78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Extrapolating the NAM out to 90 hrs, its position would be just about where the Euro had it at 96 hrs.
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Looks like the Ukie had the right idea all along with an offshore system. We don't want any more SE trends though on either the Euro or the UK. Maybe just tics.
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Remarkably similar to UK @ 72 hrs.
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The Ukie has been the only model consistently offshore. It just isn't buying these onshore and hugger solutions. I expect to see the Euro move SE towards it.
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Two of your posts disappeared. Does that mean you're not getting 20"?
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850 still gets above 0°C at hr 120 (and before that) for half of CT, RI, eastern areas of MA and the coast line up thru ME, so still have that to contend with on this run.
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ASOUT will have to do.
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Euro looks good thru hr 96, similar to Ukie.
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We're getting closer to ticky, tic time.
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We'll await the Euro, but thus far most of the 0z guidance has narrowed the spread of the track. And it has been favorable for much of us.
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But much better than what we were looking at earlier today in most of the models.
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Nice trends tonight, but as usual, we await the master.
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The orientation of the isobars would seem to indicate that it came up from E of the Delmarva.
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0z UK isn't showing yet on CMC site.
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Duh!
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For once, NAM led the way on the 0z runs, so far anyway.
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You can see on the two panels that the GFS has the thrust of the leading edge of the PV pushing down more in the upper plains, while the NAM is pushing down more toward us and less out west.
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With the usual caveat, the 850 thermals are a lot colder on the 0z NAM at hr 84 than those on the 18z GFS at hr 90.
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That PV is really pressing down on the 0z NAM.
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The major difference between the GFS and the ICON is the timing. At 12z Sunday the GFS has the low over Albany, while the ICON has it in KY. The Ukie today has it in NW GA. We need to see the GFS start slowing things up. Also the Euro, as it was midway between the GFS and the IKON at the WV PA border.
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Let's see what the UK shows tonight. If it stays well south and east, it might be time to rethink what the rest of the globals are putting out. I'm betting it comes back well NW, but still stays offshore.
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Let's split the difference between the Euro and Ukie, the two best globals.
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You can see that pv @ 850 pushing down into Maine from previous runs.
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Hopefully the Ukie is a prelude to the upcoming Euro. Right now I'd take a compromise between the Ukie and the GEFS.
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The ICON map only shows snow and rain, not other frozen precip, so the sharp cutoff makes sense.
