Tough to see how anyone in C NJ/N NJ/NYC gets less than about 10” with this storm, despite very different detailed solutions. Despite the GFS, NAM, and EURO being worlds apart in details, all are at least 10” for most of the region....
Although not a gimme, I would be shocked if the centerpoint of heaviest snowfall did'nt drift north over next 2 - 2.5 days, similar to Dec storm (and most others)
GFS close to nice setup for Jan 4/5, with cold (not arctic; but cold) high in southern Canada, 50/50 low, and robust coastal low...still less than a 50/50 chance, but certainly looking better and should be on the radar.