Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Open on last VDM, although that was 5 hours ago.

Good question. I do assume using the GFS to set the conditions near the edges of the nest is related to ending the high res hurricane models early. Not the same model obviously, seeing the HAFS models have ocean-atmosphere coupling the NAM's clearly don't need, but they have to becoming very dependent on the GFS boundary conditions calculated at a lower res. With the HAFs being W of the others when they end, I would want to know how they perform at the end of their runs.

Mute/Block and move on for anyone who insults your family. I also ignore 94 follower teens who use plural pronouns, as if part of a group. I try to ignore anyone with few followers who are full weenie.

Looking at the ensembles and available models after church, I would still bet money that it is far enough E of New England for no more breezes on land (like what I felt in Lafayette, LA during Georges 1998 or 2000, mostly clear skies, but noticeable breezy) but I wouldn't bet big sums. Maybe 30% chance of sensible weather beyond just fresh breezes in New England, and 15% of a landfall. If I weenie after growing up in Massapequa, I go about 5% on Long Island landfall. Hot towers and a warm spot eye on IR, not yet detectable (but should be soon) on visible and the VDM, I think a slow intensification is happening. Maybe gets to Cat 4. Coupled air/ocean HAFS=A models support call for weakening due to Franklin or its own cool wake after getting back to Cat 4. That model (Andy Hazelton must have worked on it, he is proud of it) has been decent so far.. t

Gulf/Caribbean on the ensembles look like February, as far as tropical cyclones go.

I thought I read somewhere this has happened. I might be wrong, but I wouldn't think the op would be an outlier to its ensembles.

Checking JB's Twitter feed now. Edit to Add. A Twitter met who either once posted here or Storm 2K, a Derek Ortt, who has an MS in met with a thesis about the effects of shear on systems with dry air around them, who knows more than I do, says resolutions below 10 km makes for bad tropical forecast solutions. The 3 km hurricane models follow the storms. Ortt works for a 'WxMan57', they sell products mainly to the energy industry, a big part of their business is tropical forecasting.

I didn't think any more were happening after hour 180...

Quick hitting 6 am t-shower (I was watching HGX radar, it popped up overhead while more storms were E) at 6 this morning rained on my house for 5 minutes w/ two rumbles. 106*F yesterday broke the record from the prior day which broke the record from the prior day of hottest temp/latest in the year. Only 99* predicted today in Houston.

It looks like even the GFS ensembles are down to 2 (1 NY, 1 Maine/Canada border) with US landfall. Through hour 180, but I think that shows the only US landfalls the GEFS are going to show EDIT TO ADD: Oops.

I can't remember the name/year (and I figured it was 2 or 3 years either side of 2008 but can't find it on Wiki), a major that entered the Yucatan, wandered for two or three days, and then never strengthened again once over the Gulf on the way North. Lee still has an inner core, unlike that system. But Lee has the above mentioned Franklin wake. It might stay a high end Cat 2/low end Cat 3. NHC is being kind calling a 3, IMHO (even with NOAA 100 kt SFMR). Noticing now chances of a New York/New England landfall seem very low (not impossible, just extremely low) board interest in Lee is back to the regular tropical people.

The eye is becoming apparent in satellite imagery.

It will be close enough to Bermuda, even if 150 miles away, there will be impacts. ECUSA weather on 18Z GFS ensemble mean track, not quite gales just offshore and I bet the surf is enough for beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. I say either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland probably sees a transitioning to post-tropical or post-tropical storm with near hurricane force winds in an expanded wind field. I think op 18Z GFS probably close. New England not safe from a landfall, prior posts on ensembles, maybe a 10 to 20% chance of CONUS landfall. Or US unlikely, Bermuda, small island in a big ocean, medium chance, higher chance of at least some sensible weather beyond a fresh breeze, Canada has a medium to high chance of direct impact.

One- mentioned before, how much should a center drop SLP be adjusted for gale force winds (unless one insists winds turn in a perfect circle a km or 2 apart with little drop of wind inside the very narrow circle and a 30 or 40 not wind is close enough to the center and SLP is the minimum SLP). Or dropsonde pressure isn't exactly in the center and minimum pressure is lower. The JB thing, a strong enough storm's outflow strengthens the ridge to the N/NE, meaning a storm will come further W- if the models can handle ECUSA Nor'Easters pumping the ridge, increasing amplitude and shortening wave lengths, which they usually do (OT- my wife bought me the first and second KU big snowstorms monograph 15 years apart, she loves me), then why would the models be unable to model a strong hurricane 'pumping the ridge'. I don't see why models can't handle a strong storm strengthening ridging, or saying models will miss strong storms moving further W doesn't seem justified.

144 knots, flagged.

145 knot SFMR looking at TT. I'll see if I can find the high density ob exact number. 145 is the top of the scale.

34 knot winds suggests the minimum is lower than that.

Maybe they are farther than 50 miles. Common sight around Houston, big mature thunderhead getting closer, then the cumulus loses it definition, and then the anvil remains, orphaned by its dead parent thunderstorm.

For JB, it's five o'clock somewhere.

I can see isolated thunderstorms leaving 'orphan anvils' as they die ~ 50 miles to the N o Houston

On TV last night they said the 103*F at IAH was the warmest temperature this late in the season. Forecast 104*F today and 105*F tomorrow will obviously become the highest temps this late in the year. Just are per TV some of the high temp records being broken are from 1980. Didn't know that year's heat extended into September.

Joe Bastardi had a similar themed post this afternoon. I am not as familiar with Isabella. I now tend to dismiss JB on Twitter (but still check his feed) as prone to hype. I'm not sure how to balance the 'well, there is a finite chance Lee does make it to CONUS' and view driven retweet fodder. I could be wrong, there isn't a satellite eye I can see (are there any loops of the kind of products Navy Monterey site has?) but my sense is motion is more NW still than WNW.

I'm flipping back and forth, and I see a small position due to slower speed 246 vs. 240 hours, I don't see much of a position change. Bigger miss of Newfoundland in silly season beyond.

I'm guessing it is a bit like how the no longer mentioned (no longer run?) FSU Super Ensemble works(ed), except it uses either the Euro only or the EPS. The FSU model supposedly over time 'learned' model biases in certain situations, and then weighed different models with different weights. If the op or ensemble Euro has a known error mode, I am assuming the program corrects that output as needed. Side note, the NE shear has obviously relaxed looking at the satellite. Looks almost like the best outflow is to the NE.

Verbatim close call NE USA and then Nova Scotia. It looks like the GFS ensembles are again going to be generally E of the op. If anyone has access to the control run at 240 hours, I'd like to know if this a resolution issue.