Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I remember this time of year (lived on Long Island, Grandma in North Quincy) when NYC and BOS could be 20F different because of 'the coastal front'. TV people sometimes called it a 'back door front'. I remember, maybe 1978, actual supercell drifting from the NE down to Long Island along a backdoor front. Seeing a thunderstorm with all its structure, and an anvil, not uncommon in Texas away from the immediate, but rare in the coastal NE.

1969 is an analogue year mentioned by CSU, and despite the Nino (albeit barely a Nino), held the record for most hurricanes until 2005.

Dr. Phil has a doctorate but with a major or super Nino almost inevitable, I think 13 NS doesn't happen unless ENSO busts this Summer. I'd take 1982 or 1997, add 4 or 5 because the 21st Century does seem busier/warmer Atlantic, myself. Majors sounds about right. 1992 is a good example of a dead season with a major US landfall. I don't see normal ACE happening, but I am looking at one factor. The Nino is important, if it fails to develop, the other factors favor an active season (180 ACE is the statistical prediction w/o ENSO). https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-04.pdf

Silly question, how does + and - PDOs effect NorPac and Atlantic TC numbers/strength/preferred location in warm/cool ENSOs?

There is an airport in New Jersey... Much of my weather knowledge is based on internet searches.

Are there any mods who post in the Texas threads? You could start a new 2023 thread and then modify the title next January. Per HGX forecast disco, and recurring for several days, is NBM 3000+ SBCAPE values Saturday ahead of a frontal passage.

I've crossed the Rio Grande on my way to Los Alamos, home of pinon pine pancakes, and going to Mexico, and it is hard to believe it is the same river.

I wasn't watching the Masters, but one of the trees made it on TV.

Insomnia, pinched nerves L-3 to S-1 causing discomfort in the legs.. If 57 is who I think he is (from the Y2K site), he is a Houston based energy meteorologist and a big part of that is GOMEX forecasting. He tends to be correct, if memory serves.

994 mb at landfall in Louisiana (well, it bounces off the coast Tuesday evening (0Z Wednesday)) on 0Z GFS, developing just SE of the base of a 500mb trough that is beyond positive tilt. It starts developing under 60-70 knots of W shear, shear becomes negligible by the landfall or bounce off LA as an upper low forms over the forecast system.

First I heard of this but some GEFS support. AccuWeather. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/rare-april-subtropical-storm-may-brew-in-gulf-of-mexico-next-week/1509005

Quincy in the Central States forum brought up the possibility of a 'CAP Bust' on Sunday or Monday for yesterday, the NAMs hinted at it. Loaded gun forecast soundings but the trigger was never pulled.

I think it was 2006 that UTSA students voted for an increase in student fees to pay for a football team they would never see as students. 2011 was the first season, one or two years FCS and then moved up to bowl subdivision football. They have accomplished a lot in a hurry. I saw them beat UH in Houston. They were the designated sacrificial lambs but went ahead and won. A couple of years before (2012), I saw Texas State, first year in bowl subdivision, also beat UH in Houston. (My wife is a UH alum). The offensive coordinator had a break down during the game, the head coach called the plays.

The Arkansas part of the Moderate Risk never quite overcame the cap. Those storms would have had plenty of instability and vorticity. I'm sure the people of Arkansas don't mind. They've had enough of a tornado season to fill up a year.

Nino thread has the latest Euro ENSO forecasts, and it is about +2 anomaly 3.4 ASO, which would suggest a nearly dead season. The ENSO forecasts get better as the transitional season ends, but the trend has been climbing from a Nino to an all caps NINO. Euro long range looks very dry in the Caribbean and Gulf (rainfall reflects the Nino in the Eq. Pacific), the near normal Atlantic might suggest what little hurricane season happens would be out to sea or East Coast. Not tropical related, but Winter 72-73 mentioned in that thread, and I remember the year w/o a snow day on Long Island.

Ground circulation beneath the funnel.. Rain wrapped and headed for Lewistown.

Using Joe Bastardi and Tolleris as proof the weather community overhyped 2022-23 cold season is kind of weak. It'd be like saying the autistic You Tube guy gives representative forecasts.

The dry polar high to the NW and shear from the W that would have weakened Ian if it has headed for TPA or points North instead provided a high pressure gradient, and the dry air was wrapping in too late to weaken the core before landfall, and the W/SW upper flow to the NW aided outflow. The turn inland maximized Ian's potential. I remember the expectation that it would weaken heading N into the Gulf.

Euro showing consistent 7-9 inches of rain through Friday evening just North of Houston. It has been very dry for several weeks, and the rainfall will be over several days. Still, that rain would be falling over the watershed of the San Jacinto river, which is flood prone. GFS isn't a match, but generally supports the Euro, GFS ensembles have widespread 4 inch rain.

NAMs have impressive instability and shear in the Southern moderate area, but a paltry with storms forming that can take advantage of the conditions. Bit of a loaded gun but the trigger may not be pulled.

Limestone County SE of Waco, tornado warning.

12Z 3 km NAM has a pretty big area with STP 5 or above for several hours in NTX.

FWIW, AccuWeather predicting a near normal season in ACE and numbers, suggestion of a lot of recurves, Florida Peninsula to Carolinas most at risk in Lower 48. Forecast +2C ASO looking at latest posted models from El Nino page would suggest below average. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1503557

@GaWxin El Nino thread notes a recent (2017) April El Niño forecast that did not verify. I don't think the state of ENSO mid to long range forecasts has improved that much in six years.

I added a qualifier about the GFS being too cool and too stable in recent outbreaks. Shear/vorticity are enough with even moderate instability for a significant severe outbreak w/ tornadoes. No potential hazards is based on the GFS forecast of no instability, which is probably wrong.