Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Joe Bastardi's WXBell numbers quoted below and another forecast linked that mentions 2017. JB's ACE forecast gives him pretty wide latitude. 70-110 is probably right. Bastardi sees an above average threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This forecast JB linked (below) has references 2017, (5 majors) although the caveat it may not be as damaging as 2017, more 'fish' storms. https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2023/05/forecasters-2023-will-be-very-active-hurricane-season/385916/

Hatched hail for the Hill Country down to the Mexican border. Waiting for the 12Z CAMs.

It makes sense intuitively, a warm MDR partially offsets the effects of ENSO. Assuming we are heading to 2C super-Nino territory, the numbers of the El NIno years is probably lower, as that number for El Nino is for warm ENSO's that are weak, strong or super. I don't know if there are enough super-Nino years with a warm MDR to derive meaningful numbers.

Noticing #txwx on Twitter and this forum die for Houston or San Antonio weather. East Coast biased forum, and here, very much DFW based.

Judging by radar, decent hail core into NW Bexar County, will affect N Side San Antonio.

59. Old enough to miss school for the Blizzard of '78. Nowhere near as old as Jerry from the New England forum.

My son graduates in 3 weeks from Texas State. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ191&warncounty=TXC209&firewxzone=TXZ191&local_place1=3 Miles E Woodcreek TX&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning&lat=30.034&lon=-98.0629#.ZExGz3bMJFQ

The line is getting linear. Reflectivity still shows a lot of hail. I know VIL is very 2005, but if that is any guide, hail will be reaching Austin/I-35 in the next two hours.

I can't see it, but on YouTube, Reed Timmer thinks he sees a hail and rain wrapped tornado. I don't know why his cell signal is always worse than others. Edit to Add: I know he'd go through 5 or 10 windshields a season for hail, but he has the money to replace them when they get this bad.

One tornado and one severe watch, and a tornado warning already. Radar confirmed near Comanche.

The HRRR seems to suggest I-20 itself may be the effective boundary, which might put some of the bigger Metroplex cities like Arlington in play.

How that didn't produce a tornado, I do not know. I was watching Ryan Hall's YouTube stream, an I thought ACT was in trouble.

I don't know, the storms in the Metroplex seem to be staying near I-20. That could become the effective warm front later. The HRRR is setting up the front closer to US 84 with a super cell with the proverbial gorilla hail near Waco this evening. ETA- Surprised there isn't a severe warning for hail in NE Tarrant County.

10% hatched everything. 'Giant' hail mentioned. FWS disco thinks the risk of convection S of the warm front this afternoon (before the CF approaches in the evening) is conditional, but if they develop they'll be significant. They are planning another balloon launch weather permitting.

Australian model says a super Nino

Day late but 60 dBz is what, basketball sized hail?

Looks interesting.

Rarely chased, not usually tornadic, but the areas S to SW of San Antonio often produce 'gorilla hail' in this kind of situation. Not heavily populated, but if they hit Pearsall or Freer or Benavides or Uvalde or Alice and San Diego, the pictures make social media. A lot of the population in those small towns is in pre-manufactured housing susceptible to large hail. Looking at models when isolated storms might be developing around sunset. 3 km WBZ, 7 to 8C/Km lapse rates just above the surface, 2500 MLCAPE and 50 knots shear. Something to watch. Below, 4.5 inch hail 2013 Benavides. The small towns are few and spread apart, there was a 4 inch hail event SE of San Antonio earlier this year that avoided the small towns.

Not an expert, but I the PDO talk reminded me of the SOI, Nobody talks about it, but Australian government still tracks it. Has been positive, but has started falling. 90 day still positive but the 30 day is negative. I always wondered if that is cause or effect. I lean toward cause because pressure differences would drive the trades. But I could be wrong. But it is part of the name of ENSO, but I don't see it mentioned much anymore.

Tops the one day 17 inch rain totals in a non-tropical system, the 2016 Houston Tax Day Floods. I remember 2015, before I flew to ISP, record non-tropical floods there. No matter what the SSTs were, something may be changing. I suspect in the PWATs. All else being equal, S Florida should have higher single day rainfalls than anywhere in Texas just based on sub-tropical water in almost all compass directions. https://abc13.com/houston-flooding-april-tax-day-flood-24-inches-of-rain-three-brothers-bakery/11752788/#:~:text=HOUSTON%2C Texas (KTRK) --,and around the Houston area.&text=Meyerland resident Dr.,two days all too vividly.

Something to do with WWBs from the context. It was in the El Nino thread.

^^SPC mentions 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE, weak shear, and possible out flow boundary and sea breeze triggers. 40% watch issuance. Several HRRR runs have shown big updraft helicity SE of Houston, where the Gulf boundary would be. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0526.html

The loud (not severe then, now severe in South Central Los Angeles) storms at 5 am locally were not forecast. 3 km NAM has storms at peak heating IMBY. No shear but 5000 J/Kg CAPE, it should only be pusle severe unless there is some enhanced low level vorticity on the outflow boundary from morning storms or the Gulf breeze.

Warm temps probably contributed to dry fuels.