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Everything posted by Northof78
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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
Northof78 replied to HVSnowLover's topic in New York City Metro
I think this will be the bigger storm over the next week, looks like a nice 2 - 4" for most...other looks offshore -
NAM well S/E http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
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Very little sleet with this storm and the thermal profile most likely, either rain, snow, or no for 95% of the precip
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Again, 4"+ thump from about Rt.78 N and NYC area and W. Models are starting to converge on this solution.
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Verbatim new GFS is a hard SNOW thump from about Rt.78 and N
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Great Thump depicted that frame mostly dry slot...maybe a touch of wrap around flurries, etc.
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GFS to my original forecast of 4" or more for I-95 and N/W with at least a strong thump than largely a dryslot with main low precence to our south and east
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A part of me still thinks this could miss SE/OTS, very odd set-up, odd possible tracks/solutions, and huge model disagreement
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Nice thump on GFS with coastal due S of us for a while, ends up still west, but damage is done by then
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About 4" or so verbatim now, but the 'trend' I would think continues of cold air mass recognition as we continue to get closer (somewhat regardless of ultimate L track)
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Yes, not saying all snow...but seems like it would be VERY HARD not to get a at least an intense front end dump with this
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Looking at the set-up, overall map, airmass, and model spread.. fairly safe bet.
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It can and does, but no with this one...too much cold air, too much of a secondary low impulse...to much blocking, not perfect, but enough for a winter storm.
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GFS probably 6-12" snowstorm than dry slot verbatim on the GFS...with a monster/epic front end thump, very cold air well entrenched to start
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