78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Speaking of the Sox, pitchers and catchers report in a little over 2 weeks- the clearest sign that winter is ebbing.
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By Jan. 22, weekly ice coverage across all five Great Lakes was at 23 percent, according to the Canadian Ice Service of Environment Canada. That's slightly above the 30-year average (1981-2010) of about 19 percent for that week. After next week those numbers are going to skyrocket. But in the meantime, the lake effect snows should be substantial in places where the ice has not taken hold yet, Buffalo for one such place.
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GFS has no problem telling Fargo that they won't sniff 0°F for a high next week until sometime on Friday.
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I was talking southern PA, not western PA. Try near Gettysburg. It was still snowing in MD south of there at 01z.
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https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar
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The rain line is nowhere near this far into southern PA.
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And the NAM had the rain line well into southern PA at 01z.
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The folly of some on-air mets (Harvey included) putting out big snow amounts 72 hrs before the event, especially with the uncertainty in this system.
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Ukie goes right thru Central CT.
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Quite the spread in thermals @ h925 on the 12z GFS and NAM for BOS at 12z Sunday. GFS was 5°C and NAM was -6°C. This still has real bust potential.
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Not buying this crap, especially all that subsidence in NH.
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The problem is that its about 2°C warmer at h800.
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Looks to be just about where it was at 12z @ hr 72.
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Talk about a useless model. They deep-sixed the NOGAPS for it, but it hasn't been much of an improvement. If they are looking for ways to save money in DC, one way would be to eliminate this model.
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Which one do you believe?:
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I'd still take the 14" of frozen it is dishing for my hood, with surface staying below 0°C.
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That's what many of us are banking on.
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30-50 mile wobbles to the south could mean 12" instead of 6" for places like BOS.
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Definitely a colder run than 12z. Warmest I get here at 850 is 1°C at hr 96, vs 5°C on the 12z. But can't see between hr 72 and hr 96.
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Steadfast throughout. If this verifies, they should have the top score.
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I've noticed that the 0z model guidance has been faster than 18z just about across the board.
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I was watching Weather Underground on TWC tonight and they showed how each run of the Euro has been steadily increasing the snow amounts for us. They said they just upped their forecasted snow amounts after the 18z Euro came in, although their amounts are still probably half of what the 12z Euro shows.
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The FV3 is as bad as the GFS, not surprisingly.
