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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    Just like the Euro was a mess.
  2. 78Blizzard
    We have already seen most models get away from that inland CT/RI track, so the trend is there. Also, that elongated low seems to have disappeared as well. I'm saying the trend will show up more if the GFS and EURO follow the NAM to the right. I know this isn't good for your hood, but just saying.
  3. 78Blizzard
    It's the trend. If the GFS and Euro both take similar tracks at 18z, it will mark a consensus as we get closer now. Big IF.
  4. 78Blizzard
    By the time the Euro finishes tonight it will be close to 3 AM once you turn your clock ahead.
  5. 78Blizzard
    tossed
  6. 78Blizzard
    If the GFS comes out with a track a little further to the right, even if not as far out as the NAM, many here will be changing their tune.
  7. 78Blizzard
    That's exactly what the storm expert on TWC said late this AM. A slight change in the track to the right would bring heavy snows into the rt 95 corridor. Can it hold?
  8. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, now that some of us, easterners and westerners, have trashed both of their latest runs, who's next to be trashed?
  9. 78Blizzard
    Those kuchera numbers imply a colder system which is the big takeaway from that map.
  10. 78Blizzard
    Ray porked again.
  11. 78Blizzard
    NAM ingesting new data.
  12. 78Blizzard
    Burial for SE MA.
  13. 78Blizzard
    Nice start to the 18z suite.
  14. 78Blizzard
    NAM seems to have lost that elongated low look.
  15. 78Blizzard
    NAM looked warmer earlier in the run, but later it now seems a bit colder at 925.
  16. 78Blizzard
    NAM looks warmer than 12z.
  17. 78Blizzard
    If we are still going with ensembles at this late stage, then the EPS is colder aloft than the op. 850s below 0°C everywhere on the EPS except for a brief period on the outer cape. I expect that the 925s are similar compared to the op.
  18. 78Blizzard
    The Euro had the same QPF here as the GFS, 2.7". The difference is that the GFS kept much of ENE below 0°C at 925, while the Euro did not for much of the time.
  19. 78Blizzard
    Even has 850 0°C line well into CT, RI and se MA.
  20. 78Blizzard
    One of the models was showing that last night, too, although further north.
  21. 78Blizzard
    Agreed.
  22. 78Blizzard
    It may be time to move on from the ensembles now.
  23. 78Blizzard
    The 12z GFS has 925s below 0°C for us throughout the precip, which is why it shows 2.7" in QPF and 27" of snow here.
  24. 78Blizzard
    TWC seems to be ignoring the GFS and Euro, calling for widespread 3-5" east of 495 and 1-3" SE MA, and they are using a benchmark track. They claim surface temps will be too warm for coastal areas. But they leave open the track could change. They say we could get more if the track is further out. Just saying. I'm not buying it. The GFS and Euro have been trending colder.
  25. 78Blizzard
    You could see early on that the northern stream was held back on this run, which is what we wanted.
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