SnowenOutThere

Most important Euro run of the season because this is the only real threat we have had coming up soon.

It is more so the GFS, RGEM (it technically is a weather model) and CMC Vs last night's Euro run along with the NAMs. If the Euro goes in line with the GFS then we might be able to get excited.

Article from Capital Weather Gang on January weather outlook. Calls for near normal snowfall. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/12/31/dc-january-weather-outlook-2022/

If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited.

Its back on the GFS, too far south of course.

Unless it gives us snow

We got 84 hours to make this into pa nj ny storm It’s probably happened before so can’t discount it.

Was about to post but yeah, that would be pretty crazy. Overall a nice improvement on the last couple runs.

18z GFS looking juicy

CMC with the "vodka cold" possibly heading our way

And it’s followed by good cold. One can dream.

Wondering when someone was going to mention that storm, should we use this thread or the December/November one? Does seem like a distant possibility to see some frozen.

How a conversation at the government would go. “But Sir why do we need geoengineering?” ”For the Mid Atlantic snow weenies” ”how have you not been fired yet”

Don’t worry everyone the 18 GFS is cold for Early Jan, cancel winter cancel because we all know the main run of the GFS is never wrong at range.

Basically the MJO is stalled out which affects the pacific jet stream to not extend as much leading to a continuation of the current pattern. Though the MJO should reach where we need it to be but it might not move till early January. My question is: at what point do we say that the MJO won’t progress, as in when do we through in the towel? By New Years if the change has still been kicked down the road?

I may not be the most informed poster here but this is a bit concerning if the models continue kicking the can, or maybe the last two runs are just flukes and it will go back to a Jan 6th transition. If it does not however than we have to realize that this pattern change went from after Christmas to after New Years to now possibly mid month? By that point we might have to accept that nothing will happen if the can kicking continues.

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

For you yes, for areas near the beltway we got sleet and freezing rain.

Against our big rival team tonight. Swimming 50 free 200 free relay and 400 free. These are some events I can get behind, pretty excited.

It’s the miracle storm, that’s it’s name.

Just need to move it up by a day.

12z CMC has the pre Christmas threat far further north like the GFS and a nice all snow start to the potential post Christmas storm.

It is till 7ish days out but ultimately unless there is a huge shift in the guidance soon I fear you are right. We always have next year for a White Christmas.

Made an estimated snowfall program in python yesterday. It takes in the ICON, GFS, EURO and CMC as inputs then weights each of them differently before factoring in how many days out the snowstorm is. For example a snowstorm that is 2 days out gets the mean of the models multiplied by .85. Thinking of adding in a likelihood percentage or something. Anyone have any ideas of what I could add?

Got it, now know which day to wear shorts.