78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining. It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned. Maybe I should have used the word "potential".
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12 days, 15 days, what's the difference? We spent a lot of keyboard time on that 12 day one.
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Need to get that 15th threat about 200-250 miles further nw. Plenty of time to do it.
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The 11th threat is actually worse on this run with the system heading for Bermuda. Now we kick the can to the 15th with a close call. Monster with a 51mb drop in 24 hours.
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Improved again from 0z. These baby step improvements over the past 2 runs could still get us there with just a couple more favorable runs. That energy in the sw Baja has moved well west now.
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The Euro still says cold and dry for the next 2 weeks.
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Definitely an improvement from 12z at h5. Baby steps 12 days out.
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Given a choice, I'll take the 0z over the 18z. Don't need any wind damage with a big rainer. But let's see what the 0z Euro has to say. It will have to make a big change at h5 from 12z to follow the GFS.
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A compromise of the 18z and 0Z would be perfect for most of us.
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It was only about 50. The high to the north was about 1034 mb and the low only made it to 984 mb at its peak. Yet that was still enough to bring hurricane force winds. There was a high over central southern Canada close to 1050 mb though.
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It's occluding when it stalls over Maine, and most of the qpf is then over far eastern areas.
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Different animal. This is a progressive system, not a stall like in 1978.
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Parts of extreme eastern Maine receive 18" in 6 hours at 10:1. True white out zero visibility with those winds. The ultimate blizzard where blizzard conditions last for hours on end. But the 6 hr jackpot goes to Waterville Valley with 25" in 6 hours, again at 10:1.
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A lot will have to change on the Euro with h5 at 0z from the 12z run if that track is going to get some consistency. There is a world of difference right now between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS.
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That run resurrects the look from yesterday's 06z GFS, which completely disappeared from subsequent runs until now. This run is not going to happen this way either. Probably be gone at 0z.
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Euro op is steadfast in continuing to show cold and dry after tomorrow for the next 2 weeks. Even the GFS agrees now.
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It will finally arrive when the cold air mass is retreating, so We've seen this movie a lot.
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I know. First it was the 5th, then the 9th, now the 11th. Being 12 days out, we have plenty of time to kick it to the 14th.
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Hopefully that one works out because there is nothing else in the pipeline after that.
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Despite what all the ensembles show, the Euro op verbatim says after Jan 1 cold and dry for the next two weeks. It's said that now for the last 3 runs since 12z yesterday. Granted, things can change fast.
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Cheer up, things could be worse here. The 0z Euro shows that parts of N Dakota from New Years day through the next 10 days won't see a temperature at any time of the day at or above 0°F.
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Well, that third of an inch of rain coupled with the 42F temp. didn't kill the pack too much. Still a good 3" with no grass showing anywhere. But I expect it will be all gone by the first of the week.
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This AccuWeather guy today sums up the two scenarios for that Jan 8-10 period: https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1872657062758662398
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12/20-21 Clipper/Coastal Nowcast and Obs
78Blizzard replied to Boston Bulldog's topic in New England
Thanks. Many times my hood is in the snow hole, so nice to jack once in a while. -
12/20-21 Clipper/Coastal Nowcast and Obs
78Blizzard replied to Boston Bulldog's topic in New England
6.75" is my final total, still snowing very lightly.
