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Northof78

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  1. Northof78
    Seems like for the most part the GFS/EURO have been left in the dust with recent storms in terms of being way to supressed/weak. 2-4 days prior to this past storm the fear was light precip and out to sea with little or no coastal, in the end the most snow fell in VT with the metro getting a lot of ice/sleet with tucked in coastal position. Ride the NAM/RGEM/S-T models until they throw you off this winter....
  2. Northof78
    1.2" @ Millburn
  3. Northof78
    EURO a whiff?
  4. Northof78
    Final Prediction: E LI: 1-2" W LI/C NJ Coast: 1-3" NYC/C NJ/NE NJ (inland): 2 - 4" W NJ/ S NY State: 3 - 6"
  5. Northof78
    2-4/3-5"?
  6. Northof78
    GFS/EURO horrible with this storm compares with NAM/RGEM, GFS basically has a coastal hugger at this point with significant precip...borderline warning storm for just inland
  7. Northof78
    12z NAM true coastal...
  8. Northof78
    Nam verbatim is a decent coastal storm with moderate/borderline warning accums inland, light accums at coast, probably too amped, but that is the trend
  9. Northof78
    Looks to be potential for a coating - locally 2" North and very highs winds with arctic front passage tomorrow....
  10. Northof78
    I have a flight as well late the 19th, where you heading...
  11. Northof78
    NAM looks really nice for Tuesday...3-5" through hour 84 for entire forum
  12. Northof78
    90% of the time storms get more amped and N/W from 24/36 and out across the model suite (see last snowstorm), so I think we are in pretty good shape here.
  13. Northof78
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59901-january-6th-winter-storm-observations/ Obs thread started
  14. Northof78
    EWR 35/13, nice airmass
  15. Northof78
    Both GFS/NAM strong signal for front end thump of 2-4/3-6" with no CCB/wraparound which sounds reasonable. Should be a nice storm vs. last 2 years of nothing with some period of moderate/heavy snow.
  16. Northof78
    Front end thump with 2-4"/3-6" probably across most of region.
  17. Northof78
  18. Northof78
    NAM 12Z as expected shifted SE/colder and most precip fall as snow w of Hudson with front end thump, 3-6"/4-8" verbatim
  19. Northof78
    Fresh, cold, dry new infusion in place, everything still seems on track with original forecast for 3-6"+ W GSP/N 78, 1-3" NYC/-I-95, C -1" east of there...enjoy what you get and ignore wobbling models...probably a shift back S/E slightly with 12/18z models as wobbling continues...
  20. Northof78
    GAME ON,; GFS, EURO, RGEM all very close now with N NJ and W metro and NW in a significant snow storm.
  21. Northof78
    Better/Colder Euro run for many, worse for none
  22. Northof78
    RGEM (always one of warmest models) giving good snow to many should be the sign...we are in early January with decent cold/dry/fresh air injected in 1-2 days prior to storm with a good track...we will snow.
  23. Northof78
    Everything still looks good and on track with an increasingly strong storm for 3-6"+ N of 78 and W of GSP, borderline 1-3"/2-4" near NYC, and then sloppy 1" or so W LI N NJ Coast...looks like a really nice storm for many (not all) in the forum.
  24. Northof78
    Looks like 50-100 mile model run flip flopping, but relatively safe to say NJ coast/most of LI 1" or less, NYC borderline but most likely 1-3/2-4" decent storm, once into N/C NJ and NW NJ 3-6/4-8"...
  25. Northof78
    This is a decent airmass, highs in upper 30s and dry will do it every time without too much of an issue in early January
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