Ed, snow and hurricane fan

1980 wasn't normal. June 23 to August 3rd, every day above 100*F. I suspect Dallas, and I know Houston, 1980 and 2011 are responsible for a lot of the daily summer records. Weirdly, Houston's all time record of 109*F was set in September, 2000.

June 26, 1980. DFW's 113*F day.

Adrian is bringing the thread back from 8 months of hibernation. The one after is the one that could get close enough to Mexico to be interesting.

Better this week, DPs are mixing down in the afternoon, but last week, Central Texas had temps over 100*F and DPs near 80F in the afternoon. Yesterday in Houston, afternoon dews mixed down into the upper 60s. Apples and oranges to New England, my grandmother didn't have AC. Early days in New England, I don't remember real summer heat before July. July 4th, looking at the GFS, around 90*F in New England except right on the beaches.

Just looking back at the 1980 numbers. Dallas is nowhere near 1980 heat. The hottest temp that year was 113*F.

Welcome back. See above post, I don't see why the Cansips active August before El Nino really kicks in is impossible.

I'm trying to talk my wife into a few days in Galveston. Morning low at Galveston was 83. The dewpoints have been bouncing between 79 and 80 since yesterday afternoon. 89F with 79F dewpoint currently. Beach water temps are perfect for hours of surf fishing. Conditions at GTOT2 as of (10:30 am CDT) 1530 GMT on 06/26/2023: Unit of Measure: Imperial Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] GMT+4 Pakistan Standard [GMT+5] GMT+6 Indochina Time [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12] Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 kts Wind Gust (GST): 9.9 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in Air Temperature (ATMP): 87.3 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts

Not El Nino related, but sub-zero dewpoints in June, is that common in ABQ? I had a job interview across the Rio Grande from Taos 23 years ago, in Winter, and I was able to sour grapes my not getting an offer by dry air irritates my skin, and it would have been very dry. Nice seeing the Rio Grande as a mountain stream, not a slow moving opaque green river.

The death ridge isn't going to last for weeks on end 1980 style.

Canadian Climate Model seems to suggest an active August before El Nino shuts down the hurricane season for the US. Shear doesn't look terrible even later in the season (not attached) in the deep tropics. Just one model, but unless naked swirl Bret can do something in a few days, not seeing much after Cindy dies

Naked swirl, but it overperformed for where and when it formed.

Almost 3 hours no power, but then again, Houston has a third world power grid.

Houston beating Dallas to the first 100° day of the year is not something that happens every year. Only 99° on the hours, will have to see if we reached it between hours. 40% chance of your storms arriving after midnight. (Edited- 114° was all time record tying temp in San Angelo)

San Angelo ties an all time record. 114°

If it survives the shear and dry air in the Caribbean, and doesn't recurve, Bret would head W into Central America/Mexico. GFS and Euro ensembles both support that. The NHC forecast of a weakening system headed for its death in Hispaniola seems likely, Bret reopening into a wave and its remnants into Central America also seems reasonable.

First 100*F day of the year in Houston. Down to 98*.

Watch for Central Texas. 100F temps and mid 70s dew points (99F/76F in Austin) below 8C/Kg lapse rates.

88/81F in Galveston. 88F with an onshore wind is impressive. The Gulf being 84F doesn't help much.

Most GFS ensembles are a 'fish', because most are strong, most Euro ensembles are into the Caribbean, because most are weak. I think strength determines path, but the Lesser Antilles are in decent shape either way, a miss or a weak system. Hispaniola might have flood issues with a weaker system just because it reaches them. GFS and Euro shear and moisture currently looking favorable. Satellite makes me thing it won't close off immediately, but when it does, it could intensify quickly. Or either the GFS family stronger and recurve or the Euro family weaker and make it to the LA seem reasonable.

Pretty sure that is an artifact of Tropical Tidbits display, not the Euro. If the model had a 1024 high, exceptionally high for the deep tropics, the winds around that H would reflect it.

On Euro, 92L stays weak enough to make it to the LA. Dry air and shear are the picadors, Hispaniola is the matador.

I've never heard of the University of Arizona hurricane forecast before. https://news.arizona.edu/story/very-active-hurricane-season-expected-2023-uarizona-experts-say Link is to April forecast.

HWRF for 92L, and some GEFS and ECENS have a friend following in the footsteps of what likely becomes Arlene. Bret.