RU848789

Another good map below. I thought the NWS forecast was pretty good, comparing the final NWS snowfall forecast map from about 3 pm Saturday (time stamp says 10 pm, but that's just the one I grabbed at the time) to the actual snowfall map. IMO, that's a pretty good forecast. It had the maximum amounts along 95 and in south/central interior NJ and eastern LI right (even if a bit under-forecast) and had lesser amounts for far SENJ right, but it was a fair amount under for areas N of 78 and especially for Sussex/Poconos/Hudson Valley; however, they at least had 2-4" amounts for those NW/N areas unlike many other forecasters who had them around 1" or so and even had the 95 corridor at only 1-3". In the big picture, the take home message was a moderate (2-4") to perhaps significant (4-8") snowstorm for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region and that's what we got.

I'm familiar with the map showing snow reports, thanks, but I'm looking for the contour maps they put out after events.

Any snowfall maps out yet for NWS-Philly/NYC offices?

Final measurement around 11 am was 6.7"; as of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we had 6.6"; we got another 0.1" after that. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town).

As of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we have 6.6"; could get another 0.1" or so based on radar. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town). It's so pretty out there - great to finally have a decent snowstorm that was all snow and at/below 32F so it all accumulated. Biggest snowfall since 11.25" on 2/17/24 that was a freak megaband storm; our last "regular" storm with more snow was 7.5" on 1/29/22. Winds are about to pick up and it's going to get quite cold with lows in the mid-teens and it won't get above 32F until Wednesday, so shovel before sunset if you can as the snow was wetter than expected and will freeze solid later.

As of 9 am we have 5.7" otg at 31F and it looks like we'll hit 6"with another half hour of decent snowfall remaining and then some lighter snow after that. Starting to see a little wind bringing diem mini snow avalanches from the trees lol. Here's a pic.

Any reports from AC/OC/Cape May?

5.0" in Metuchen as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

Forecast looks to have been pretty good for all of the counties south of 78 (3-5/4-6"), but the storm has way overperformed for places like Sussex/Warren/Morris, Lehigh Valley, Hudson Valley, Poconos, etc., where many have seen 4-7" when 1-3" maybe 2-4" was predicted. NYC is underperforming a bit, at least at the official stations, lol.

5.0" as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

As of 7 am we're up to 4.4" otg and it's still 32F. Saw a report on Channel 7 of 4.8" from Metuchen - sounds a tad high to me, but it's possible. 5-6" looks likely now as I think we'll get another 1-1.5". Stunningly beautiful out there - about to go for a drive, just because.

As of 6:00 am we have about 3.6" otg, so 0.6" last hour, and it's still 32F, which is probably why the snow has been a bit wetter than I expected - great packing snow, although not sopping wet, as I just finished my 2nd shoveling of the storm. I think 5" is doable looking at the radar/HRRR model. Here's a pretty pic of the church across the street.

At 5 am, about 3.0" otg, so another 0.7" the past hour and it's snowing fairly heavily (not crazy heavy but visibility probably 1/4-3/8 mile; temp holding steady at 32F. Radar looks good for another 2", hopefully.

At 4:00 am up to 2.3" at 32F so 0.7" the last hour and it's snowing close to heavily with beautiful 3/8" dendrites. Thinking we'll come close to my 5.0" forecast, but not sure if we'll make the 6" warning criterion.

Updated NWS map with a new bullseye in east central NJ - Monmouth/Ocean FTW...

After a nice nap, at 3:00 am we're up to 1.6" and snowing moderately at 32F and I just finished my first round of shoveling. Needless to say, it's gorgeous out there, especially with light wind and the snow sticking nicely to all of the trees. What I shoveled was fairly wet, but what is falling now are much drier dendrites of a higher snow to liquid ratio, I'm sure.

As of 12 am, we have light snow with 0.3" on the ground (all surfaces covered) and it's down to 33F.

Final pre-storm NBM snowmap. Impressive.

Got back to Metuchen around 10:50 pm from the RU-SHU hoops debacle and it was 34F with light snow and a dusting on the ground. Probably not much accumulation before 1-2 am, due to lighter precip. Hope we hit my prediction of 5.0" in Metuchen (4.5" forecast by the NWS).

Completely agree and liking the latest NBM, especially for NYC/NENJ/LI - first time we've seen amounts over 4" for NYC and nearby locations from the NBM.

Best RFFS run yet. It must be correct, lol.

Almost every model showed improvement at 0Z for almost everyone near/along 95 from DC to NYC and even NW of 95 and the NBM shows NYC with >3" for the first time (3.1") and the NWS has responded with upping their snowfall map across the board for most, as well as increasing their WWA's to 3-5" for many areas from 95 to the coast and adding in quite a few counties for 2-4" of snow well NW of 95 and N of 78. It's been a good evening. Here is the updated NWS map and the latest NBM and the NWS WWAs. Getting excited.

On both NAMs, at least at the height of the storm for areas snowing decently, omega (lift) values are in the robust -10 to -15 ubar/sec in the saturated DGZ, so we should see good supersaturation occur and decent dendrite growth for ratios above 10:1. It's why my guesstimate is for ~4" at my house vs. the 3.3" forecast by the NWS.

"GFS, your failure is complete." Spoken in the voice of Darth Vader. As an aside, the system told me I couldn't post a GIF showing these 3 images as it was too large, but I was able to paste the 3 images in separately. Seems a bit odd.

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).