78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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The king will soon tell us how much stock to put in that gfs run.
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Yeah, up in Alaska and the Yukon for days 12-16 in one 6-hour run it went from surface temps in the +teens and low 20's to 20-30 below, lol.
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Scratch the ICON.
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Whatever Weymouth is or is not, they have had their share of bullseyes over the years.
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It looks like it'll be a long winter here, given that we aren't even there yet, meteorologically or otherwise.
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Looks like low to mid 70's for you.
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At least the trend on the GFS and the Ukie were in the right direction this run. Hopefully the king will agree.
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Your time is coming: "Nhc suggests intensification before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strength until it passes Northern Newfoundland." https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/technical_discussion_e.html
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Those clouds are the forerunners of Dorian. They reach all the way to NS now.
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I closed the pool down yesterday. We may get an 80ºF day next week, but with night time temps in the 50's, the water cools down very quickly along with the lower sun angle.
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0z NAM shows a strengthening system after it passes HSE until SE of the Cape. If extrapolated, it looks to turn slightly toward the NNE into NS. The 18z GFS also showed Dorian strengthening but not as much.
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Way west this run- only 100 mi off the elbow. Probably extratropical by then, although still near hurricane strength. ACK with close to 24 hrs of tropical storm winds.
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Can someone explain why when the GFS or many of the other models initialize, that the pressure reading is nowhere near the actual? It shows Dorian strengthening while it is more likely to be weakening as it moves north, especially from where the intensity is now.
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Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1
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Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
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This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.
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I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.
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What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out. If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol. I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.
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It takes people's minds off the tariffs that went into effect today.
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He's not a weather nut like the rest of us.
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Euro further west with a direct hit at Cape Hatteras with a strengthening system after weakening further south.
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Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL. That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods. I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.
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18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville. Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2.
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I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.
