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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Best chance for snow will be during the retrogression or the Dec 6-13 period.
  2. SnoSki14
    2nd week of December looks good. Would be shocked if there wasn't a plowable event or two somewhere in the northeast.
  3. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't be quick to assume the 2nd half goes all warm for us. I'm not sure many had the current developments in their forecast. It's difficult to compare this year to 80s analogs given how much has changed over that time. 2nd week of December looks interesting for sure.
  4. SnoSki14
    It's going to take a few days for that to be sorted out. I'd still go with the phased solution rather than whatever the gfs is doing. One thing I'll be keeping an eye on in the ensembles is whether or not the PNA ridge rolls over or not. If it does then we'll warm very quickly by mid December.
  5. SnoSki14
    Unfortunately if the WAR ends up being strong it'll be the Midwest that scores here. Still I'm liking the trends we're seeing. Ensembles are pretty good and actually push ridging further north as we progress in December. I'm stunned we're entering a strong Nina with this look. Very odd.
  6. SnoSki14
    That one seems like a lost cause. A big phaser could be good for us with regards to the pattern in December. 12z GFS OP looked good after the big Nov 30 phaser.
  7. SnoSki14
    Gfs looks good after November 30. Cold air is around, nice ridging up North, I think there's potential for something. You'd probably want a big phaser for that late November storm though.
  8. SnoSki14
    A torched Canada is still cold. EPS/GEFS look good moving forward however there's not a ton of cold to work with. I do like that they're poking further north with the ridging.
  9. SnoSki14
    Things actually don't look horrific for early December. Definite +PNA signal with some ridging extending into AO/NAO regions & less piggish near Alaska.
  10. SnoSki14
    Likely a cutter of course but could be a significant storm that ushers in a decent cold mass early December. Not sure if +PNA is transient. Also noticed AO looking more neutral/negative in the forecast today.
  11. SnoSki14
    MJO will play little to no role here unlike the last couple Decembers which progressed from phases 3-6. Not sure what MJO was in 2011
  12. SnoSki14
    23F right now We'll probably struggle getting this cold in mid January.
  13. SnoSki14
    It def feels very significant after all the warmth. Down to 27F already.
  14. SnoSki14
    Temps will tank tonight. My forecast is 21F and it's 37F currently.
  15. SnoSki14
    I hope we don't have 4 months of March again. There were so many cloudy, dreary 40s & 50s type days last winter.
  16. SnoSki14
    It'll also make ridges harder to sustain. Models are showing a much more variable pattern (still mild) that's not as torchy as we've seen before.
  17. SnoSki14
    This year a mild snow free winter would be a good thing so I'm hoping that's the case. It just seems that's the type of pattern we're in since 2015. It's hard to complain given the winters since 2000 have been mostly very good. It'll be interesting to see if the SE ridge pattern is a mainstay due to AGW or something that lasts several years and reverts back.
  18. SnoSki14
    Winds are quite gusty ahead of the squalls, maybe we'll several 60mph+ gusts after all.
  19. SnoSki14
    I'm guessing we get a few 50mph+ gusts but 60mph will be hard to come by.
  20. SnoSki14
    Well that was an interesting GFS run.
  21. SnoSki14
    Weak MJO signal though. Looks like it may stay in circle. AO/NAO likely to drop to near neutral late November. Several forecasts actually have Dec being the most favorable winter month with Jan a close 2nd. Favorable in this winter will still be unfavorable overall but they'll likely be a few opportunities for snow. The fast flow of the pacific makes it really difficult to forecast anything beyond 5 days.
  22. SnoSki14
    Think maybe the MJOs current favorable passage could set the stage for a more prolonged cooler spell. Of course the EPS could easily flip next run.
  23. SnoSki14
    It won't save you forever or even this winter given the prognostications.
  24. SnoSki14
    So basically a continuation of the past 5 years.
  25. SnoSki14
    This will be a record warm November right. It's supposed to be near 80F again today with more 70s coming. It's absolutely insane.
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