BOS still under a WWA. No update yet from BOX despite these latest runs. Even the mesos have warning snows for BOS. In fact, all 12 different models I have seen have warning snows. Not one has less. I guess they are all wrong.
The 18z was evidence that we can't lock it. But the Hrrr was showing a similar setup at 0z, further E and N from its 18z run, so we have 2 models moving in the right direction to start 0z.
21z RAP just got more bullish for EMA, with 2"/hr rate between 14z and 18z, a total of 8" in that time frame here. Similar outcome in other areas of EMA.
LOL at the NAM. 14" between 12z and 18z with rain at the beginning of that period. 3"+/hr rate at times. According to Pivotal. 3k NAM says not so fast. Just 2".
Approx start time for snow in BOS area based on 12z runs:
GFS- 8-9am
Euro 1-2pm
CMC 3-4pm
UK 1-2pm
NAM 10-11am, but early end based on track.
I'm assuming that due to DST, 18z now means 2pm here.