78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Start taken' 'em up... -
Ukie was improved for coastal and SEMA areas from 12z.
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No, I think you have to go back a bit further than that. The last couple of years have been crap here.
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Yes, it is a win, but just saying...
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I just hate to be in or near the bullseye in many of these models with 2.5 days to go. It usually doesn't work out.
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Reggie weaker this run.
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The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.
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Much colder at the surface.
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TV mets say rain and up to 4" inside 95, yet Euro (and GFS) says those areas get the heaviest snow, clown map or not. Other clowns say the same. The same clown maps have no problem showing rain for the CMC, NAM and even the Ukie.
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I think they are letting those 45° SSTs get to them. Using the Euro and GFS, I don't see anything supporting rain beyond 3-4 miles of the coast.
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925 temps crash lower after 09z when the good stuff gets going. -2C° at 9z here and heading lower from there.
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The RGEM track was almost a carbon copy of 12z's run. Seems to have locked in on that, at least until we get to 0z, lol.
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Looks like it may be a bit colder this run.
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That's about what I was thinking, too. I have seen various model runs over the past couple of days enhancing the snow in this general area. We'll see.
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925's get no higher than -3°C here, so taint should be very minimal, if at all.
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Gfs bombing out late gives the outer cape the good stuff.
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That's a 50% cutback in qpf from the 12z run at that time frame.
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Looks like some of those Pac flights are recon for the 9-10th storm.
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Probably quick on the draw since they had few opportunities last year, lol.
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Is this depiction telling us that the models do not weigh marine influence very accurately?
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Yeah, that 10th storm could cause some real flooding problems with that snowpack.
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2nd half of storm is quite cold, too with 2m temps dropping into lower 20's.
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Actually a bit further north than the Ukie.
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Wow, similar track to Ukie and with the qpf, too.
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I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on the Ukie. Although it was pretty consistent from 12z to 0z. Just strange that the further south track led to more qpf in much of SNE. It is definitely the wettest of the models.
