RU848789

Anyone know if there's snow yet in the Belmar to Toms River area on the coast?

As of 12:00 am, it's now slightly below 32F (31.8F) and snowing moderately with 0.7" on the ground (on the snow); we have about 0.3-0.4" on other surfaces and a coating on all untreated paved surfaces, so things are getting slick. Radar still looks good for awhile, so I'm thinking 2" is attainable by 4 am when things are supposed to wind down.

As of 11 pm, it finally has reached 32F and intensity has gone up a bit and snow is now accumulating everywhere, even on untreated paved surfaces. We have 0.4" on the snow and maybe 1/4" on cartops/deck chairs. I'd guess we're now at 1/2" per hour rates, as I think I overestimated before - was probably more like 1/4-3/8" per hour from 9:00 pm until 10:30 pm, which mostly melted except on the snow). Let's see if we can get 2" now. Radar looks as good as it can look without the friggin' Ft. Dix site up, lol.

As of 10:30 pm, it's 33/31F here and we have ~1/4" on the snow, but it's been snowing at what I would estimate at close to 1/2" per hour rates for 1.5 hours, but have just a dusting on cars and maybe 1/4" on the snow, so we've "lost" close to 1/2" of accumulation already and we were only forecast to get maybe 2" or so. Not sure we're getting more intensity, so we need it to drop another degree or so

Bummer - intensity let up a bit and the small dusting melted from the table/chair/cartop; still a bit on the snow. Just a touch too warm still at 34F. Really need it to drop or else we're going to waste a lot of snow.

Fascinating observation (to me at least): the snow started to accumulate on the 32F sleet/snow on the ground maybe 5 minutes ago, but isn't accumulating on our deck table (stone, so probably at least in the mid-30s), but did just start accumulating on our rattan deck chairs (likely colder than the table). Pretty sure it'll be accumulating on everything soon as intensity is picking up.

Last NAM "before" the event...

Radar looks to be ~25 dBZ, but only snowing lightly - guess we're still moistening the column, as it's down to 34F now.

Snow just started lightly with a temp of 35F (dewpoint 26F and a wet bulb temp of 31.9F), so hopefully we'll be down to at least 33F soon, which should allow easy accumulation on 32F snow/sleet. Paved surfaces will take longer and require higher rates of course.

Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).

So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO. Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.

Some of us are already above average (29.7"). :>)

The 18Z RGEM just showed the most snow it has showed this week. Much more likely that it's catching up to this being a minor event than "leading the way" in any way.

Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations. This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".

Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...

Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.

Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night.

Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now.

UK with significant improvement in snowfall at 0Z, like most models so far...

Just got home - holy crap, GFS! And the ICON and 3km NAM were decent too. I'll still take 1-3", but the GFS and AIFS make me want more, lol.

Tons of professionals use IBM's GRAF model - not sure what your issue with it is. I wish Pivotal/TT and others had it and Weathernext (Google's AI model) available.

AIFS not as robust, but still a nice hit...

In case folks didn't see the big snowstorm on the GRAF; courtesy of Jeff Berardelli... https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022432636526883311

Even the UK is waking up at least a little...

I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.