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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Um no it isn't lol. 50/50 low quickly moving east. The strong ridging east of New England supports a further west track. I'd rather show models being south right now than a bullseye. Remember what happened in December when we thought we'd get the brunt of it.
  2. SnoSki14
    Yeah if that happens Feb will torch.
  3. SnoSki14
    Euros slow bias is in play. The other models are a good bit faster so that the low ends up further offshore. Can't discount it either just yet.
  4. SnoSki14
    QPF outputs still look very disjointed. Hopefully that clears up as we get closer. Risk for 6"+ event increasing.
  5. SnoSki14
    The blocking will stick around and the trough axis will be to our west. Looks like a lot of cold on our side of the globe though. Some tight gradient storms, SWFE are probable but could benefit New England more than us.
  6. SnoSki14
    I'm not sweating on the thermals. We'll have a nice arctic air supply prior to the storm. Unless the low ends up hugging the coast we should be fine.
  7. SnoSki14
    Gfs is still trending south with the system (primary low). It'll be a while before it gets a clue. Suppression is the biggest concern, not thermals.
  8. SnoSki14
    Isotherm's analysis was def reassuring. This is by far the best chance of snow since December. I wouldn't sweat on the details just yet.
  9. SnoSki14
    Seems likely with amplified MJO in 6/7 though -AO could dilute it somewhat. Despite Jan being a mild month overall I did notice the lack of 50+ temperatures we often see due to the AO.
  10. SnoSki14
    You're right. I should clarify that anyone within the immediate NYC metro could be done. There might be a favorable period late Feb-early March but only if the MJO gets into 8. By then you're also working against the clock.
  11. SnoSki14
    That's a big IF. Most keep it in 7 which is warm for us. 1st half of Feb looks like garbage. Maybe it gets to 8 mid Feb but who knows at this point. If we get screwed on this event I'm gonna throw in the towel. We got the blocking this year but everything else has been crap. The pacific has been awful, the blocking was too far south, it's a miracle we scored anything.
  12. SnoSki14
    Non-event for many. Already 35F, radar looks crappy and HRRR shows nothing.
  13. SnoSki14
    Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.
  14. SnoSki14
    Legit or another tease? Odds are better than recent storms.
  15. SnoSki14
    I'll be shocked to get anywhere close to an inch. Looks like mostly a sleet/freezing rain affair south of I-80. Temps will hover near freezing but ground is still cold.
  16. SnoSki14
    The GFS looks like an early spring bowling ball. Very unusual to see this in late Jan.
  17. SnoSki14
    Yup watch that one.
  18. SnoSki14
    The Euro ain't as good as it used to be. It was too cold with the Dec event.
  19. SnoSki14
    CMC/GFS show definite storm signal 29th.
  20. SnoSki14
    I'm keeping an eye on the coastal post 26th threat. Big NAO/AO rise is a good precursor to a coastal storm. Don't think it'll be as suppressed as models currently show.
  21. SnoSki14
    Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart.
  22. SnoSki14
    Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec.
  23. SnoSki14
    A deep western trough will constructively interfere with a strong NAO blocking regime. This is not 2010. There will be ample resistance to the blocking which could benefit us.
  24. SnoSki14
    We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error.
  25. SnoSki14
    The models ramming the block are going to be wrong. I see Miller B or SWFE. Caveats apply this far out.
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