RU848789

TWC backed off some, obviously...

Significant trimming back of snowfall for areas south of 78 in PA and W NJ and near/south of 276/195 is what I was expecting to see at 4 am - not sure why it took them a couple more hours to do so. I do like the single map showing NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC together (although it does miss the northern edge of the NYC office counties), better, though, so here it is.

Door #3 - The NWS offices in Philly and NYC punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not really reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195, but they also bumped snowfall up a bit in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them for simply keeping the watches, as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

Not 100% sure on that unless all of NYC suffers from the HIE, as everywhere was 35-36F 32F with the outlier being Teterboro at 33F; we were 32F at 7 am 25 miles SW of NYC. Would need to see LI/CT being colder than NYC to be convinced and I don't know the temps to the east. New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 700 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park LGT SNOW 36 30 79 SW6 30.33F WCI 31 LaGuardia Arpt LGT SNOW 35 26 69 S10 30.32S WCI 27 Kennedy Intl FLURRIES 36 33 89 SW15 30.34F WCI 27 Newark Liberty FLURRIES 36 30 79 S8 30.31F WCI 30 Teterboro Arpt LGT SNOW 33 29 85 S9 30.31S FOG WCI 25 Bronx Lehman C N/A 37 32 81 SW12 N/A WCI 30 Queens College N/A 34 32 93 S8 N/A WCI 27 Breezy Point N/A 36 N/A N/A SW9G16 N/A WCI 29 Brooklyn Coll N/A 36 32 87 S9 N/A WCI 29 Staten Island N/A 36 32 87 S8 N/A WCI 29

7 inches to 5 inches wouldn't bother me at all, but 7" to 2" would suck.

Bridgeport and Brentwood went down a little, while Waterbury and Norwalk went up a little, so eastern sections of the CWA were a wash, IMO, whereas everywhere else throughout the NWS-NYC area, amounts went down 1-2", which is a much bigger drop, plus this decrease extended throughout the NWS-Philly counties.

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

Yep, I like Lee a lot; here's his updated map (from 3-6" to 4-8" for most). Pretty consistent with the NWS...

You are correct sir. Was guessing a bit, since the AFD wasn't out when I wrote that. Here's what they said: "There is greater uncertainty further east due to the interaction with the lingering surface ridging/dry air and overall lower liquid equivalents."

I did this for folks elsewhere so thought folks might like this summary of all the watches for NWS-Philly and NWS-NYC, as well as the map of watches and the new snowfall map. Getting officially excited as my point-and-click is up to 6.9"... Winter storm watches up for most of the region (counties in grey), so the forecast is obviously gaining in confidence, but still some uncertainty in how far north/northeast the warm air aloft makes it, turning snow to sleet for some of the storm (outright plain rain is looking unlikely for any part of CNJ). Watches are up for the following areas for the snow/sleet and ice amounts listed with some comments from looking at the point/click forecasts which are not explicitly listed in the watches. For 4-6" for Camden, Coastal Ocean, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, and Southeastern Burlington Counties; for this area, the NWS is expecting some of that to be sleet, which could keep accumulation depth down For 4-6" and up to 0.2" ice glaze for Carbon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks Counties; obviously the NWS feels there's more chance of sleet and then freezing rain here For 5-8" for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-WesternMonmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Monroe; NWS is basically calling for all snow for these counties For areas SW of the Philly/Camden/Burlco counties, the NWS-Philly is still predicting a few inches of snow, then sleet, then rain as those areas will be closer to the warmer air aloft from the storm; these areas will likely get advisories tomorrow. For 4-8" for almost the entire NWS-NYC area, i.e., Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau; the only exception is eastern Suffolk, where they expect sleet to keep accumulations down. All of the watches are in this link: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm watch

Not sure what your point is. The NBM and NWS maps for yesterday were quite good, except for NYC proper, where it was slightly warmer and little accumulation occurred. I'm 25 miles SW of CPK along 95 and got 0.8" vs. a 0.5" prediction - the only reason I can think of why NYC didn't get accumulation was the heat island effect.

Great NWS graphic on their thinking on that; 6Z models, overall, seem like they'd push that transition zone to the NE...

No, riding the NBM, as per their discussion.

There are always things to worry about 3+ days out, but this is about as good as it gets for the EPA-NJ-NYC-LI region with regard to model consensus (at the surface). 2-4" shown by all the major globals (Euro, AIFS, GFS, CMC, and UK at least) with potential for 4-7" shown by the AIFS, and GFS (and the others in spots) seems like a good guess right now. I do worry a little about the possibility of a changeover to rain as seen on the CMC up through Philly and SNJ keeping accumulations way down and that possibly even moving further north into CNJ, but that's quibbling...

Probably a final measurement of 0.8", since temp is up to 34F and we're seeing melting/compaction so even though it's still snowing, it's not really accumulating much anymore. Still pretty happy with this little overperformer (forecast was for 0.5" and my prediction was 1.0"). 7.8" for the season so far and hopefully several more on Friday night.

Some huge flakes the last 20 minutes (almost 1") and the street is mostly covered again - intensity matters, lol.

Up to 3/4" as of 9:00 am, so might get to my 1" prediction, although with it being 33F and slowly rising, I don't think we'll get accumulating snow for more than another hour. Snowing pretty good right now though...

As of 8 am, it's snowing moderately with 0.5" on the ground and it's 33F, but still accumulating with decent rates, even on the driveway and sidewalks - not as much on the roads in front of the house.

75" is over 6 feet!

Nice band over us the past 15 minutes; looks good for the next 30 min, at least...

Woke up around 6:30 am to light snow and as of 7:00 am it's 32F and we have about 3/8" of snow on all surfaces, so it's a little slick out there, especially on sidewalks and driveways. Snowing lightly and radar looks fairly weak/disorganized right now, so if we don't get some more snow soon, accumulations will suffer with later snowfall, as temps will likely be up to 33-34F by 9 am.

The Euro and AIFS both look great! Most of the snow falls from 7 pm Friday to 7 am Sat. Just about every model is on board, but we're still 4 days away and much can still change...but I like where we are right now.

Today was disc golf, shopping, tree decorating and dinner with our son and his wife then our biweekly poker night, so just getting back to looking at things. Will go with 1" in Metuchen, since the model consensus is more than the 0.5" the NWS gives me, and it just feels like things are trending better right before the storm, which I always like to see (like 12/14 and unlike most storms the last 4 winters). Let's go!

Further improvement on the AIFS...I think most would take this and run, especially along 95.

12Z NAM12km, NAM3km, FV3 and RGEM all show 1" or more along and N of 78, including for NYC. We might get an overperformer if we're lucky.