Ed, snow and hurricane fan

The GFS mid-level moisture fields are arguing against the GFS' solution, a hurricane moving through the Florida Straits, with a small bubble of high RH with the storm and a desert on all sides,. It does relax the shear briefly, and I read Derek Ortt's Master's thesis, dry air has limited effect on established TCs if shear is low. The GFS storm also tracks close to the Greater Antilles, so I'm more about the possibility as shown on Euro ensembles and GFS of a storm near Florida 12 or 13 days out. Not worth hyping about, but if El Nino does what I think will do, Nino shear will be building during the approach to the climatalogical peak so much of the season will probably happen in July to mid August. I suppose moving over abnormally warm waters might be how the GFS makes a hurricane in the desert. Not sure if that is valid. And it is more than 10 days out.

11 I don't know if this is mildly weenie, but 11 days out Euro ensembles have a few members near Florida and the Bahamas, and with a window of lower (not low, just lower) shear.

Back when I was a young'un living in Long Island, our house had one window unit in the master bedroom. I lot of nights sleeping in my underpants with an open window and a box fan.

I'm no expert, but going just by chi, the JMA would imply an Atlantic season that doesn't look that unfavorable for a strong El Nino. Since I've returned to the forum (and I remember somebody that seemed a lot like you before), every season is either dead or all the storms recurve. This doesn't fit the narrative. This smells like JB big hurricane season weenie bait. Phase 8 isn't great, but 8 moving into 1, and 1 are generally favorable. You should be against this on principal. Did you under a different name back around 2010 and 2011 frequently post FSU GFS surface pressure maps at two weeks to imply the tropics were dead. EDIT TO ADD: About 40% of Euro ensembles near or in the E. Caribbean at day 10. The Tropical Tidbits Euro ensembles have TCs, some strong, near Florida. If you'll recall, I'm leaning slow season Western Atlantic, but I think I said if anyplace in the US does get hit, it would probably be Florida.

College Station and Huntsville were already AOA 100°, but thanks to cooling Gulf breezes, Houston is only 95° as of 3 pm. Galveston is only 91°, but a dewpoint of 81° is pretty gnarly.

I didn't say just like 1980. It 1980-ish. Dallas 7/15 1978 110° 7/16 1980 108° 7/17 1954 109° 7/18 2022 108° Only one of the days mentioned next week even set the record in 1980. I do, obviously, follow Houston a bit more closely, yesterday's record of 103° was from last year. I don't know why I remember just 2011 and 1980, last summer was pretty darn hot. It might be the accompanying drought I remember. Couple of weeks ago Houston was near/at 100°, but we were close enough to the edge of the ridge we caught storms coming down 45 from Dallas. June 21 one of those round of storms, poorly modeled by the CAMs, brought an all time record 97 mph gust. Broke the record from September 2008.

The good news, the GFS has been about 5° too warm today around Dallas and Houston. The bad news, next week is 109 or 110°F each evening at 7pm. Ballpark 5° correction- 105° for a week sounds like 1980 territory. Houston hasn't been breaking records, and most of them the last few days were from 1980. GEFS suggests maybe better luck with storms riding the ridge as it pushes W after 10 days. GFS operational showing rain cooled 70s and 80s in much of Texas along/E of I-35 for Tuesday July 25th.

Does the blend differentiate between Gulf/Caribbean and the Atlantic? Is there a link? Dr. Klotzbach tweeted about a week ago that the warm MDR should produce ridging with would produce favorable shear in the E part of the basin, accepting that, it could be an active year but very E based. There are transient periods of basin wide hostile shear on the Euro ensembles, but this shows what I think Klotzbach expects. The fact that the ensembles do show periods of high shear even in the E basin, if that continues into primetime ASO, suggests even the E basin will have unfavorable periods which would limit the number and strength of storms. Not attached, but the next 15 days look hostile W of about 50, except the Gulf. That suggests little W of the Lesser Antilles, and any Gulf system would likely be of nontropical origin.

