78Blizzard

I probably just jinxed the storm - just finished putting snow stakes along the front lawn near the street and test fired up the snow thrower.

LOL @ these temp maps. Tells you all you need to know - inland runner vs ots:

It still looks like the Euro vs the rest of the models. The Euro has never shown a hugger or an inland depiction as opposed to the GFS and Canadian. We'll see. The Euro may be about to become as useless as the NAM at these time periods.

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction. When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative.

Despite this warmup of the last couple of days, the cold November has given us now the coldest SSTs for Boston in the past 7 years, which in a marginal situation could be a deciding factor whether we rain or snow in this area.

Euro has lots of 60's for you next week for highs. Many days hovering around 70 also. Didn't see anything approaching 80. You must be looking at the GFS.

Looking at the 12z Euro, it doesn't look good for warmth over the next 15 days. I have been following the Euro and GFS progs for the past 6 weeks or so, and it is quite obvious to me that the GFS for the intermediate and long range consistently overstates 2m temps at 18z time frame for most of us. It appears that the warm bias is still there in this model. Just look at today's differences between the Euro and the GFS at 18z times for the next 15 days.

Back in late May when the Weather Channel put on their US map of forecasted June-August temperature anomalies, they had the Northeast well above normal. Well, not sure about other areas, but Boston was about normal for June, 68°F on average, a degree above normal for July at 75°F, and 2 degrees below normal for August at 70°F. So I would classify that summer period as normal to slightly below normal, a far cry from well above normal. I don't put much reliance on these forecasts. They now have fall temps well above normal once again for the Northeast.

GFS way off here today. Latest GFS, 12z, had us at 95F here at 18z. High today has been 85.

Yeah, this is one time that an 11-day depiction by both the GFS and the Euro will actually come to pass.

Even a compromise between the GFS and the Euro would be a whiff. The Euro has it going even south of Bermuda.

Well, looks like some of those clock punchers might have to learn to code: "Around 600 workers laid off by NOAA, including workers from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center - NBC" https://x.com/BNONews/status/1895252448551543275

Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.

Feb SSTs in Boston are at the lowest at this time since Feb 2015, so if we get some marginal situations in March we could do ok.

The 18z NAM still leaves a little hope. Much deeper system and much further nw than 12z GFS. Also, not chasing convection like GFS since it shows a consolidated system. Even if it heads eastward at some point, it should come further north before that happens. Hope is still alive.

Those holding out hope with the Ukie just saw those hopes dashed. There is little question that modeling 5 days out this winter has been atrocious. Hundreds of miles of movement from run to run in many cases. Anyone disputing that hasn't been paying attention.

I said some, not you specifically.

I like how some are hanging their hopes on the Ukie, where a month or so ago many couldn't find enough words to trash that model. It's all about which model produces the best outcome or the most snow.

More favorable trends tonight on the Euro for Sunday and day 10.

Both the Euro and the GFS 12z runs paint a cold 2 weeks ahead, well below normal, sun angle or not.

If dews are in the 50's, doesn't it follow that the temps are also?

Euro op is all alone with temps in the 50's in SNE. None of the other ops or ensembles are even close to that.

18z GFS showed the PV further west than at 12z, so obviously it moved closer to the Euro.

The EPS looks even worse than the op. That PV seems to be retrograding.