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Northof78

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Everything posted by Northof78

  1. Northof78
    Fresh, cold, dry new infusion in place, everything still seems on track with original forecast for 3-6"+ W GSP/N 78, 1-3" NYC/-I-95, C -1" east of there...enjoy what you get and ignore wobbling models...probably a shift back S/E slightly with 12/18z models as wobbling continues...
  2. Northof78
    GAME ON,; GFS, EURO, RGEM all very close now with N NJ and W metro and NW in a significant snow storm.
  3. Northof78
    Better/Colder Euro run for many, worse for none
  4. Northof78
    RGEM (always one of warmest models) giving good snow to many should be the sign...we are in early January with decent cold/dry/fresh air injected in 1-2 days prior to storm with a good track...we will snow.
  5. Northof78
    Everything still looks good and on track with an increasingly strong storm for 3-6"+ N of 78 and W of GSP, borderline 1-3"/2-4" near NYC, and then sloppy 1" or so W LI N NJ Coast...looks like a really nice storm for many (not all) in the forum.
  6. Northof78
    Looks like 50-100 mile model run flip flopping, but relatively safe to say NJ coast/most of LI 1" or less, NYC borderline but most likely 1-3/2-4" decent storm, once into N/C NJ and NW NJ 3-6/4-8"...
  7. Northof78
    This is a decent airmass, highs in upper 30s and dry will do it every time without too much of an issue in early January
  8. Northof78
    Looks like W of GSP and N of 78, good to go for a SECS; right along 95, tight, but probably decent accums of 2-4", once east of the city/LI/beaches less than 1"
  9. Northof78
    How much did you end up with?
  10. Northof78
    About 1" here with light snow
  11. Northof78
    GFS is about 1" - 1.25" QPF for most of forum
  12. Northof78
    NAM is a nuke for entire region, 2" QPF or more with 850s below 0F all time NYC west, boundary obviously an issue for light stuff before coastal cranks
  13. Northof78
    NAM cold and around an inch of QPF
  14. Northof78
    GFS and NAM fairly close in general set up and track now, with a bombing cyclone to our east...If you live north of TTN I think you are good for at least decent snows....
  15. Northof78
    EURO snow map looks good?
  16. Northof78
    NAM looks pretty good for #1
  17. Northof78
    1.3" in Millburn last night, bringing 'season' total to 4.3"
  18. Northof78
    The prior storm split the 2” or so almost 50/50?
  19. Northof78
    2.8" final for the storm, and 3.0" for the season, at least got to see heavy/breezy and sticking snow for about an hour this season...
  20. Northof78
    Wow, EURO 3/4" line all the way down in Monmouth/Mercer
  21. Northof78
    Meanwhile...Ill take a 1-3" .....Book it!
  22. Northof78
    Starting Jan 5-8 the pattern looks to turn near average/slightly below average temperature wise and quite stormy...should be a pretty good snow pattern after the 1st week of January
  23. Northof78
    Looks like NAM is a blast of snow on front end (at least) for most on the forum...with cold air actually building SW during this period. frozen/freezing line from Sandy Hook due West after much precip already has fallen @ hour 84. Both graphics are from hour 84 on NAM (with 1st being precip that has already fallen)
  24. Northof78
    Increasing agreement for an impactful winter storm for some (or possibly most of the forum; especially NW) this Thursday and Friday. Strong Block and blocking low, entrenched arctic/cold air with low passing just to our SE or near our area. Should be a mixed bag storm for many with more accumulating snow likely. Below depictions from 12Z GFS. 12z CMC also shows a nice front end dump for many within forum.
  25. Northof78
    New GFS would almost certainly start as snow for all/most and then transition to a mixed bag, timing of max retrograde of cold/arctic air and 50/50 vs. the incoming moisture will determine who on coast gets material snow, verbatim it has VA/MD/DE getting decent front end snow as well down to the coast, should be a decent winter storm for many on here with the block and embedded arctic air
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