RU848789

Not the bomb from 24 hrs ago, but nice improvement on the AIFS from 0Z. Maybe we can still get a moderate snowfall from this...

So much for the myth that the AI models don't make big moves inside 5 days, lol. The cave to the Euro is nearly complete now.

In case anyone is interested in my summary posted elsewhere, here you go. Well, Dr. No, the King, looks like he might be back, as most of the global models tonight at 0Z caved to the Euro depiction over the last several runs of a much more progressive, flatter storm much further to our SE. So, the chances of a major snowstorm have gone down substantially, but not to zero, and the chances of even a minor to moderate storm have gone down significantly. The AI models, which have done quite well in the 4-6 day range this winter, still show a moderate to significant storm (with only one model the AIGFS still showing a major snowstorm)., while all of the physics-based models show either no snow or only a few inches. The cries you heard last night were from all the snow lovers around the world, lol. Below is a summary of the 12Z to 0Z changes... The ICON went from a 12-18" monster for all to nada for everyone (1-2" for AC to Cape May). That's nuts. The GFS went from 6-12+" for everyone at 12Z to 2-5" for most at 0Z CMC went from an 18-24" monster for everyone at 12Z to <1" for everyone at 0Z. Also nuts. The UK went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to ~1" along 95 and a few inches for the coast at 0Z. More nuts. The Euro had little to no snow for everyone at both 12Z and 0Z. Dr. No. The AIGFS went from 12-18" for everyone at 12Z to 6-12" for everyone (the high end at the coast) at 0Z. The Euro-AIFS went from 6-12" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z. The Weathernext 2 went from 8-14" for everyone at 12Z to 2-3" for 95/3-5" coast at 0Z.

Been out all day playing disc golf and just got back and did a quick check of the models and the GFS, UK, CMC, AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext2, and ICON all showed a major to even historic snowstorm for pretty much the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area (and down to DC and up to Boston in most), but the Euro shows essentially nada. Do I have that right? So, who's in charge of fixing the Euro. C'mon, you guys are meteorologists, make it happen. :>)

I've never seen anything like it. 8 straight runs of the AIFS showing a significant to major+ snowstorm 6+ days out. I feel like we might be watching the meteorological equivalent of Dimaggio's 56-game hitting streak, lol.

Pretty view of the pond across the street from us, as the fairly wet snow clung nicely to the trees, although some was knocked off by the wind. Also, as an fyi, I measured again, just to check compression, and I now have 1.25" on the existing snow vs. 1.5" about 4 hours ago when the snow was over, so I had about 17% compaction, which is fairly typical in my experience. It certainly wasn't melting, as the sun just came up and it's 29F now vs. 31F at 3:30 am. Always being awake and measuring the snow right at the end, when that's in the middle of the night is certainly the main reason I often have slightly higher numbers than those near me who wait until morning.

As of 3:30 am, the storm is about over with very light snow now falling (it fell longer than I thought it would looking at the radar) and 1.5" of new snow on the ground, which is well within the 1-3" range I thought we'd have, but a little below the 2.1" I predicted. It's now down to 31.0F. We could eke out another 0.1" or so if we get some additional light bands to come through as often happens after one thinks a storm is over, but I need some sleep, lol. 1.5" brings our seasonal snowfall to 31.2", which is 2+" more than our 30-year average for snowfall in a whole season.

As of 3:30 am, the storm is about over with very light snow now falling (it fell longer than I thought it would looking at the radar) and 1.5" of new snow on the ground, which is well within the 1-3" range I thought we'd have, but a little below the 2.1" I predicted. It's now down to 31.0F. We could eke out another 0.1" or so if we get some additional light bands to come through as often happens after one thinks a storm is over, but I need some sleep, lol. 1.5" brings our seasonal snowfall to 31.2", which is 2+" more than our 30-year average for snowfall in a whole season

Nice, a little more than the 1.3" I have in Metuchen - hoping to make it to 1.5".

As of 2:00 am, we have 1.3" of new snow and it's 31.5F, so everything continues to accumulate on all surfaces. Snowfall intensity is lighter so might not get much more. Roads will be slippery until temps go back up above 32F around 8-9 am for most S of 78.

As of 1:00 am, still snowing moderately, with 1.1" of new snow on top of the existing snow, so we had 0.4" the past hour, which is our heaviest snow of the event and there's maybe 1/2" on all paved surfaces, even the treated road in front of our house (see pic). Looks like lower intensity precip is close by - not sure for how long. Temp now down to 31.5F.

As of 12:00 am, it's now slightly below 32F (31.8F) and snowing moderately with 0.7" on the ground (on the snow); we have about 0.3-0.4" on other surfaces and a coating on all untreated paved surfaces, so things are getting slick. Radar still looks good for awhile, so I'm thinking 2" is attainable by 4 am when things are supposed to wind down.

This. I'm doing my measurements on top of the hard, crusty snow.

Anyone know if there's snow yet in the Belmar to Toms River area on the coast?

As of 12:00 am, it's now slightly below 32F (31.8F) and snowing moderately with 0.7" on the ground (on the snow); we have about 0.3-0.4" on other surfaces and a coating on all untreated paved surfaces, so things are getting slick. Radar still looks good for awhile, so I'm thinking 2" is attainable by 4 am when things are supposed to wind down.

As of 11 pm, it finally has reached 32F and intensity has gone up a bit and snow is now accumulating everywhere, even on untreated paved surfaces. We have 0.4" on the snow and maybe 1/4" on cartops/deck chairs. I'd guess we're now at 1/2" per hour rates, as I think I overestimated before - was probably more like 1/4-3/8" per hour from 9:00 pm until 10:30 pm, which mostly melted except on the snow). Let's see if we can get 2" now. Radar looks as good as it can look without the friggin' Ft. Dix site up, lol.

As of 10:30 pm, it's 33/31F here and we have ~1/4" on the snow, but it's been snowing at what I would estimate at close to 1/2" per hour rates for 1.5 hours, but have just a dusting on cars and maybe 1/4" on the snow, so we've "lost" close to 1/2" of accumulation already and we were only forecast to get maybe 2" or so. Not sure we're getting more intensity, so we need it to drop another degree or so

Bummer - intensity let up a bit and the small dusting melted from the table/chair/cartop; still a bit on the snow. Just a touch too warm still at 34F. Really need it to drop or else we're going to waste a lot of snow.

Fascinating observation (to me at least): the snow started to accumulate on the 32F sleet/snow on the ground maybe 5 minutes ago, but isn't accumulating on our deck table (stone, so probably at least in the mid-30s), but did just start accumulating on our rattan deck chairs (likely colder than the table). Pretty sure it'll be accumulating on everything soon as intensity is picking up.

Last NAM "before" the event...

Radar looks to be ~25 dBZ, but only snowing lightly - guess we're still moistening the column, as it's down to 34F now.

Snow just started lightly with a temp of 35F (dewpoint 26F and a wet bulb temp of 31.9F), so hopefully we'll be down to at least 33F soon, which should allow easy accumulation on 32F snow/sleet. Paved surfaces will take longer and require higher rates of course.

Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).

So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO. Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.

Some of us are already above average (29.7"). :>)