Ed, snow and hurricane fan

55 mph in Texas in mid-June is not common. Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC035-217-251-110100- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0324.230611T0001Z-230611T0100Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 701 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Johnson County in north central Texas... Eastern Bosque County in central Texas... Hill County in central Texas... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Cleburne State Park, or 15 miles southwest of Cleburne, moving east at 55 mph.

This is interesting.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KFWS/standard Its happening S and W of DFW. The Metroplex itself looks to miss the storms.

JB is apparently saying Modoki.

Appetizer for next week's show, SPC increased size of tornado and sig severe hail on the late morning SWODY2. Airmass just SW of DFW Metro at late afternoon tomorrow with a lot of CAPE, including 1500 J/Kg of down cape. STP of 4, don't see that (or 40 knot deep shear) often in mid June, but there you go. CAMS mixed, as they yesterday, for what turned out to be a pretty decent severe weather (hail, impressive wind, and a lot of lightning damage), and were a bit slow on the arrival. W/NW flow event storms that survive to Houston often arrive earlier than predicted on models.

Primer please. It is clear the positive feedback that strengthens El Nino. What causes El Ninos to fade when they seems to have everything going for them? (From a guy who Googled the definition of GLAAM)

Euro is not that different from the 12Z GFS for the same time.

The trend of later development with each run, so often the case with the GFS when showing spurious cyclones, has paused,in fact, 12Z GFS is actually a bit quicker. Or too early to give up. Also see Euro also has enhanced vorticity in the SW Caribbean. That vorticity moves into C America, maybe it would, in Euro land, become something to watch. I don't have access to ECENS past 240 hours to know. I wonder if the wave analyzed in CIMMS vort products and TPW near 35W is the seed.

0Z GFS storm running about 24 hours behind the 18Z storm. Toggling back and forth on TT. General development and location. Kind of like the 18Z run is close to the 0Z run, except about a day too fast. I've seen this before with the GFS.

Per Twitter I didn't recognize the name, but who ever retweeted him must have been a respected met or climatologist, there are pixels in an North Atlantic SST plot anomaly map that were out of range high. Or I see no obvious reason for a possible record warm SST in the Nino regions not happening Not sure how this affects the Atlantic hurricane season, 2015 was below average but nothing like 1997 or 1982. NYC/NE subforums (childhood connections to both), one heck of a great pattern with confluence and a super juiced SST and incredible dynamic cooling will be required to get snow near sea level, if I had to guess. I saw mention prior of the Mid Atlantic pattern, most of the snow in a season coming in only a couple of events, spreading N, and can see that this winter.

I may sound like Joe Bastardi and I don't trust GFS hour 300 storms, but 1957 as any kind of analog always makes me think of Audrey. Was a Cat 4 before reanalysis, IIRC it was then classified Cat 3 with Cat 2 winds at landfall (with a major hurricane like storm surge)

No MCD before SPC's Central Texas severe watch. I think the severe warnings started earlier than they expected. I wonder if too much reliance on the HRRR. HRRR is still horrible, 17Z at hour zero has the Central Texas storms, and loses them immediately which doesn't seem likely.

14Z HRRR is not showing the storms developing with the vort max at 16Z. I was hoping for guidance as to whether Houston would get one last widespread rainfall before the MEGA DEATH RIDGE starts building in this weekend with temps near 100F and no real rain chance for a week or more. 8 am SPC SWODY1 has Houston *barely* in the SLIGHT RISK, they, NWS HGX and I seem to have the same questions just how far E at 29.8N the MCS will get.

10 or 15 years ago a pro-met poster on this forum, (Dr. Papin IIRC) said the GFS had a simplifying assumption (that is actually an engineering term, used them all the time in college) that heat released by condensation rose vertically with no consideration for wind, so any persistent convection (this was related to something in C. America) would also become warm core on the GFS model, even if upper level winds weren't favorable. I think I remember that right. I would assume in 10 or 15 years an assumption that leads to spurious TCs would have been corrected. But maybe not. I see the ensemble weekly precip anomaly from Tropical Tidnits on the GEFS for a Caribbean system, not so much GEPS or 0Z EPS. But the last few seasons the GFS has scored the win on the Euro more than a few times on distant TC genesis.

I wonder what the money line was on the Patriots beginning of the 4th against Atlanta. But I don't see El Nino blowing the lead.

Reminded of smoke from Central America and S. Mexico in 1998 (fires to open land for agriculture) in South Louisiana in 1998. Edit to add- at least nobody is intentionally destroying tropical rain forest this time

Morning HGX disco talking about 97th percentile on ensemble 850 mb temps. I think an extended period of 100F and greater temps for much of the more densely populated parts of Texas.

The Euro seasonal prediction of a high Atlantic ACE year is supported by the Euro seasonal SLP pressure forecast, but doesn't seem consistent which what appears to be an oncoming strong to Super Nino. I don't trust it.

Early Sunday morning storms poorly forecast. I didn't get out of bed about 3 am, but strong wind blown rain hitting the house, damage up in College Station, (gas station awnings toppled), Kyle Field ASOS 85 mph. ETA- no uprooted trees, but a few bigger limbs down and a lot of branches down.

As someone who lives in a place where the tropics are (almost) as likely to affect my sensible weather as winter precip, the mid-June chi forecast seems a sign of a very Nino influenced MDR season. The Atlantic SST anomalies are probably not going to be the main driver.

Reminds me a bit of posts on S2K and Wunderground 20+ years ago in August when the Gulf was 30C. 'The Gulf is boiling, we are going to have a big storm. It is ready to explode'. Many years in the Gulf, (and would apply basin wide), not so much, if shear over warm water is very strong, if there are planetary wave events (not an expert in wave breaking and the such) are suppressive, than a warmer than normal Atlantic will be suppressed to near normal, or even below normal, activity, even if SST/OHC is otherwise favorable to TCs. The Pacific Basin is larger, intuitive anomalies there would dominate other oceanic basin anomalies. See also 1992 comment, possibility of a 'mega' event tropically if high OHC is undisturbed by TC activity and then one storm gets a window in shear and subsidence to develop. Speaking of 1992, Iniki was so rare, it is a fluke, but I have to assume an East to Central based Nino would favor Hawaii, even if overall odds are low. On the 1997 and 2015 analogue fronts, if they verify, 3 or 4 (we have close to one already) storms from non-tropical origins in June and July seem possible. Those storms may help the season approach normal despite a suppressed MDR ASO.

Early season development from a non-tropical origin resembles 1997 (4 storms) and 2015 (3 storms) where there were MJJ developments before a much below to below average MDR year. July 97 the last of the 4 was Cat 1 Danny that made landfall in Plaquemines Parish.

Airplane this afternoon. Early activity in El Nino from non-tropical origins explained by Dr. Roundy

10/20 lemon in the Gulf, not tropical feature. 1997 Super Nino, 4 June/July storms, none of tropical origin, before the season died, no storms in August, total of 7 for the season. Not sure if there is a link between developing strong to super Ninos and early activity from non-tropical origin.