78Blizzard

Sign me up for that bullseye. I know it's the CMC, but that solution makes more sense than the GFS to me.

Beggars can't be choosers. We take whatever flakes we can get these days.

Both the 3 km NAM and the RGEM show OES for Monday for much of E and SE MA.

You would think that after kicking the tying and winning field goals in the "tuck rule" game in near blizzard type conditions, that a little snow in KC wouldn't bother him.

Really surprised at Indy's ineptness so far. Not over by any means, but doesn't look good for a Foxboro snowbowl next week if the Pats get by the Chargers.

I agree, but the way things have been going, the shutdown will probably end when winter is near an end. At least it will help for hurricane season.

I think the facts of what he said are correct. No one is there to adjust the GFS for the new data input format, so data that is available and readable by the other global models should be more reliable. I don't know about the CMC, though, lol.

I referred to this blurb from a Washington Post article several days ago: "The current Global Forecast System - or the GFS - the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data."

Based on that run, Jimmy will be getting the last laugh on the rest of us.

I should have said for the 20-21st.

Don't bother looking at the GFS or CMC @ 0z.

I saw today where Vail Resorts stock was down $27, or 13% from yesterday. They reported much lower pre-holiday resort visits. I hadn't heard of any poor conditions there nor a lack of snow. I wonder how NNE ski areas are holding up?

I did mention a couple of days ago that it had a pressure drop of 62mb within 24 hours. I believe the biggest such drop in 24 hours was 97mb during Hurricane Wilma in 2005, from 979mb to 882mb. Still, for a non-tropical system that is quite impressive. I would take a benchmark system with half that drop with all that cold air to the north.

I'm same age as Jerry, 72 last Saturday.

I've shoveled a lot of "potential" this winter thus far.

Here's a bomb in the Pacific heading for the Aleutians. There was a 62mb drop in 24 hours from 999mb to 937mb. I'm ordering a benchmark one of those for us.

That was the only model showing such a westward solution. My point was to not get invested in CMC D9 progs.

Here's a reminder of what the CMC had on D9 for this Sunday. How did that work out?

Given the history of this winter thus far, I wouldn't be surprised if those LR systems verify.

Enjoy your cirrus.

That member out near Bermuda is skewing the mean.

I'd love to see the FV3 score a coup on this with the consistency it has shown. Otherwise, it will be at the bottom of the pack for verification, at least in the intermediate range.

Actually, according to this it has a better verification than the GFS:

There's always the JMA. Actually, it was close at 12z to the look we want. I'd even take that solution here.

Right, and that was mentioned in that WP article earlier, too.