George001

I’m starting to get interested in the Sunday system again. Probably not anything big due to how progressive the pattern is, but maybe an outside shot at a few inches.

I buy it to an extent but I agree with the Pope that even if we get it, it’s not a good pattern for SNE. The ridge axis scares me, and the blocking looks weak, too weak to stop storms from running inland. Hopefully Ray is right about the big finish in March.

Im skeptical, it looks like an inland runner pattern with how far west the western ridge axis is. Cold, but with that ridge axis I would think we would be on the east side of the low, and would warm up and rain in time for the storm. Gotta get that to move east.

The theme of the next few weeks looks to be much of the same as it was in December even after the record warmth ends. On the long range models at first glance the long range looks favorable, with a -nao and western ridge. However, the western ridge axis is displaced several hundred miles west of ideal, which supports an inland running track like we saw in December. This isn’t a 2011-2012 winter, but I don’t think it’s going to be a snowy one in SNE. Like 2018-2019, it looks like the dominant storm track will remain to our west meaning we will be looking….. you guessed it, up and in!

Its not just that we aren’t getting blizzards. If it were normal temp with a storm track to the west or hell even somewhat above normal with somewhat below normal to the west, I would not be blaming climate change. The issue is how it’s much easier to get warmth than it is to get cold now. Favorable pattern? -2. Bad pattern? +10.

The west isn’t as cold as we are warm. They are below average, we are record warm. Isn’t the NH snowcover record low right now too?

Eh i don’t think we should ignore the effect of climate change on our weather patterns. Yes, it’s not as simple as “100 years ago this would have been an epic pattern but it sucks now due to climate change”, but when the entire planet is warming like it is that’s going to have a domino effect. Maybe the same physical drivers that lead to x longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to y longwave pattern now. Or maybe the same longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to different results now.

With a high to the north and torched mid levels due to the low location I wonder if we will see a bigger area of sleet or ice rather than just rain se, snow nw. Maybe an ice to rain scenario in SNE?

Looks good for NNE. You thinking we see something similar to the mid Dec storm? Rain most of SNE, big snows NNE and the Berkshires. I’m thinking it’s going to be an elevation and NNE storm, with a low in Chicago.

overnight runs were up and in again. Euro is a hugger (low over central PA), gfs cuts the low to Chicago, Canadian similar to Euro, Icon also similar. Then we have the Navy on its own with more aggressive Miller B redevelopment. Hopefully everything trends towards the Navy but I’m skeptical. Looks like the Pope had the right idea, doesn’t look like an SNE snower but NNE could do well.

That’s not where we want to see the low

The 1/14th threat is….. up and in yet again! Big rainstorm for eastern mass.

Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England.

If we’re seriously looking at 1/20 before a favorable pattern sets in on the models with nothing so far I think it’s time to throw in the towel the next couple years. 2024-2025 has big potential though, we are expected to get a strong Nino next year so we can punt that winter, but following a strong nino is often a strong nina. Strong Ninas after a big nino can be really good due to the left over active stj combined with an active northern branch, leading to multiple big storms. But yeah, that’s the main reason why I had a huge melt, I strongly believe next year will rat due to a strong to super El Niño.

There is a line, but if someone crosses it and is being a dick you bet your ass I’ll be the first person to let them know it.

Eh, it’s all in good fun. Runawayiceberg and Hoarfrosthubb are chill and I’ve had good discussions with both of them. I had high expectations, probably too high and melted because I realize they won’t even come close to being met. If im calling for a massive blizzard and we end up getting a rainstorm, then they will give me a little shit for it. If they say it’s not gonna happen and we get a blizzard, I’ll give them a little shit for it. That’s how this board works, and I like it that way. I have no desire to have people walking on eggshells to try to avoid offending me or others.

Great point, the climate change induced record warm water temps clashing with cold enough air is leading to big lake effect snows in the Buffalo area. In the past 10 years or so it seems like early winter (Dec to mid Jan) is becoming more unfavorable. The ocean temps are warmer during this early part of winter, that has always been climo but when you warm those ocean temps even more due to climate change, that really fucks over coastal areas during this part of the winter. In the second half of winter, those temps cool off, the dominant storm track shifts south and you have canadian air masses clashing with the cooler but still well above normal ocean temps that leads to bigger storms in the second half of winter. Eventually the temps will become so warm that will become unfavorable as well, but for now it almost seems like climate change made December to mid Jan less favorable, and late Jan to mid March climo more favorable for big storms. The data indicates that we have had both more ratters and more big winters than in the past. I wish climate change wasn’t real, and it sucks that it’s happening but I have to say, it’s quite an interesting topic trying to figure out how climate change is currently impacting our winter patterns and how it will change our winters in the future. Long term it will lead to warmer and less snowy winters overall, but there are a lot of nuances ya know? I wish this weather board in general was more open to discussing the role of climate change on our weather rather than people trying to blame everything else and avoid the topic altogether.

People are in denial and looking for reasons to blame everything except the elephant in the room…. Global warming.

I am officially out on this winter. We are entering mid Jan with nothing so far, nothing big on the horizon and are tracking the next pattern change now that the 14th threat went to shit. Even if the SSW shit breaks right, that would get us to what average climo? There is a lag time so if we get an SSW late Jan it won’t be felt until late Feb. If we get an epic March and one decent storm end of Feb the upside is what, 40 inches the entire season? That’s a garbage winter!

Fuck this winter and fuck global warming. It’s always either record warmth or normal to slightly below. We can’t catch a damn break, if this winter rats and then next winter is a moderate or stronger El Niño then we will be waiting until 2025 for the next big winter potential. We need the SSW to save winter now. I had a lot of hope for this threat but it keeps trending in the wrong direction on the models.

ok if the Canadian and gfs are right then yeah rain makes sense. Can’t have a low running inland like that and snow, but there is still time for change.

Gfs is cutting the low to Chicago lol

Back to the storm threat, we need the 50/50 low to come back on the models. That did trend in the wrong direction yesterday.

The expansion of the Hadley Cell like Tip talked about is a threat to humanity as a whole. This year in particular the Hadley Cell seems to have expanded to levels never seen before. While there is only 150 years of recorded data, we can extrapolate farther back via fossil analysis and by studying ice cores. While you are correct that the climate is changing naturally, the data suggests that biggest driver (>90%) of climate change is caused by humans. Even if you think it’s not making any difference for us (I would argue it’s already made a big difference for us and will continue to do so) what about future generations? Im as big of a weenie as anyone, but this is much bigger than just how much snow we will have in our backyards decades later.

No, but that was a super nino.