whole time I was gone and the radar showed the snow - guessing that IVT some were talking about materialized. Anyway I think the final number is now 2.4" which brings my season total up to 10.1". It's just beautiful out there and despite the bust for our area and most in NJ, I'm pretty happy with the result as it feels like deep winter out there - 28F at midday with snow falling - sweet!

Probably the best forecast I've seen, especially for NJ, where most forecasters had significantly higher numbers and the only area that achieved 3+" was NENJ from Union to Bergen Counties and most of Morris/Sussex and they were in your 3-6" swath. Your 1-3" swath was right on for the most part, as was having the 6-10" forecast mostly limited to areas N of 84 and NE through CT and including Suffolk - not all of those places reached 6", but those were the only areas that did see reports over 6".

Well whaddya know? We got another 0.3" since 3 am, bringing my total to 2.1", which somehow sounds like less of a bust than 1.8", lol. Woke up once and saw some light snow and looking at the radar since 3 am I can definitely see another 0.3" (looks like it should've been more, but that's what I measured). Snowing very lightly now at 25F. Reports of 4-7" on LI, 3-5" for most of NYC including 4.3" in Central Park, breaking their almost 4 year streak without a 4"+ storm (last storm over 4" was 8.3" on 1/28/22, although everyone says they've undermeasured a few times - there's a whole cottage industry on critiquing CPK's snowfall measurements, lol), 3-5" in NENJ (Union up to Bergen), including 4.2" at EWR. However, I'm not sure anywhere else in NNJ or CNJ got over 3", especially S of 78, apart from NE Middlesex County, as it's the furthest NE part of the NWS-Philly counties; saw a report of 3.2" from Carteret, which is ~8 miles NE of me and reports of 3+" in southern SI, which is 7-8 miles E of me and being NE definitely made a difference.

Did Newark update at 7 am? They were at 2.5" at 1 am, so I'd expect maybe 3" there.

Well whaddya know? We got another 0.3" since 3 am, bringing my total to 2.1", which somehow sounds like less of a bust than 1.8", lol. Woke up once and saw some light snow and looking at the radar since 3 am I can definitely see another 0.3" (looks like it should've been more, but that's what I measured). Snowing very lightly now at 25F.

Just finished shoveling and it looks like the storm is done, so unless something happens overnight, my final measurement is 1.8", as we got about 0.1" the last hour. Not as bad as it was looking at 10 pm, but still a pretty significant bust when we were under a winter storm warning for 4-7", my hourly forecast gave me 5.7" this morning, and the average model snowfall was about 5.5" (over 10 models) - and my prediction was 6.1" (oof). Of course it's way better than the rain and 60F it was looking like 10 days ago, but still disappointing. Pretty snowfall, though, and loved having temps in the 20s for most of it. Feels like winter. Brings me to a healthy 9.6" for December, my most since we got 10.3" in Dec 2017.

Just finished shoveling and it looks like the storm is done, so unless something happens overnight, my final measurement is 1.8", as we got about 0.1" the last hour. Not as bad as it was looking at 10 pm, but still a pretty significant bust when we were under a winter storm warning for 4-7", my hourly forecast gave me 5.7" this morning, and the average model snowfall was about 5.5" (over 10 models) - and my prediction was 6.1" (oof). Of course it's way better than the rain and 60F it was looking like 10 days ago, but still disappointing. Pretty snowfall, though, and loved having temps in the 20s for most of it. Feels like winter. Brings me to a healthy 9.6" for December, my most since we got 10.3" in Dec 2017.

We got about 1/2" from that good band over the last hour or so and we're up to 1.7" as of about 1:15 am. Still snowing despite the radar looking weak; the short range models also don't show much after 2 am, so I might actually get some sleep. Not sure we'll make 2.0".