78Blizzard

Euro says "What torch"?

I'd hate to hang my hat on the Ukie, especially now since the Euro went east like the GFS.

Except that now the Euro looks like the GEM, .

The lowest they got down to in 2015 was 36º F. As of Feb 7, the 2015 temp was 1.8º F higher, 37.6º F vs 39.4º F.

Boston SSTs now coldest since 2009. https://seatemperature.info/february/boston-water-temperature.html

Any stats available on the verification for the AI models?

18z Ukie has widespread 2-3" for most on Wednesday. Nice refresher.

Meanwhile, the actual GFS 12z op looks nothing like that for the one third of the country in the east. I wonder what AI uses for its sources?

Those southern and eastern outliers have the mean further SE than would otherwise be the case.

This is the 3rd crack at this by the Euro. It lost it twice. Is the 3rd time the charm?

Euro = days and days of snow.

Try pivotal and you won't get the same result.

Pivotal snow algorithm has a problem, as they show the 18z GFS with .4" qpf here and just 2" of snow. Kuchera is also wrong.

You can be sure that if this was/turns out to be a rainer, it will verify.

Here's the answer I got from AI when I plug in the -1.9F others reported: "Boston's January 2026 weather was 1.9°F below normal, with a monthly mean temperature of 29.4°F compared to the typical average of 29.9°F. The coldest temperatures occurred mid-to-late January, with lows dropping to -13°F on January 26 and -18°F on January 21. Despite the cold, snowfall was moderate, with 10 snowy days recorded, and total precipitation at 1.76 inches, which is 52% of the normal January rainfall. The month began with milder conditions, peaking at 53°F on January 15, but rapidly cooled as the month progressed." They show a mean of 29.4F and an average of 29.9F, a difference of -0.5, hardly -1.9. And Boston certainly didn't get to -13F and -18F during the month. If this is how AI is going to work, I'll never use it again.

That's what I get for going to AI for the answer.

Hard to believe that Boston was only 0.4 degrees F below normal for January. I'm sure many suburbs around the city were much colder than that.

Hopefully this 7-day forecast will work out better than your 5-day prediction for this latest miss.

We cold and dry... The only good to come out of this is that SST's are the lowest in 12 years, so any marginal storms in March may work in our favor.

Looks like the Euro on next Thursday gives us a repeat performance of this Sunday's scenario.

Well, it's up to the Euro now. A day or two ago it was the GFS against the world. Will it now be the Euro against the world? If the Euro caves, it may be time to move on to the next threat.

Did the AI agent weight all these models the same, without regard for the crap that some of them are?

Looks like he bought the 18z Euro.

Yeah, maybe the GFS and Euro both burped in opposite ways, and they will both find the middle ground at 0z.

We went from 12 good hits for E MA on the last run to 20 or so on this run. I got my microscope out.