My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day.
The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out. We've seen that countless times this winter.
Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE.
The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE. A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow. Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps. Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours. It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now.
At least we finally might get some real systems to track instead of these teasers.
That Koochie with 41" here would take care of the snow drought, but I've seen this movie too many times to get all excited at this point. We've seen the GFS track record of 9+day scenarios.
Just a few hours ago the CMC snow maps were subject to ridicule. But now that the Euro shows it, too, we can't post enough snow maps.
I'm with Jerry. It's a 9-day run. Let's see how it looks again in 3 days.
He also said this right after that:
"Wasn't that long ago many were wishcasting this warmth away because the MJO was going to be in phase 8 during early-mid Jan. There isn't a significant signal for Eastern US cold w/ phase 8 MJO, but there's a good/significant chance for warmth if the MJO reaches phase 4-6 in Feb"
One of the mets here was pushing that phase 8 last week.
Given the weeklies track record thus far, I wouldn't put my hopes on them to save this winter. We need extraordinary changes, not just big changes. Big changes have a way of disappearing as we saw in December.
Our snow drought has perhaps led to the Sierra Nevada mountains snow gain. Sierra Nevada snow pack is nearly 200% of its usual level at this time of year.
This could ruin your day on a leisurely drive. Several large boulders that fell onto Highway 50 lie in the street just east of Kyburz during a storm in El Dorado National Park, California, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023. No vehicles were hit.