78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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That was my point exactly.
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I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.
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If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot. Unless or until that happens, these on again off again runs of the GFS and Euro are meaningless. But that had better happen very soon.
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Canadian and uncle have never been on board since they can't shake that sw energy, and the latest GFS has that sw energy digging again, and the northern stream was weaker as well.
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Took the same track east just under us as did the 12z GFS, albeit a bit further north. And the stronger system kept the temps colder aloft.
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Or uncle either.
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On the Op, once that energy in the sw wanes, the low blows up into a 946 monster well east of Nova Scotia. Future runs will have to eliminate that energy faster if we are to have a chance for a monster blowup closer to home.
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You could see early on h5 that the change in the energy out west from 18z wasn't going to be favorable this run.
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That sw energy over Baja came back this run and screwed us.
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Unlike you, many of us will still be up tonight for the 0z runs. When you retire for the evening, take note of the page number and compare it to what you see in the morning after you get up. The difference should give you some idea of how the 0z runs went.
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The taint lasts only a few hours at most, and then only after a big front end, with more on the back end.
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That sw energy is digging further than the 12z run.
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The Op is still the far west outlier with 988 over DE, so hopefully it takes one of those better tracks shown on the ensemble, at least for those who would taint under the op scenario.
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Yeah, looks like 3-4 hours of rain/taint verbatim around these parts, but still big snows before and after.
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Fwiw (probably not much), the Canadian ensembles have nothing even resembling a storm on the 11-12th. And the op had a weak low out near Bermuda. And uncle had most of the qpf heading to Bermuda as well.
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Not to be a debbie downer, but the red flag that I see is that both the GFS op and the Euro op are far west outliers when you look at the ensemble members. In fact, they are just about all alone in those depictions. Let's see if the ops hold in the next couple of runs. I'm looking at the Pivotal maps for the members.
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We've seen this movie before. After a lengthy cold and dry period, we warm up just enough for a cold heavy rain. Then we'll go back to the cold and dry.
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Giving up alcohol for the first month of the year has become a popular trend known as Dry January. Many of us aim to give new meaning to the term Dry January by unwillingly giving up snow for the month.
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Even a favorable track at the end of that Euro run can't produce.
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You can go to upstate NY this weekend and get feet from the lake effect.
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Even during this warm spell, the RH in the house never got above 35%. During the cold snap it was in the low to mid 20's. Definitely not good for the skin. I usually get occasional nose bleeds in the right side of my nose in the winter because of the low humidity, but so far this year nothing.
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I have to use lotion every day to keep them from getting chapped.
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We cold and dry...
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My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining. It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned. Maybe I should have used the word "potential".
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