RU848789

As of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we have 6.6"; could get another 0.1" or so based on radar. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town). It's so pretty out there - great to finally have a decent snowstorm that was all snow and at/below 32F so it all accumulated. Biggest snowfall since 11.25" on 2/17/24 that was a freak megaband storm; our last "regular" storm with more snow was 7.5" on 1/29/22. Winds are about to pick up and it's going to get quite cold with lows in the mid-teens and it won't get above 32F until Wednesday, so shovel before sunset if you can as the snow was wetter than expected and will freeze solid later.

As of 9 am we have 5.7" otg at 31F and it looks like we'll hit 6"with another half hour of decent snowfall remaining and then some lighter snow after that. Starting to see a little wind bringing diem mini snow avalanches from the trees lol. Here's a pic.

Any reports from AC/OC/Cape May?

5.0" in Metuchen as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

Forecast looks to have been pretty good for all of the counties south of 78 (3-5/4-6"), but the storm has way overperformed for places like Sussex/Warren/Morris, Lehigh Valley, Hudson Valley, Poconos, etc., where many have seen 4-7" when 1-3" maybe 2-4" was predicted. NYC is underperforming a bit, at least at the official stations, lol.

5.0" as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

As of 7 am we're up to 4.4" otg and it's still 32F. Saw a report on Channel 7 of 4.8" from Metuchen - sounds a tad high to me, but it's possible. 5-6" looks likely now as I think we'll get another 1-1.5". Stunningly beautiful out there - about to go for a drive, just because.

As of 6:00 am we have about 3.6" otg, so 0.6" last hour, and it's still 32F, which is probably why the snow has been a bit wetter than I expected - great packing snow, although not sopping wet, as I just finished my 2nd shoveling of the storm. I think 5" is doable looking at the radar/HRRR model. Here's a pretty pic of the church across the street.

At 5 am, about 3.0" otg, so another 0.7" the past hour and it's snowing fairly heavily (not crazy heavy but visibility probably 1/4-3/8 mile; temp holding steady at 32F. Radar looks good for another 2", hopefully.

At 4:00 am up to 2.3" at 32F so 0.7" the last hour and it's snowing close to heavily with beautiful 3/8" dendrites. Thinking we'll come close to my 5.0" forecast, but not sure if we'll make the 6" warning criterion.

Updated NWS map with a new bullseye in east central NJ - Monmouth/Ocean FTW...

After a nice nap, at 3:00 am we're up to 1.6" and snowing moderately at 32F and I just finished my first round of shoveling. Needless to say, it's gorgeous out there, especially with light wind and the snow sticking nicely to all of the trees. What I shoveled was fairly wet, but what is falling now are much drier dendrites of a higher snow to liquid ratio, I'm sure.

As of 12 am, we have light snow with 0.3" on the ground (all surfaces covered) and it's down to 33F.

Final pre-storm NBM snowmap. Impressive.

Got back to Metuchen around 10:50 pm from the RU-SHU hoops debacle and it was 34F with light snow and a dusting on the ground. Probably not much accumulation before 1-2 am, due to lighter precip. Hope we hit my prediction of 5.0" in Metuchen (4.5" forecast by the NWS).

Completely agree and liking the latest NBM, especially for NYC/NENJ/LI - first time we've seen amounts over 4" for NYC and nearby locations from the NBM.

Best RFFS run yet. It must be correct, lol.

Almost every model showed improvement at 0Z for almost everyone near/along 95 from DC to NYC and even NW of 95 and the NBM shows NYC with >3" for the first time (3.1") and the NWS has responded with upping their snowfall map across the board for most, as well as increasing their WWA's to 3-5" for many areas from 95 to the coast and adding in quite a few counties for 2-4" of snow well NW of 95 and N of 78. It's been a good evening. Here is the updated NWS map and the latest NBM and the NWS WWAs. Getting excited.

On both NAMs, at least at the height of the storm for areas snowing decently, omega (lift) values are in the robust -10 to -15 ubar/sec in the saturated DGZ, so we should see good supersaturation occur and decent dendrite growth for ratios above 10:1. It's why my guesstimate is for ~4" at my house vs. the 3.3" forecast by the NWS.

"GFS, your failure is complete." Spoken in the voice of Darth Vader. As an aside, the system told me I couldn't post a GIF showing these 3 images as it was too large, but I was able to paste the 3 images in separately. Seems a bit odd.

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).

My point was that they could've issued a 72-hour map (that's as far out as they issue them, which I'm fine with) at 18Z that went through 18Z Sunday, which is past the end of the storm, but they waited until 0Z to do so. Plus, I think issuing a map through only 12Z Sunday, without clearly noting that snow wasn't over yet is more than a little misleading and something they shouldn't do, IMO.

The NWS finally issued their first snowfall map that goes through the end of the storm and, as expected, they're generally in the 1-3" range with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and the higher end of the range along and SE of 95 (and SW of Philly), but anyone who has seen the models knows that 3-5" amounts are still on the table if the coastal stays close enough to the coast. Good NWS discussion highlighting the range of possibilities is below. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 231 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 The forecast gets more complicated for the Saturday night through Sunday period as there will be several different things at play. In the upper levels, there will be an upper level trough digging as it moves from the Great Lakes region towards the east coast. Meanwhile at the surface level, there will be an arctic front pushing into the area from the NW as low pressure pivots through Quebec into northern New England. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure will form farther south near the front as it`s moving through the mid Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday morning. However there are differences regarding the strength and track of this system. The latest GFS continues to indicate that the low may not really get going until it`s off the coast and if this were to verify, most of the precip with the system would be near and south of the I-95 corridor but mainly fall as snow. The NAM is at the other end of the spectrum indicating a stronger low forming near Delmarva. This would keep the heaviest precip with the system north of the urban corridor with lighter amounts and more of a snow/rain mix farther south. The 12z RGEM lies in between these two extremes. There`s also a wide variation in the ensembles. Given this continuing uncertainty, we largely stayed close to the NBM. And the bottom line with this forecast is that we do expect precip to move in either late Saturday evening or overnight Saturday night. It should be mainly snow except near the coast where some mixing with rain is likely...especially at the onset. And if arrives early enough Saturday evening, some rain or mixing could also occur near the urban corridor. The bulk of the precip falls overnight Saturday night through the first half of Sunday morning. This had been looking like a light precip event but some of the latest guidance has also beefed up QPF amounts into the .25 to .50 inch range. The big questions though are where the highest amounts will fall and how this will translate to snowfall. We admittedly still lean a little on the conservative side with forecast snow amounts and continue to indicate a fairly widespread 1-3 inches falling across the area. There is the potential though that some areas could see snow amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range given the general uptick in forecast QPF. The big question though is where these amounts occur. A more northern track would result in these higher occuring over eastern PA into northern NJ where a more southern track would favor higher amounts along the coastal plain. At this point, the main thing to stress is this continuing uncertainty in the details despite overall moderate confidence in there being an accumulating snowfall event affecting the area.

That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm.

This can't be a serious post. GFS has been all over the map, while the Euro and AIFS have been fairly consistent for a light to moderate snowfall for a few runs and the CMC came on board at 12Z and the UK almost did too (after showing nada for several runs). And the NAM/RGEM at 84 hours (yes, questionable) look very similar to the Euro at 84 hours with snow on our doorstep at 06Z Sunday. Certainly not a lock yet 3+ days out, but confidence is much greater than 24 hours ago.