78Blizzard

Let's see if the Euro follows.

Pivotal has issues with the 06z Para snow map, lol.

Actually, I think they went from 12 hr maps to 6 hrs.

Temps there in that run are around -60F.

We have 12 days to get this about 400 mi or so north.

With such little ice cover on the GL, we could be seeing the lake effect snows extending even into March this year.

Heh...

The 18z GFS and Para couldn't be further apart at h5. Model chaos.

RGEM is a carbon copy of the 12z GGEM.

Right. We went from passing gas and bagels yesterday to comparing one weenie 8d Euro op run to days of yore.

Take a good look at it, because you probably won't see another 960 mb low at the benchmark on any model the rest of the winter.

At least we have an active thread. There hasn't been a post in the NYC and Philly threads for hours.

Yeah, we've all shoveled a lot of potential over the years.

The hype begins: "Should the storm develop to its full potential, blizzard conditions can't be ruled out," Pastelok stated. Yet, near the end of that piece we have " At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting mainly dry conditions with temperatures a bit below average, in the upper 30s, for Washington, D.C., on Inauguration Day. Conditions should allow for at least partial sunshine."

A 0 to +1F prog for most of SNE and NNE will hardly prevent snow chances given a favorable pattern if that is what Bamwx is trying to convey in so many words.

Yeah, and the 18z GFS said now it's the 26th and gave us the final FU with that system going SE from NC to Bermuda. And follows up with another cutter at the end of the run.

I still say that anomalous snows in October are not good juju for the winter ahead.

From Judah Cohen's blog today: "So though currently widespread normal to above normal temperatures exist across much of Canada and the US, temperatures are predicted to turn colder across both Canada and the US over the next two weeks." ..." I am skeptical of models forecasts beyond a week, I expect the models to struggle. Second even if the cold air settles in western North America for a period, as winter progresses, I expect the cold air to come east with time not unlike 2012/13 and 2017/18. Most of the time you expect the cavalry to show up and it does but not always. And two winters when I waited, and waited for the cavalry to show up (aka the cold air) but it never did are winters 2005/06 and to a lesser extent 2018/19. I am not expecting a repeat of those winters, but it is certainly possible... " https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

NCEP having issues again with the GFS run?

Ukie has a nice rainer next Saturday, thanks to a lousy air mass.

Nice try...

I don't think we were talking in the singular that year.

Funny how a few years ago, 2015 to be exact, no one cared what was the definition of the coastal plain or the interior. It didn't seem to matter much then.

At least we have SSTs going down for the next couple of months.

Days and days of melts...