RU848789

I know it's just one model run and it's 8 days out, but there's at least hope - I could live with this in CNJ (GFS/CMC show snow N of 84).

Interesting to see the moderate weakening observed by the hurricane hunters this evening with winds now down to 130 mph (just barely Cat 4). However, in the last hour or so, there have been indications of an eye trying to form, which is often a sign of intensification. The Yucatan could use a break, although 130 mph is still a big deal. Beyond there, no real change as the forecast is still for a Cat 3 hurricane to strike the central LA coast Friday night (120-125 mph) - the center of the track has landfall near Marsh Island, just south of Lafeyette and about 100 miles west of New Orleans and 90 miles east of Lake Charles. Let's see if tonight's models make any big moves on track or intensity.

You can close the thread after this post, lol - this really cracked me up - you could use the same meme for the small asteroid that might hit us the day before election day... https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/us/asteroid-earth-november-2020-scn-trnd/index.html

Surprised so low, when we got 2.75" just 5-6 miles away and New Brunswick got 2.55".

A general 2-4" for most of NJ and nearby DE, SE PA, SE NY, with lollipops to 6" in parts of SWNJ and CNJ so far. Pretty impressive. Got 2.75" at our house in Metuchen with 90% of that between about 12-3 pm and only some occasional showers since then.

Are you calling me nobody, lol? I did post a summary of everything around 4 am - didn't post before that since there was no activity...

Great stuff - is there a link to this? NWS is so cryptic with its info that things like this are hard to find...

Earlier today, when the NHC was forecasting 3-5" for rain for most of the mid-Atlantic/NE (with up to 8" in spots), I was skeptical, since the 12Z models almost all showed 1-3" of rain, mostly, and the NWS offices (Philly and NYC) at 4 pm were calling for a general 1-3" of rain (with locally greater amounts) for the Philly-NJ-NYC-CT-LI region. However, if anyone has looked at the 0Z suite, every major global (Euro, UK, GFS, UK, and CMC), the NAM, the RGEM and even the HRRR are all showing at least 1-3" of rain" with the UK, Euro and CMC having significant swaths of 3-5" of rain for this area with some lollipops over 6" on a couple of models. That's flooding level rains in 18 hours. I'm not a rain fan, so I have no interest in seeing that much. Too sleepy to post all the maps, but it's a pretty accurate take, I think. Here's the latest from the NHC at 11 pm: Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective). Also, not sure how "tropical" this system will really be.

Two camps in the 0Z suite. Camp 1 shows about 2-4" of rain for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (and points within 50-75 miles of 95) on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast, while camp 2 has 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore, for what it's worth. More tracking on tap...

that time of year kids...

Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm? Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly? I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious. Thanks.

bump again - not sure why not pinned...

Agree with the LOL. I once spent about 15 minutes talking meteorology with him and it was clear that, while he has a met degree (from Kean), his depth of knowledge of complex meteorological science is limited, as he admitted when I asked him some probing technical questions (I wasn't trying to trip him up - was hoping he could give me some insight into the Arrhenius relationship between atmospheric temperature, energy and moisture content and he said he's not really a "science" guy, but was more interested in forecasting). Nice guy, but no Walt Drag.

Thanks, wasn't familiar with that mode - maybe they should note it's in that mode on the radar page. Also, I understand the concept of scanning more slowly to better detect very light precip, but I still don't understand why they'd show "negative" dBZ returns - for Mt. Holly right now, there are what appear to be thin brown bands of "non-precip" (several of which are nowhere near Hillsborough, so it's not that). http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/239/ Yes, I know and appreciate that - is there any downside to permanently pinning? There have been multiple times there were storms in other regions and many of the graphics in this thread pertain to much larger areas than NYC Metro, so I find it annoying to have to hunt a few pages for this thread. Just wondering...

Maybe a dumb question, but on this radar and the standard NWS radar sites, all of a sudden I'm seeing "non-precip" shown, whatever that is (negative dBZ's in brown/grey mostly), which makes it hard to see the actual blues and greens (and more) denoting actual precip. Anyone know why that is the case? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Also, IMO this thread out to be pinned in perpetuity and not allowed to slide off the first page, as it's a great thread regardless of whether or not we have an active storm.

I usually just rely on y'all for posting model graphics, since I'm not that well versed in searching through e-wall and getting the info on my own, plus I hate wasting my time if someone else has done something (thanks!). However, occasionally, I like to look at a model ru nor two on my own and right now, if I go to the e-wall and go to the 0000UTC Models area (0Z) and then click on, say, the NAM at 06 hours, the time stamp appears to be for last night's (1/21) 0Z NAM (not the current one or 1/22), whereas if I click on the 18Z NAM that ran earlier today, the time stamp (1/21 intializing at 1800) appears correct. Am I doing something wrong? Is there a better source than the PSU e-wall? Gracias...

Thanks, I found the radar loops (linked), but am now wondering if there is any way to control the speed/timing of them or to pause them and capture screen shots and the like. It appears as if all one can see is a very fast 24 hour loop that can't be stopped. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=100&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

Just curious - anyone know where I could find a radar loop of the heavy rainfall period from Mt. Holly and/or Upton? I've seen the radar totals, but not any loops. Thanks.

Question: I always thought these were the times the model output started coming out, not when they started running. I always thought the 0Z suite, for example, all started running with 0Z, or 7 pm EST, data inputs and that the models took varying times to run, hence producing different output times. Can anyone confirm whether that's right or wrong? If it's wrong, then why call them all the 0Z suite, then?

Pinnage please! (then delete this post to unclutter the thread)...