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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Believe it or not I think the post Christmas into Jan 10 period could be favorable for snows even down to us. Will take a while to get cold so after new year's is when I think we get accumulating snows.
  2. SnoSki14
    You're getting 3"+ guaranteed. When the LLJ cranks it'll downpour right over this region. Every model shows this. The slight westward component to the low could mean higher winds as well.
  3. SnoSki14
    This looks more potent than a typical coastal system.
  4. SnoSki14
    That is a beast on radar/vapor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the rare occasion where impacts are worse than forecast.
  5. SnoSki14
    Temperatures are clearly warming but snow trends can vary however there are certain thresholds where that breaks down. Right now NYC's climate is getting closer to what Virginia's was while SNE is getting closer to NYC. The decadal warming trends can't be overlooked.
  6. SnoSki14
    Globals more east though trending west, mesos are west. Given the dynamics with powerful LLJ I'd favor the mesos. Eastern half of NJ, NYC and LI will get a beat down.
  7. SnoSki14
    Those winds are ferocious for the coast. Would easily be able to mix down with the strength of that LLJ
  8. SnoSki14
    Eventually we may have to look at the worst case scenario warming outcomes if this year is any indication
  9. SnoSki14
    That's basically a given nowadays
  10. SnoSki14
    A strong south'easter that pumps us into the 60s would mix some strong winds down.
  11. SnoSki14
    I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag.
  12. SnoSki14
    MJO in the circle and very weak overall. I think that bodes well for a back loaded Nino response if that maintains. I think raindancewx has the right idea which means things will be a lot better than last year.
  13. SnoSki14
    Nino pattern starts kicking in by early January. Seeing heights lower across this region as subtropical jet powers up. MJO does eventually make it to phase 8 too after Christmas. I think mid Jan to mid Feb could be decent. Pattern is a lot different than last year. It's similar to 2015 with a more muted December torch. I like 82-83 too.
  14. SnoSki14
    So much for a Christmas pattern change. Warmth always wins now
  15. SnoSki14
    The CONUS wide warmth on the Euro is insane. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it.
  16. SnoSki14
    We've seen this before in January and already crashed into the upper 40s an hour later.
  17. SnoSki14
    December 2015 really did seem like a tipping point. The temperature acceleration since then has been nothing short of extraordinary. Anyone still denying the warming trend is a complete imbecile.
  18. SnoSki14
    Euro says break out the shades and shorts
  19. SnoSki14
    No torch just somewhat above normal Greatest departures up north
  20. SnoSki14
    I wonder if we'll have another snowless winter
  21. SnoSki14
    Best part of these low snow seasons and warm spells is that JB comes off looking more and more like a baffoon to his climate change denial audience.
  22. SnoSki14
    So we might not see any more snow events if that's the case.
  23. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are very mild mid month. I expect 60s
  24. SnoSki14
    Pretty much though many would still like to see some wintry weather for the holidays.
  25. SnoSki14
    Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration. We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.
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