Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Warm ENSO means a better (if still low) chance of seeing snow IMBY (SE Texas). Cooler and wetter in the cold season. With a bonus that damaging cold is more likely in a cool ENSO. (Houston has had cold below 20F two of the last three Winters, that kind of cold is more like a once every decade or two event, the 2021 cold event had freezing drizzle which sort of looked like snow, but the last Winter with snow was 2017-2018). A quieter hurricane season, I'll be bored looking at the forums (although the last major hurricane to landfall in the HGX CWA was in a strong Nino 40 years ago), but I decided I do not like prolonged periods w/o electricity. Warm ENSO should help the drought.

GFS has been too cool and instability has been too low last few severe outbreaks. 10F warmer, and with some CAPE at BNA Friday evening, this is spooky sounding.

HGX disco suggests >90 F latter half of next week, and SPC has a fairly rare 15% day 7 along the I-35 corridor S Kansas to C Texas.

As an early internet weenie, the mid-long range was the Aviation, then MRF and now GFS. Not sure how much one model rolled into its successor. ETA became the NAM, I get confused about different WRF packages. And there was a model called the NGM that has just apparently died. DGEX, supposedly allowing high resolution forecasts by initializing the NAM or ETA days in the future with MRF or GFS forecasts, that was a fun if not worthless model. There was a trapezoidal variable grid model that ran GFS physics. Nostalgia about models, I swear the old GFDL was better than the HMON. But I could be wrong, there must have been some reason the GFDL was replaced. IIRC, there was also a GFDL ensemble model that had less spread than the op model which was actually a bad thing.

It packs more info into the graphic.

Watch coming. 67F dewpoint at SPS.

Didn't expect this.

In April 2006, three members of the Mammoth Mountain Ski Area ski patrol died while on duty. All three died from suffocation by carbon dioxide when they fell into a fumarole on the slopes of the mountain.[20]

CO2 monitor near the base of chair 19 because of a Mazuku, a CO2 vent that has a 170 acre dead tree zone. It wasn't until 1990, when a Ranger suffered suffocation illness, were CO2 measurements done. Dead trees were then blamed on worsening drought or a pathogen. 700 years since last minor eruption at Mammoth. (Wiki) #TheMoreYouKnow Edit to add from Wiki, 50 to 150 tons of CO2 per day comes the vents.

Probably cycling again, which I think means it isn't on the ground, because the tornado would be in Dallas and Reed Timmer was on some slow moving highways until a minute ago near downtown. Timmer is heading to 45 to head South towards Waxahatchie.

Texas Storm Chasers YouTube using DFW terminal radar picking up a new hook echo with a velocity couplet in Irving which could be headed toward Dallas proper. Just warned.

Is there a video of the TO somewhere? I switched to CBS from the Kansas-Howard game when they mentioned it, (fans in arena roared for a minute and announcers talked about it) CBS crew talked about it for 15 minutes but never showed the play. NVM.

Cell moving into Palo Pinto county getting an interesting look. Edit to add, nobody uses VIL for hail anymore, but over 75 w/ echo top over 42k has to be dropping some major hail.

Model instability forecasts for today have increased substantially in the last 36-48 hours of model runs, including the NAM. 2 to 3K J/Kg CAPE would obviously support severe. I knew watching TWC and reading SPC outlooks Euro instability had to be much higher than GFS instability but I'm not paying for any PPV models at the moment. OT- HGX radar is interesting, a few small heavy elevated cells moving near W to E passing directly over streamer showers moving near N to S. Much heavier echos with the elevated storms. Not sure I've seen that before. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=HGX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad We are at the edge of the Slight. I can upload weather.gov GIF loop but it doesn't show the way it does on DuPage page.

I remember the models lost Boxing Day at 2 days out and then found it again, but maybe it is just old memory, once the models came back, they were pretty close. Even after this event started, things didn't seem well forecast until yesterday morning (general details, not exact snow, but they seemed decent away from the coast generally). Was this that odd of a setup? Apples and oranges, but as more of a tropical weenie, I remember when Euro was the king (240 hour 500 mb showed that the Sandy capture was coming 11-12 days before landfall) of the tropics until all of a sudden it wasn't. I heard they focused more on European weather when changing the model, but I'd think mid-latitude weather is mid-latitude weather, even if mountains, plateaus and valleys in Western North America might result in challenges.

Looking at the NAM, I don't see a lot of stronger tornadoes, myself. Instability just isn't great. I will note SigTors over 2 per the model in North Texas, the dynamics are good. 1 km helicity numbers near 300 m^2/s^2.

Sounds like a fraud to me, but I'm not an atmospheric scientist. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/inside-the-controversial-claim-rocking-the-weather-world/ar-AA18EebC

Another one today. 78 mph gust at SFO and numerous power outages in Alameda (Oakland and the former NAS Alameda, where I had the bad luck to live at off and on for two years.

Is a 10:1 clown really bad (within a realistic time frame, not a week or hour 384), it gives a 'quick look' at what the model thinks will fall as snow, and can be easily adjusted for a different ratio? Just a little more work on a 1 hour or three hour update to trim off QPF when it might be snowing but not sticking.

Cool being able to track a surface low and it isn't even hurricane season.

The low isn't sub 980 mb yet, I'm not sure that ever happens, the NE-SW nipple which I think may be causing the Long Island death band should weaken further, my Weenie vision says/hopes band to the S causing subsidence weakens and band maybe starting offshore rotates into EMA/NEMA and snows. 4-6" would require a miracle, but 1-3", even at BOS on the coast, not impossible

That band curves into Long Island, where ISP is 33F and SN+ and NYC forum posters even on the S. Shore are reporting snow accumulating on grass. Far from the low, which seems to be an sign for 1-3 inch optimism even at BOS as low gets closer and sun angle decreases towards evening.

GFS is still meh with low CAPE and high CINH, but TWC again, from discussion, suggests Euro has enough instability for severe. SPC has a Day 3 slight risk. Decent enough dynamics. I can see Euro bulk shear on PIVOTAL, 50 knot plus bulk shear.