78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Let's keep that bullseye right where it is now.
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Let's lock this up!
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Definitely colder this run.
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Thru 48 hr that high on Euro looks to be continuing to push down.
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Also many times is highly amped.
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Based on that UK snow map posted earlier, a lot of this is rain or a mix for E MA.
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Thermals on CMC at all levels above looked much colder than GFS for entire duration, well below 0C.
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CMC came south, too.
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We might as well have 6 day first alerts warning of 60 mph wind gusts.
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That doesn't say much for the GFS then.
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18z Euro?
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Too much of a hugger this run. Still early in the game.
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The king will soon tell us how much stock to put in that gfs run.
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Your time is coming: "Nhc suggests intensification before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strength until it passes Northern Newfoundland." https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/technical_discussion_e.html
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0z NAM shows a strengthening system after it passes HSE until SE of the Cape. If extrapolated, it looks to turn slightly toward the NNE into NS. The 18z GFS also showed Dorian strengthening but not as much.
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Way west this run- only 100 mi off the elbow. Probably extratropical by then, although still near hurricane strength. ACK with close to 24 hrs of tropical storm winds.
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Can someone explain why when the GFS or many of the other models initialize, that the pressure reading is nowhere near the actual? It shows Dorian strengthening while it is more likely to be weakening as it moves north, especially from where the intensity is now.
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Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1
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Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
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This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.
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I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.
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What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out. If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol. I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.
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It takes people's minds off the tariffs that went into effect today.
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He's not a weather nut like the rest of us.
