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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Still snowing moderately as of 5:30 pm and we're up to 1.5" at a steady 33F. Sleet and rain still look like they're only ~5 miles S and SE of us.
  2. RU848789
    It'll get better (I think) - you just need more intensity...
  3. RU848789
    Talk about miracles, according to the dual-pol, the sleet line has collapsed to our SW below the Raritan, while the rain/snow line has stalled about 5 miles to our SE. Still snowing with no idea for how much longer, but loving it!
  4. RU848789
    As of 5:00 pm, we have 1.25" at 33F and we've seen a miracle, lol, as the mix/sleet line stalled literally 1-2 miles south of us and it's still snowing moderately here, but I have to think that's almost over... hey @Allsnow- you still snowing too?
  5. RU848789
    Looks like that mixing line has stalled just to our south (like maybe 2-3 miles south) for now; still snowing moderately here at 33F.
  6. RU848789
    Here's a pic just b4 sunset... gorgeous out there - you can see the little kids sledding across the street in the distance. Not much of a hill, but was great fun when our son and his friends were under about 9 or 10.
  7. RU848789
    As of 4:30 pm, 33F and snowing moderately to heavily at times with 1" on the ground and 1/2-3/4" on paved surfaces. However, reports of sleet in NB, so we might not get much more We'll see, since I'll always remember 3/1/19, when the sleet line stopped at the Raritan for hours, giving us ~5" of snow and 1-2" of snow/sleet then rain in NB - but this line doesn't look like it's stopping, lol.
  8. RU848789
    No!!!!!!!!!!! Only 6 miles SW of me...
  9. RU848789
    Pouring snow here - time for a walk...
  10. RU848789
    Snowing moderately to heavily at times here and the temp has dropped to 33F. We have 1/2" of snow on the board (in the shade) and on the grass with 1/4" on top of the cars and the driveway in the front yard (which gets indirect sunlight, which won't be an issue shortly); road in front of our house now covered too. Maybe another hour of snow before either the rain from our SE or the sleet from our SW get here.
  11. RU848789
    Looks like sleet line may have slowed down. Would be awesome if we had somewhat of a repeat of two storms in early March 2019, when the Raritan was the dividing line for hours between sleet/rain and snow to the north (we got 4-5" for each storm).
  12. RU848789
    Yikes!
  13. RU848789
    Hoping to get to my 2" prediction for our little town - pretty sure we'll get to 1", but not sure the sleet will hold off long enough for 2". We'll see...
  14. RU848789
    Snowing moderately now, with a solid 1/4" coating (noteworthy after last winter, lol) on almost all surfaces: driveway is covered but somewhat busy street in front of our house is patchily (if that's a word) covered. Still 34F. It is pretty...
  15. RU848789
    Anywhere in particular or did you just want to tell us about your dream last night?
  16. RU848789
    Snow started here in Metuchen (we're at 34/30F) around 1:15 pm and we have a nice dusting now. Looks like some heavier stuff coming and I haven't been in the loop as I was out for the last 5 hours, but is that sleet hitting the Philly area now?
  17. RU848789
    Speaking of uncertainty, look at the 12Z runs today so far. Just looking at Edison, the GFS has 1.8", the CMC has 6.7", the RGEM has 1.8" and the NAM has 4.6". Sure Holmdel or South Brunswick have generally less than 1" from those models, but parts of the 95 corridor (including NB to NYC) have similar modeled snowfalls as Edison. If that's not huge uncertainty, I don't know what is. Will the large snowfall amounts in the snowier models verify? Likely not, which is why the NWS and others have ~1" to 1-2" accumulations NE of NB along 95, but one has to acknowledge the uncertainty in the models and the forecasts made at least in part from these models.
  18. RU848789
    I didn't say NYC would get 2-3" as a forecast - I was only talking about the 12Z GFS verbatim likely leading to 2-3" OTG in Central Park.
  19. RU848789
    I know, I said that. I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain." Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling. That's my informed opinion. I'm not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit. This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.
  20. RU848789
    Could be at least partly elevation, as 10 miles W of CPK is still only ~50' in elevation, while 10 miles W of Boston is more like 150'.
  21. RU848789
    That's incorrect. Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good. So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.
  22. RU848789
    6Z NAM not good. Do we call it NAM'd?
  23. RU848789
    The EPS mean was still good for 95...
  24. RU848789
    Remember, verbatim, the NAM is putting down 6-9" of snow in much of the region including the 95 corridor NE of about Trenton from about 6 pm Sat to 2 am Sunday in the initial thump, which translates to about 3/4-1" per hour rates and even if the surface temps are 33-34F (likely for 95), at that intensity melting will be minimal once the accumulation starts (as subsequent snow will be falling on 32F snow), so 10:1 is quite possible unless there is some significant melting going on in the column, which the model doesn't imply as soundings look to be below 32F for the whole column for this entire time even in places like Edison, NJ. In fact, with good dendritic growth likely with good saturation levels due to excellent lift, we could even exceed 10:1, IMO, especially inland. If the model is correct...
  25. RU848789
    NAM'd again...
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