George001

A few runs of the Euro and a couple mesoscale models did with the 10:1 maps, but I’m guessing ratios were less than that. Also got boned by the sleet line setting up north of here.

Yeah I should have known but still annoying to see the modes printing out 12+ like 2 days from the storm, only for it to cut back a ton and me ending up with like 6-7 inches. What happened to cause this to underperform so much? Low ratios? My area got boned a bit from the sleet but it looks like even north of the pike isn’t getting great snow rates either, which is surprising.

This storm kinda sucks, what a letdown after the models showing a widespread 12+ for days. Still could make a comeback with the second half, but radar looks bad so that’s not looking likely.

I have about 6-7 inches, looks like some sleet is mixing in now. Lets see how the 2nd half of the storm does with the reach around once it goes back to snow. Hoping to get a couple more inches.

Looks good

Pics?

Shit, hope it’s wrong and yesterday’s models with the higher qpf are right. We will find out tomorrow.

Any wetter? These dry as a desert runs are driving me bonkers! The models had a foot plus just yesterday.

I don’t get how guidance is drying up with how the radar looks

Tossed, QPF going to be at least 1.5 inches in the jackpot zones

March 3rd is a legitimate threat. Ensembles have a signal (Miller b nor’easter/blizzard threat). Still need to see improvements with the ridge out west though.

Nice, that would give us a shot at a big one before spring.

Geps looks interesting for early March. Eps a little flatter with the ridge so the energy doesn’t dig enough. If we can get the western ridge to amplify a bit more and link up with the ridge over the north pole, we could see a low appear out of nowhere on the op runs. Feb 28th threat looks dead.

True, but there is a big difference between what the globals and mesoscale models have. Globals are lower with around .8-1 inches of qpf vs like 1.3 to 1.5 inches on the more aggressive mesoscale models. I’m expecting a big shift towards more qpf at 0z, and for the qpf to verify for the most aggressive guidance.

will it be all snow? Maybe not, but that’s an awful lot of moisture. There is every reason to lean high with QPF. A clash of incredibly mild air, the airmass to the south is the same airmass that brought us record warmth yesterday. Then we have a high to the north with arctic air funneling in. I’m convinced that this isn’t a normal overrunning setup, due to the magnitude of the thermal gradient (that meoscale models would be able to do better with), qpf will increase a lot more than what the global models have. Someone up north is going to get buried. South of the pike, it’s more dicey, we are gonna need to rely on dynamic cooling to offset the warm nose aloft.

Nah take em up. The low isn’t going to ram into the high like the nam and rgem think, I don’t buy that at all, it’s going to redevelop and turn into a Miller B.

After seeing all those model runs with 10+ here 6-8 would be a let down. I hope that’s wrong.

If it’s further north wouldnt it be more amped? I haven’t really noticed any trends, tucked south earlier and back north a bit tonight.

Canadian close for the 3rd

What’s the farthest north you guys think this can go at this point? Guidance has been fairly steady the past couple of days.

No changes to this, I’m sticking to my guns. Euro has the right idea imo

Gfs is not part of the big 3. My blend right now is: Navy: 99 Euro: .75 Canadian: .25

Nam is the outlier, probably will correct south in line with other guidance tomorrow.

Ignoring the euro this close in? That’s not a great idea. Could it tick 10 or 20 miles north? Sure. 100 miles though, with a strong high to the north? Nah.

Overrunning/swfe/Miller B look?