SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Euro is a lot closer to CMC than Gfs Looks like it'll be close for Maine. Still we're talking 9/10 days out so a lot will change. The strong ridge building in and potential ULL do seem to be on the table though. A capture is the only thing that will send it towards the east coast.
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There's your capture with the ULL Short term track next 3-4 days will be important. Further south it stays the more likely the CMC scenario could play out.
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Yea if that's correct then it'll def be way east. However the combo of the strong high to the north and ULL could create another system close to shore.
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Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage.
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With a large ridge building in the east and strong ULL moving SW I think it's way too early to say it's going OTS
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It isn't wishcasting it's assessing the pattern.
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10 days out Next run will show a big hit
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The WAR will win the day as it has every time. The fact that it's so far west Day 9/10 should worry people.
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If that cutoff low is real then it's gonna be a problem. Every cutoff has adjusted west over time due to the WAR.
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Nope but thanks for playing
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How low future Sam stays will determine if the Euro is correct. Several troughs will be weakening the ridge to its north and subsequently cause him to head further north but eventually the WAR will rebuild. How far north he gets before the WAR rebuilds will be key.
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Yikes that's an ominous look.
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So far September has been very underwhelming though Larry was impressive. A lot of sheared OTS storms but that's very likely to change and it starts with this system. Although it's likely to go OTS it has a better chance of impacting the islands and even the east coast given the extremely complex setup. A lot of ridges and closed lows will make the track forecasts a lot more challenging than normal.
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There's no agenda, it's called reality. But too many people prefer to live in a fantasy world where science doesn't exist.
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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
SnoSki14 replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
So are there still people downplaying AGW because so far Forky is running up the scoreboard. July like dews deep into September. -
The acceleration in warming over just the last few years has been astounding and terrifying. And the funny thing is that we're probably one of the coolest spot in the country relatively speaking outside parts of the Pacific NW.
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This system will be a problem for someone. Models correcting SW, lots of ridging and closed lows around. EPS is very ominous.
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That could favor Florida to NC as ridge will likely build overhead.
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Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.
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That's a bit ominous. Gfs is much further north and eventually recurves. The diving NAO could be a problem.
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There's the ghost of Peter lurking offshore.
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Things won't change until some devastating consequences are realized. Humans are reactionary not proactive. Additionally once companies' bottom lines get hit via catastrophic climate change effects is when they'll make changes.
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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
SnoSki14 replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
Ensembles are growing stronger with troughing later next week. Huge difference from a few days ago. -
EWR is the only spot that could pull up 90s from now on and even that looks dicey. Models looking a lot more troughy late September so we'd have to have a monster heat ridge in October to get more 90s. Unlikely but not impossible.
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How many decades do you think we have to get decent snows. What's our tipping point?
