Northof78
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Everything posted by Northof78
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This is the time when you expect all models to converge (2- 2.5 days), and we are seeing just that.... -
I think all models (GFS, EURO, CMC, RGEM, [NAM sortive]) basically narrowing in on a 12-18" storm from C NJ/LI/Metro northward for about 50-75 miles. However yes, the confluence is becoming more pronounced on the northern edge....
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Guessing GFS is roughly 12" to 18" area-wide?
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RGEM & GFS (to an extent the NAM) now in agreement for a MECS nearly area wide, there is a growing concensus of a sharp northern gradient and a pretty 'extreme' confluence cutoff...but likely mostly north of our subforum.
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NAM is colder and further S/E, but still a very odd solution overall without much precip really anywhere (actually surpressed with northern extent of precip)....would lean heavily away from NAM and towards CMC/Euro combo with a touch of GFS