78Blizzard

From Judah Cohen's blog today: "So though currently widespread normal to above normal temperatures exist across much of Canada and the US, temperatures are predicted to turn colder across both Canada and the US over the next two weeks." ..." I am skeptical of models forecasts beyond a week, I expect the models to struggle. Second even if the cold air settles in western North America for a period, as winter progresses, I expect the cold air to come east with time not unlike 2012/13 and 2017/18. Most of the time you expect the cavalry to show up and it does but not always. And two winters when I waited, and waited for the cavalry to show up (aka the cold air) but it never did are winters 2005/06 and to a lesser extent 2018/19. I am not expecting a repeat of those winters, but it is certainly possible... " https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

NCEP having issues again with the GFS run?

Ukie has a nice rainer next Saturday, thanks to a lousy air mass.

Nice try...

I don't think we were talking in the singular that year.

Funny how a few years ago, 2015 to be exact, no one cared what was the definition of the coastal plain or the interior. It didn't seem to matter much then.

At least we have SSTs going down for the next couple of months.

Days and days of melts...

The 18z GFS likes the Euro's idea of a cutter thru Buffalo on the 19th. We are used to 10d cutters verifying while 10d snowstorms disappear into a black hole.

Doesn't look all that much different from 12z yesterday.

It's just a sign of the times.

Euro prefers a cutter for the 19th.

Maybe if we start the tropical thread the reverse juju might conjure up a HECS, lol.

Brutal cold near the end of that GFS run for ND and MN with Temps -30 to -35F.

As is verbatim, some ME peeps would be happy with it.

I think you let politics into one of your posts the other day, lol.

Do any mets here know whether any of the global models have the capability to factor into their prediction systems the effects of the onset of a major SSW?

Close the shades until then.

The text of the 1-3 above normal for C and SNE doesn't correspond with what the map is showing, at least according to the legend at the bottom. It looks to be 0-1 above.

Euro still all alone for the 12th. CMC says no go.

Looks like the para gave up after one run with the day 6 system, in line with the GFS.

Just being consistent with its run last night showing 10 days of quiet. Actually that run was quiet for the whole 16 day period. Probably not going to happen that way, though.

GFS still doesn't like the day 6 system. We'll see what the para says, if it follows thru with its last run.

We need more than an 18z run of the Para. Remember, yesterday the Euro was the only one with the 12th system. They lost it subsequently. Now the Para is the only one with it.

GFS looks fairly quiet for the next 10 days with a couple of clippers on the 14th and 15th. No sign of that Euro 12th hugger @ 12z.