Does Iniki count? I know it tracked well S of Hawaii, over the warmer SSTs and curved N. Memorable for striking Kauai in daylight hours when many people had home video cameras. Pre-cell phone era, but better quality video.

And I was to know you were making fun of Snow86 how, exactly? Reading all the posts down to the his talk of Chinese models, I see it now. Anyway, yep, I'm an idiot, I missed the sarcasm. Happened before, will happen again. 25 years ago people were talking how easy it was to miss sarcasm on the internet, no voice inflections or body language. That is for another thread, maybe in the OT subforum,

Ocean E of the islands is below 26 and the islands of the Big Island have shredded TCs before, but Calvin could be the first US tropical storm of the year.

Maybe I'm missing something, but is this the expected OLR during an El Nino?

My limited understanding is that the location and strength of an MJO and its strength is related to the development of WWB, which can strengthen the El Nino. Or as someone described it a page back, saying MJO talk on an ENSO thread is OT is like saying storm surge discussion on a hurricane thread is OT.

I miss the AOML tropical cyclone heat potential page that had SSTs with an easily read color scale. The UMiami color scale is harder for me to read and the new AOML page is a step backwards. https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html AOML' trashed their website, but the TCHP map looks scary for Florida, I think between El Nino shear and the mean ridge, the season is East based, but I'd think it is possible something gets as far W as Florida during the short windows when shear is low. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is thought to have gone from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 between the Bahamas and the Keys. South Florida is where half of all US Cat 5s had made landfall.

AL 94 now. I don't think it will do much that is exciting. It should use the name 'Don'.

Euro seasonals seem to like an active season in the Eastern part of the basin.

Granted, not a Hollywood blockbuster, but the mentioned subtropical development in a week E of Bermuda already has a lemon. About 10 of the hour 240 Euro ensemble members see the CV system Danny Morris tweeted about. I suspect Nino does limit the season, but a slow July is pretty normal and thus doesn't prove much. Nino limiting the season W of 60W isn't all bad, water off Florida is AOA 30C.

Euro and GFS ensembles showing a possible subptropical development NE of Bermuda in a week. Potential threat to the Azores. Which are like the Hawaiian Islands of the Atlantic. Very infrequent tropical cyclone threat, but active volcanoes. Speaking of stuff (see my above post from Friday) developing in the MDR and hitting a wall of shear if it doesn't recurve, Danny Morris has a Twitter thread Euro weeklies, Euro, GFS and Canadian all have suggestion of something coming off African in 10 days in a favorable environment after a CCKW. Not a lead pipe cinch by any means, not all the ensembles have it, and Euro weeklies suggests the Caribbean, if it doesn't recurve, would have hostile shear. One of the posts below.

2015 season better analog. Little W of 60W. I hope we get some nice Cat 4s at least in the MDR before the recurve or shear. Cool satellite loops. LDub will finally have a season he predicted.

PW of 1.7 (and SBCAPE of 4000 J/Kg) doesn't happen every day in Maine, if I had to guess.

Dr. Phil replied to a Twitter question, defending the CSU forecast with 200 mb height and 200 mb wind maps. Warm water in EATL has raised heights, shear E of 60W will be favorable if the pattern persists. But the pattern suggests even higher than the normally high percentage of storms that recurve, and shear will be generally quite hostile W of 60W. I'd think a decent number of NS and H, but low chance of US landfalls between steering and shear.

Klotzbach doesn't think El Nino will be as strong as some predictions, why his Atlantic ACE forecast is high. The June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (- 2.57) was the most negative June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1894. These strong negative anomalies in the eastern subtropical Pacific tend to favor anomalously strong trade winds across the central tropical Pacific, which is one reason why we do not anticipate that El Niño will become as strong as some of the most aggressive model projections indicate.

Dr. Phil is not backing off the active season. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf

While it seems El Nino won't be quite as extreme as earlier thought, it should be moderate to strong. I'm guessing that is more important than the AMO, and the forecast numbers drop some in the forecast update.

Adrian is the first W. Hemisphere hurricane of 2023.