RU848789

Best snow of the night, by far, and it looks like it might last 15 more minutes, lol. We're up to about 1.25" as of 12:15 am and this band could get us to 1.75 and maybe some snows later can get us to 2".

As of 11:10 pm, we've finally been getting some snow after a 2+ hour lull and no sleet mixed in. We now have a whole 1.0" on the ground, as we had the 3/8" of crusty ice/sleet early on and we had 3/8" snow sleet on top of that by 9:30 pm and we've gotten 1/4" in the last 30 minutes, which all adds up to 1.0". Only 5.1" more to go to reach my prediction for my house, lol. Radar has filed in and maybe we can pull out another 1-2" over the next few hours, as the latest HRRR and RAP runs have me getting ~2" more by 2-3 am (it's actually snowing this time, so maybe they'll be right). That would at least move this from a monumental bust to a serious bust. It's up to 30F.

best snow of the storm under maybe 10-15 dBZ lol...

Can you nudge it west a bit? TIA.

Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner! And the song also has this line, describing sleet, perhaps, lol: Freeze! Rock! Freeze! Rock!

As of 8:00 pm, we've had 1/3" of pure sleet that is hard and crusty and slippery as hell and should be the equivalent of about 1" of snow, mass-wise. That sleet was mostly over by about 6:30 pm and since then we've had more of a mix of snow and sleet, which is dense, but not crusty, on top of that sleet; that layer is about 3/8" right now, so officially 0.7" snow/sleet so far and we have probably 50/50 snow/sleet falling now. I sure hope we get some of that pure white snow ("twice as sweet as sugar, twice as bitter as salt" - name that tune w/o Google). My updated point/click says 2-4" and my hourly graphic says 3.0" of "snow" to come. Crossing fingers.

Has been fairly light snow/sleet since about 5:10 pm - we have a dusting! 27/14F, so clearly nowhere near saturation yet.

Light snow started here around 5 pm and fwiw, Lee Goldberg, Channel 7, earlier this afternoon, cut back on snowfall for most of NJ, moving his 4" line, which was from about Clinton to Brick, to about Belvidere to NB to Long Branch, with 2-4" of snow/sleet SW of that line and 4-8" NE of that line, so those areas are unchanged and his 2" line from about Philly to Tuckerton didn't change. Seems reasonable.

Yeah, 4-7" seems dicey as does my 6.1" call yesterday for my house, but can't backtrack now, lol. I will say that the average snowfall in Edison averaged over 10 models (5 globals/5 mesos) has been in the 5-6" range for the last 2-3 model suites, so maybe it's not that crazy to predict 6.1". And for me it's much more about precip than snow/sleet. I'd much rather get 3" snow + 1" of sleet (4" as measured, but 6" worth of snow, by mass) than get 5" of pure snow.

SIAP, but Mt. Holly updated their warnings for Somerset, Middlesex and Monmouth to 4-7" (they'd been saying 3-5" but noted 5-6" likely for northern sections of each county in their morning AFD and they still note the sharp south to north gradient due to sleet). And my hourly graphic snow went up from 5.7" to 6.1" which is exactly my prediction from yesterday, lol. The rest of the advisories and warnings were updated too, which includes Hunterdon/Mercer being upped from 2-4" of snow/sleet to 3-5" and the warnings for all of NENJ (Union to Bergen), NYC, SENY and most of LI were bumped up to 6-9".URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Including the cities of Somerville, New Brunswick, and Freehold 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be a sharp gradient from south to north across the counties. Highest snow amounts will be in the northern half of the county as sleet mixes in from the south. Rates of up to 1 inch an hour will cause travel impacts Friday night.

12Z Euro and later HRRR runs (13-16Z) are similar through 1 am with much less precip SW of about NYC to the Sussex/Warren border (~0.3") and both have temps above 32F for NYC and points SW and S of there by 1 am. Can't say I like the idea of getting light rain and maybe some freezing rain after that time. On the other hadn, I was quite happy to see the NAM largely cave and the RGEM, UK and AIFS look snowier SW of NYC, so it's still a bit of a crapshoot on what's going to happen, especially on the SW side of the storm where lots of sleet is possible to likely.

