Northof78
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Everything posted by Northof78
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How much did you end up with?
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About 1" here with light snow
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GFS is about 1" - 1.25" QPF for most of forum
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NAM is a nuke for entire region, 2" QPF or more with 850s below 0F all time NYC west, boundary obviously an issue for light stuff before coastal cranks
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NAM cold and around an inch of QPF
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GFS and NAM fairly close in general set up and track now, with a bombing cyclone to our east...If you live north of TTN I think you are good for at least decent snows....
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EURO snow map looks good?
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NAM looks pretty good for #1
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1.3" in Millburn last night, bringing 'season' total to 4.3"
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The prior storm split the 2” or so almost 50/50?
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2.8" final for the storm, and 3.0" for the season, at least got to see heavy/breezy and sticking snow for about an hour this season...
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Wow, EURO 3/4" line all the way down in Monmouth/Mercer
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Meanwhile...Ill take a 1-3" .....Book it!
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Starting Jan 5-8 the pattern looks to turn near average/slightly below average temperature wise and quite stormy...should be a pretty good snow pattern after the 1st week of January
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12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations
Northof78 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Looks like NAM is a blast of snow on front end (at least) for most on the forum...with cold air actually building SW during this period. frozen/freezing line from Sandy Hook due West after much precip already has fallen @ hour 84. Both graphics are from hour 84 on NAM (with 1st being precip that has already fallen)
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Increasing agreement for an impactful winter storm for some (or possibly most of the forum; especially NW) this Thursday and Friday. Strong Block and blocking low, entrenched arctic/cold air with low passing just to our SE or near our area. Should be a mixed bag storm for many with more accumulating snow likely. Below depictions from 12Z GFS. 12z CMC also shows a nice front end dump for many within forum.
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New GFS would almost certainly start as snow for all/most and then transition to a mixed bag, timing of max retrograde of cold/arctic air and 50/50 vs. the incoming moisture will determine who on coast gets material snow, verbatim it has VA/MD/DE getting decent front end snow as well down to the coast, should be a decent winter storm for many on here with the block and embedded arctic air
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Interesting trip into work this morning (Home: Millburn, NJ (just north of 78 and a couple miles W of the Parkway) Work: Oradell, NJ (NE Bergen Country, NJ) Light dusting on car tops @ home, up to light dusting in Short Hills, then 1/8" or so near Turtle Back Zoo, 1/2 - 3/4" or so near Montclair Golf Club, nearing 1" around Verona and close to 1.5" to 2" the rest of the way once to Little Falls to Oradell.
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Has turned to light wet snow now...
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Rain here, but per NWS obs snow line roughly 7-9 miles NW
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Light mostly rain, but some mangled flakes
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Very light 50/50 mix here...
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First flakes for many, accumulating snow for the north, rain for others…latest models looking more robust with precipitation amounts…norlun also possible between C NJ and CT
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Light snow, between 1 -1.5” OTG
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very quick transition to light/mod snow now, windy, no accumulation yet
