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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Yeah this would be a solid 12-16/18" storm. The lows gonna press against that block hard and I think it'll allow for some very strong bands to develop. A few local spots near 20" wouldn't surprise me.
  2. SnoSki14
    Models haven't wavered much for days, just little ticks here and there. Don't expect any major revelations in the next day or so that would change that.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's my thinking right now and most models share this idea, it's just that they take the low a bit further north before it goes east. I'd be more worried if I lived in SNE.
  4. SnoSki14
    In the end it wasn't much different further north. That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually.
  5. SnoSki14
    I think the worst case for us is an initial thump followed by a mid level dry slot and then some backend snows as the low slides east. I don't see how anyone in the NYC area and nearby counties sees less than 6-10" in this setup even with mixing.
  6. SnoSki14
    Nam still out of its best range but it tends to be very amped beyond 48hrs in general.
  7. SnoSki14
    Nam is garbage outside 36-48 hours. My final prediction is models trend more offshore/south beginning later tonight or tomorrow up until the storm happens. I like a gfs/euro compromise. The high won't be denied. I think some of the people that live further north in SNE are getting gaslit by the more amped models.
  8. SnoSki14
    It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now.
  9. SnoSki14
    Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe.
  10. SnoSki14
    Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north.
  11. SnoSki14
    Today's storm was supposed to keep trending north too and it did to an extent but now it's a lot weaker, further south than initially forecast. I was worried yesterday but I feel good about it today.
  12. SnoSki14
    The storm is likely going to correct south soon. The high is too powerful to the north. A gfs/euro compromise is most likely. I've never seen a case where the low trended north with such a strong CAD in place. What i predict is that certain models will look amped the day before but the storm corrects south & east as it develops.
  13. SnoSki14
    Ukie looks in line with other models.
  14. SnoSki14
    High is too powerful. This wouldn't get north of AC in the worst case and it's more likely to stay just south of Cape May.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yeah it looks really good right now. There's a 50/50 chance the immediate NYC metro ends up jackpotting. Some of the outputs are really impressive. You have the CMC, Euro, Rgem showing 20-24"+ totals now. That's not something that should be taken lightly. And the wind threat is real with the tight gradient.
  16. SnoSki14
    It's a clear outlier and will likely play catch up for a while.
  17. SnoSki14
    I'll take a GFS/Nam combo please.
  18. SnoSki14
    Yeah that was nice lol Good to see the Icon wake up. That high is really quite something and it'll act as a brick wall and help squeeze as much moisture as possible. Someone's gonna see 20"+
  19. SnoSki14
    Hopefully this will give my area a nice 6" snowfall. That's all I ask.
  20. SnoSki14
    Agreed give me a full fledged blizzard any day. Boxing day storm was the most memorable snowstorm in my lifetime due to its ferocious winds, better than Jan 2016 and just squeezing past PD II 2003.
  21. SnoSki14
    Near blizzard conditions are possible in coastal locations. Pretty strong gradient setting up.
  22. SnoSki14
    Side note it hit 62F today. Gotta love how warm the day before a snow event often is and yes don't count out tomorrow.
  23. SnoSki14
    So are you thinking the Ukmet is the way to go?
  24. SnoSki14
    I'm hopeful about this one. There's a small possibility this gives us more snow if Wednesday's storm turns to garbage.
  25. SnoSki14
    Well we have 3 days for it to trend a certain way. It won't be a bust if models show mostly rain by tonight's or tomorrow's runs. If it suddenly went bad 24 hours out or during the storm then I see that as a bust. And if things trend poorly then it is what it is, you can't get upset about the weather. The PNA is not good and the Atlantic blocking may not be enough to save us but we'll see I guess. Someone's gonna get a good storm, it just may not be the immediate NYC metro.
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