78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south. And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also. In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah. Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.
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It's still progged as a CAT 2 in NE FL on Wednesday evening. Very slow moving. If that high to our north is slow to move out later in the week, this could come closer to us as it deteriorates in cooler waters.
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Just took the trash out and was surprised to see ice pellets mixed in with the rain here.
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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?
78Blizzard replied to powderfreak's topic in New England
0z FV3 has a nice couple of inches in E MA. -
And the JMA had nothing, except to keep 850 below 0°C for all.
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NAM stalling the system down south long enough to scour out all the cold air, with the 850 0°C line almost to the Canadian, VT, NH border, lol.
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If FV3 scores a coup on this one with the regular gfs not biting until later perhaps, I would expect to see the FV3 taking over from the regular gfs sooner rather than later. That is a big IF, however.
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Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
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It looks a bit west of yesterday's 12z run. Plenty of time for more tics west.
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The final FU to SNE this winter is a rare bombogenesis taking place 2,000 miles to our west tomorrow into Thursday. The system may actually set some low pressure records in the Kansas/Colorado area.
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The EPS at h5 looks nothing like that depiction, lol. Typical overamped op at LR.
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Still have icicles on the protected yews here. Very little melting of them today.
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At least it's only a couple of warm days, then back to winter for an extended period.
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I'll believe it when it shows at day 3, especially this winter with day 6-7 runs.
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GFS (both of them) came in colder for my hood this run vs NAM. GFS at 850 was 2.5°C at 12z hr 54, and now 0.2°C at 18z hr 48. NAM at 18z hr 48 is 3.1°C. It's a battle on which one holds the warmth at bay the longest.
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Agreed. Here are NAM maps from 0z March 2nd, showing both. There was no sleet projected in most of that area from at least Weymouth on north, yet the net positive map cut down the accumulation.
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Here is the updated 18z snowmap:
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CMC caved to GFS. JMA about to do the same.
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I know it's the JMA, but I love that depiction for day 7-8 with the blocking high to our north.
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Visibility lowering and the wet streets are now snow covered.
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Thompson, GA airport, a bit west of Augusta, just reported 0.97" of rain for the last hour. That is some convection down there.
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LOL- Like it has been said, not meaningful until 6 hrs out.
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It looks like all that convection we see now down in GA has disjointed the low, and hopefully won't transfer the main event south.
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My biggest bust was back in February, 1969, also known as the 100 hour storm. The route 128 belt had between 25-40", with a forecast of about a foot or so and not a 4-day storm. Of course there was no effective model guidance back in those days, and satellite images were relied on much more. This picture shows that it wasn't just the Blizzard of 1978 that made a mess of route 128. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1969b.html
