RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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The ZR scares me if that verifies, even if a fair amount of the ZR doesn't accrete, plus much of us along 95 would be losing 3" or more of snow to ZR - I want it all as snow, at 15:!, lol.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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That's what I said!
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People in the Philly burbs already reporting 1.5-2" as of 8:30 pm (Philly forum) and 0.5" in Philly already. Not sure if early, great band or storm overperforming...
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2.1" already?! That bodes well for the storm to overperform for the Philly/SNJ area and hopefully up through the rest of NJ/NYC. No model had the Philly area over 1" as of even 10 pm, let alone 8:30 pm or so.
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Started snowing lightly here around 8:15 pm and we already have a dusting on everything at 26F...
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And the 18Z GFS Op is juicy (3-6" generally), but the 12Z was only 1-2" so we're seeing the high uncertainty express itself. Might be pretty late in the game that we get a good handle on this one (think the main energy comes ashore from the Pacific Weds night).
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NAM and RGEM have consistently shown that freezing rain risk after about 9 am or so, but the globals either have all snow for 95 or a later changover to sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain sucks, as it's dangerous and aesthetically unpleasing. Saving grace could be that it'll mostly be falling on top of snow, forming a crust and not falling on bare ground forming ice rinks. It also could rob many of us along 95 and even a bit NW/SE of 95 of 0.1-0.2" QPF (or 1-2" of snow), which would also suck. Hopefully the Euro is right on this. Thoughts on how this might play out?
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A little surprised nobody posted the NWS snowfall maps, which show a general 2-4" snowfall with the higher end amounts (3-4") generally N of 276/195 and the lower end (2-3") south of there, although the lesser 2-3" amounts are also forecast from NYC eastward, presumably due to less precip. The NWS is a little more bullish than the NBM, also below, although most of the 6Z models are showing 2-4". The most important message for most people, IMO, is that it will be all snow for the region through about sunrise on Tuesday with temps below 32F (in the mid/upper 20s except near the coast where temps will be closer to 32F), meaning snow will easily accumulate at night with cold temps, leading to very slippery roads everywhere for the Tues am rush hour, as all but treated/heavily traveled roads will likely be snow covered and visibility will be reduced; even the treated major roads will likely be a bit slushy with temps below 32F. Also, people should shovel by sunset on Thursday, especially if they get above 32F and/or get some rain/ZR, since the wet snowpack would then freeze solid after sunset and it's not forecast to go above 32F for most through at least Sunday.
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Will be interesting if we see advisories for the areas north of 195/276, roughly, that have a 3" criterion over 12 hours for an advisory, since the NWS isn't really predicting 3" or more for most - but, it's likely to be more impactful than a typical 2-3" snowfall, with snow easily accumulating with sub-32F temps right around the morning rush hour and the NWS often takes impact into account when issuing WWAs. The counties with 2" advisory criteria would likely require WWAs and it would also look odd if only those counties had WWAs. Don't want to confuse the public.
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When was the last time we saw a model with NYC as the absolute bullseye. I know it's the HRRR late in its run, but damn, would be nice to see this verify.
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There still is along and SE of 95, but it only comes in near the end of the precip at least for me in the edison area (shows some sleet after 10 am then ending as a little zr)... didn't check other soundings...
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Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip. I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...
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I'm missing something on the UK, since snowfall is 1-2" generally for Philly-NJ-NYC area, but the QPF is 0.3-0.4" and temps never really go above 32F except near the coast and soundings show the whole column under 32F for Edison and NYC, at least. It's almost like they forgot to calculate the snowfall, lol, as 0.3-0.4" QPF should be at least 3-4" of snow with <32F temps through the column. Anyone?
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A friend of mine who is a former NWS met said on a sports message board I frequent that, "The NBM is the starting pt for all NWS fcsts." You can tell he used to write AFDs by his abbreviations, lol. Anyway here's the regional NWS forecast (which I like better than the separate Philly and NYC office maps) and the NBM 19Z forecast which are nearly identical. Would be nice for these to verify and break those friggin' <1" streaks and it would also be nice to get at least 1-2" or more of snow and have it be around all week, given temps will struggle to get above 32F through next weekend. And it would be awesome to get more snow then...
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If you're disappointed in the dwindling snowfall amounts for this storm, go over to the January thread (GFS is huge for 1/19-1/20, which of course is still a week away).
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Yes it is...
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It still is the 2nd best model after the ECMWF (for 5-day 500 mbar pressure anomalies)... https://opensnow.com/news/post/weather-forecast-models-explained Edit: that graph is from 2019; currntly, UK and CMC are essentially tied for 2nd after the Euro, with the GFS, sadly, 4th as per the link below for the past month. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/
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I know the NAM is probably beyond its useful range when the precip hits, but it is interesting that the NAM and ICON have the surface low in similar positions Tuesday morning into the afternoon, when most of the precip falls, yet the NAM is much warmer/rainier for 95/coast (and even a fair amount NW of 95). And the RGEM is between the two. Any insight on why that is? TIA.
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Actually, not true, as they have plenty of precip (large areas of 0.6-1.2" of QPF) 150+ miles SE of the coast. Just need to move it NW...
