George001

Agree with most of this, but think the second half of December could be interesting. The 2-3rd threat is real, but id favor NW of both of us for plowable snows at this stage. If we can thread the needle and squeeze out 4-8 inches that would be awesome, but those mild early Dec ocean temps are going to be working against us. Still worth keeping an eye on though.

The modeled pattern now looks more like Dec 07 or Dec 08 than Dec 2010. Still great for northern areas, more dicey SE due to the lack of blocking. @40/70 Benchmark appears to have had the right idea based on recent changes to the long range guidance.

It could get icy at times. That’s the bigger risk than suppression.

It looks like 07-08. I will take my chances with this look ANY DAY over any strong or super Nino December.

I’m not entirely sure, but I’ve heard that guidance struggles the most during seasonal transition periods and during la Nina’s. The struggles during La Niñas I would think is because they are northern energy dominant, and models struggle the most with energy originating from the north as it’s very sparsely populated up there. We are currently in a seasonal transition period and La Niña conditions are present, so I would expect these struggles to continue.

You absolutely could for northern areas, December 2007 is a good example. Depends on where the boundary sets up.

Yes because being rude is a great way to get your point across

The 500mb pattern shown in Roundys post actually looks quite favorable for New England. -EPO/-NAO/-PNA with an SE ridge that does not link up with the block. It’s also worth noting that the -NAO here is more east based than south based like the past few years.

Yeah looks like a solid gradient pattern is coming

I was curious so I looked into it a bit. Following a multi year cold ENSO stretch when it did go warm ENSO, 9/12 times the follow up Nino was a moderate or stronger event. I would bet against a super Nino though, given we just had a +2 ONI peak El Niño 2 years ago. Gun to head, I would bet on our next El Niño being either next year or the year after, and being similar in strength to 02-03 or 09-10.

I’m not sold on El Niño either. Historically year 2 after a strong/super mini goes cold ENSO, year 3 is roughly 50/50 and its year 4 that tilts warm ENSO.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I have heard several long range forecasters favor a more severe winter for New England due to the combination of weak polar vortex and La Niña. It has been a fairly stormy fall pattern this year, very different to what we saw last year with a dry pattern until Feb. I am much more optimistic than usual, but like always we won’t know until it actually happens.

You know your shit and bring a lot to the table in terms of ENSO discussions but dude….. watch it. I don’t like that you are post limited because you actually know what you are talking about, but maybe if you actually tried not being a raging d*ckhead for once in your fucking life things would be better for you here. You are 100% right about misinfo/wishcasters like JB. You aren’t going to actually win in your crusade against these people by being insufferable, you need actual people skills. You want to just call me an idiot and ignore this? Fine, go ahead. I can’t stop you from doing that, I said what needed to be said. Now it’s up to you to decide what you want to do.

Yeah I remember most guidance had November finishing with normal to slightly above normal temps.

BOS: 55-65” NYC: 25-35” PHI: 12-20” DC: 8-15”

We are already seeing some of the differences compared to last year. I don’t remember seeing big snows in the Midwest this early last year.

Yeah it’s a different way of getting there time around because geomag activity is high, not low like it was in 2010. It is my understanding that the expected polar vortex intrusion is being driven by the -QBO (2010 was +QBO) and low North Atlantic sea ice instead. The main reason I like 2010 as an analog though is I see similar potential for the -NAO to amplify the La Niña pattern, leading to a stormy and snowy pattern for northern areas (miller B storm track).

I’m tossing 95 but not 10.

That’s a reasonable assumption to make. I think we will see more bad winters which will drive us crazy, but when things line up….. watch out. I think its coming this year.

There are some really damn good winters in that list

South of NE is more dicey, agree. I like Jan best, but I am not sold on a bad Feb especially for New England and possibly the northern mid atlantic. Gradient patterns can lead to big snows if you are north of the storm track. It is also looking like the polar vortex is going to be especially prone to disruptions this year.

Agree, its no longer a debate whether or not La Niña will develop. We are below the -0.5 threshold on the weeklies in 3 of the 4 ENSO regions, pretty much all the non ONI indices are consistent with La Niña, and the CPC has announced that La Nina conditions are present. So, La Niña is already here. The question is how long does it stay intact and when does it peak? I am hearing some people argue that the La Niña will break down in January and others believe it will remain intact the entire winter. What are your thoughts here? I am very skeptical of the idea it breaks down in January.

Historical precedence argued against this, I remember doing research on this when hearing about all the El Niño hype. 2 years after a strong or super Nino goes -ENSO roughly 80% of the time.

I’m not nearly as negative about Feb as many here, but that surprises me. Just curious, what do you think many of us who are less optimistic about Feb are missing? Or are you just less optimistic about January? edit: I just saw your post raising concerns about the pac jet for January.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of last Feb with storms taking more of a northern track. I am all in on a big January though.