Kuchera doesn't count sleet either, at least not on Pivotal. Kuchera is a terrible algorithm only based on max column temp, not taking into account crystal formation, which governs snow bulk density/ratio on the ground, as long as melting doesn't occur while falling, so Kuchera helps when the column is over 32F somewhere and can give some hint at ratios where the column is cold, but much of that depends on the crystal habit being formed in the DGZ, which is dependent on lift and supersaturation, none of which has anything to do with Kuchera. 10:1 is best IMO because it also gives an easy estimate of QPF (10:1, duh), whereas one has no idea how much QPF went into the Kuchera calculation. The sleet question is separate. Some services show sleet separately but most don't. We have the Pivotal approach of only showing snow, so sleet is missed completely, which is bad, since sleet is as impactful as snow (same mass) on road conditions and removal/shoveling (but it's not as pretty), while we also have the TT approach which counts sleet as 10:1 snow, so one at least gets an impact assessment, but it's also very misleading on the snow/sleet depth and many like to know the depth too. I type something like this every storm. I should just save it somewhere and copy/paste, lol.

Nice improvements for most in snowfall over the last 4 runs on the NBM, even if the Euro has me a little worried over its light QPF, lol.

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.

NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex. They really need to issue their updates across all products at the same time or close to it, not over 2+ hours (their advisories/warnings were issued around 1 pm).

NWS finally updated their map, below, which shows Metuchen just about on the 6" line which kind of is within the 3-5" range for us in the advisory, but is also within the 4-8" range on my point and click. This snowfall map also makes sense with the warnings for ~6" for Morris/Warren and Sussex. They really need to issue their updates across all products at the same time or close to it, not over 2+ hours (their advisories/warnings were issued around 1 pm).

My NWS point/click for Metuchen is a general 4-8" (plus maybe another inch at the end), while my hourly weather graphic gives me 7.1", but the new advisory says 3-5" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice and the snowmaps haven't actually been updated (people keep posting the same map from 4 am with new time stamps on them). I have no idea what to think.

TWC backed off some, obviously...

Significant trimming back of snowfall for areas south of 78 in PA and W NJ and near/south of 276/195 is what I was expecting to see at 4 am - not sure why it took them a couple more hours to do so. I do like the single map showing NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC together (although it does miss the northern edge of the NYC office counties), better, though, so here it is.

Door #3 - The NWS offices in Philly and NYC punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not really reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195, but they also bumped snowfall up a bit in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them for simply keeping the watches, as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

Not 100% sure on that unless all of NYC suffers from the HIE, as everywhere was 35-36F 32F with the outlier being Teterboro at 33F; we were 32F at 7 am 25 miles SW of NYC. Would need to see LI/CT being colder than NYC to be convinced and I don't know the temps to the east. New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 700 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park LGT SNOW 36 30 79 SW6 30.33F WCI 31 LaGuardia Arpt LGT SNOW 35 26 69 S10 30.32S WCI 27 Kennedy Intl FLURRIES 36 33 89 SW15 30.34F WCI 27 Newark Liberty FLURRIES 36 30 79 S8 30.31F WCI 30 Teterboro Arpt LGT SNOW 33 29 85 S9 30.31S FOG WCI 25 Bronx Lehman C N/A 37 32 81 SW12 N/A WCI 30 Queens College N/A 34 32 93 S8 N/A WCI 27 Breezy Point N/A 36 N/A N/A SW9G16 N/A WCI 29 Brooklyn Coll N/A 36 32 87 S9 N/A WCI 29 Staten Island N/A 36 32 87 S8 N/A WCI 29

7 inches to 5 inches wouldn't bother me at all, but 7" to 2" would suck.

Bridgeport and Brentwood went down a little, while Waterbury and Norwalk went up a little, so eastern sections of the CWA were a wash, IMO, whereas everywhere else throughout the NWS-NYC area, amounts went down 1-2", which is a much bigger drop, plus this decrease extended throughout the NWS-Philly counties.

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

Yep, I like Lee a lot; here's his updated map (from 3-6" to 4-8" for most). Pretty consistent with the NWS...