George001

If the nino was going to be strong maybe, but it’s going to be super. That leads to a warm pattern in the east.

Not necessarily true. Some of it is at night yes, but not enough to justify a forecast of even average snowfall for the Boston area with a +4 to +5 temp profile. It’s possible sure, but I would bet on well BN snowfall in the Boston area if we get a +4-5 temp profile in SNE. Now if it’s +2 DJF and the bulk of that is during December, that’s a completely different story. I’m expecting it to be much warmer, but I will acknowledge that is within the realm of possibilities.

1997-1998 and 1972-1973 come to mind, both of which are valid analogs for this season. 97-98 might have had 3, but I’m not sure. Besides, one biggie and 3 advisory events would only get us to climo IF said biggie crushes us. It could easily miss to the south like they often do in strong or super ninos.

Easier said than done to get several advisory events on top of your one biggie that comes with many big nino events (not even a given, just a higher probability than normal) if the temp profile for DJF is +4-+5 (which is what I’m expecting).

Im sure we will have a decent stretch in there, but im expecting it to be more 2015-2016, 2018-2019, etc than 2002-2003.

No, im being realistic and stopped wishcasting. My area averages 40-50 inches of snow per year. I expect 20-30 inches this year with well AN temps, which I think is more than reasonable for a super nino with a -PDO (most good nino analogs are +PDO). Will we have big winters in the future? Yes, but I just don’t think this winter is our year. There is nothing wrong with that.

According to NOAA enso 3.4 averaged +1.3 this past week. That is in line with the more aggressive guidance and puts this nino on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

Normal snowfall for New England in a super nino pattern? I don’t know about that. One storm won’t take us to or over climo like the mid Atlantic. One big storm in a sea of warmth won’t get it done for us.

Ah, well in that case I don’t know about that. I would think it has somewhat of an east tilt even if it does go basin wide based on what Paul Roundy said about how this El Niño is developing.

Nino 1.2 is +3.3, which is well into super territory. Even nino 3 is +1.8, which is high end strong. Nino 3.4 and 4 are moderate and high end weak respectively. You bring up a valid point though, it isn’t as east based as 1997-1998. It’s technically going to be considered basin wide simply because the nino itself is so strong it has no choice but to engulf the whole region, but I do think it will stay east leaning based on what Paul Roundy said.

If we end up at +1.6 ONI yeah I could see maybe a slightly warmer version of his outlook coming to fruition, but the issue is the nino is already +1.2 and it’s only August. Based on that and the recent guidance, it’s probably going to end up more like +2.2 or something. Thats not moderate or even strong, it is super. Super nino = torch in the east.

Maybe not a full on ratter like last year, but since it will be a super nino I would think it makes sense to favor above normal temps and below normal snow for all of SNE until proven otherwise.

I don’t know, the rule of thumb I heard reading seasonal forecasts over the years is Super nino = blowtorch in New England. I don’t buy that we will get both a super nino and a snowy winter regardless of what models show right now. I took the cheese last year when I ignored the modoki nina (unfavorable enso configuration), I’m not doing it again. The nino IS building from east to west just like Paul Roundy said, and the guidance has trended towards a super peak. I just don’t buy that we can have both an east based super nino and a cold, snowy winter in the east. The forcing will move.

Regardless, it will be a super nino. The classical super nino forecast is a blowtorch winter with an increased chance at one huge storm (like 2015-2016). That seems like a reasonable expectation for this coming winter.

In the most recent IRI update, the mean for the dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) to +2.06 (super).

Just took a look, and yep the mean for the IRI dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) in July to +2.06 (super) in August.

I don’t see any reason to doubt the strength of the El Niño at this point. It is already at +1.2 (moderate) in August, and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. And that is only the ENSO 3.4 region, the ENSO 3 region is +1.8 (strong), and the ENSO 1.2 region is +3.3 (super). Even the ENSO 4 region is at +.9, which is weak but considering that this is a classing eastern pacific (EP) event, that is really impressive. I am expecting the next IRI update to show a significant increase in ENSO strength with the mean being a super peak instead of strong. For those who are rooting for a super nino, there is plenty of reason to be excited with how this nino is developing.

A lot of people on this thread owe Paul Roundy an apology!

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

Yeah in SNE we have more room for error than the mid Atlantic, but we still need temps to cooperate at least somewhat (especially if looking for a big winter). Last years temp profile (>+5 AN) is a death sentence even in SNE. +1-2 with lots of precip can work though. That’s why I’m interested to see how this nino develops, a peak of +1.6 vs +2.3 could easily be the difference between an average to decent winter and a ratter for us.

I guess it could be different, but based on how previous east based ninos and super ninos behaved I am concerned. Betting against historical precedent expecting things to be different this time usually doesn’t work out. This is true for most things. I hope im wrong, but I don’t like our odds of having even an average winter never mind a big one this year.

I don’t like how strong the models are projecting the nino to get, and it’s not a modoki either. My concern is that even if things break favorable (I’m not optimistic about that) even the more favorable strong or super nino analogs aren’t all that great (2015-2016, 2009-2010) here. They are mid Atlantic winters. I could be wrong, certainly wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last either. However, based on how things look I’m setting my expectations low and they will remain low until proven otherwise (lots of snow in my backyard, not fantasy blizzards).

Good point. Where you live I would not want anything to do with La Niña, but I would be really excited about this coming winter. I think 2024-2025 could be a really interesting winter if it does become a La Niña. A combination of a traditional La Niña pattern (active northern branch) with leftover STJ from the 2023-2024 super nino could lead to a really good pattern for NYC north. If everything lines up perfectly (weak Nina, super east based) then the mid Atlantic may get involved too, but my gut feeling is if we get a Nina it won’t be anywhere near weak. Im not sure exactly WHY this is (I’ll defer to the experts on that), but historically strong ninas often come after strong or super ninos and vice versa.

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while.

Yeah I’m thinking we get to strong by September and super by November (maybe even late October if the warmer guidance is right). That Paul Roundy guy really knows his shit.